Türkiye’s Shifting Policies Toward the Cyprus Issue and the Eastern Mediterranean Dispute

Abstract

A main objective of this article is to examine the underlying reasons behind the collapse of the reunification talks on Cyprus aimed at a federal model. Another aim of the article is to analyze Türkiye’s assertive policy in the Eastern Mediterranean. A major argument is that the disruption of the balance of power with respect to the Cyprus problem in favor of the Greek Cypriots after 2004 and the lack of a shared Cypriot identity were fundamental causes of the failure of the talks. The study also contends that the emergence of a siege mentality after the July 2016 coup plot in Türkiye, together with its economic and military strengthening, the rise of multi-polarity in international politics, and diminishing EU political sway in the country, incentivized Türkiye to pursue an active foreign policy agenda in the Eastern Mediterranean. This study concludes that the failure of long-standing negotiations to reach a federal settlement on the island and the comfortable position obtained by the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA) in the negotiations vis-à-vis the Turkish side following the accession to the EU together with Türkiye’s nationalist posture after 2016 and the deepening of the identity dilemma among the Greek and Turkish Cypriots over the course of time induced Türkiye to shelve a federal solution to the Cyprus issue and return to a pre-2002 two-state solution. The article also concludes that Türkiye was further prompted to take an independent course in the Eastern Mediterranean by the combination of a number of factors: the rapprochement between the AKP Government and nationalist elements in the country after the 2016 coup plot, the militarization of its foreign policy, Türkiye’s perception that the West was in decline, the decreased credibility and thus leverage over Türkiye of EU political conditionality, Brussels’ shortcomings regarding a common security and foreign policy and the rise in Türkiye’s military and economic capabilities.

Keywords

• Energy
• the EU
• Turkish foreign policy
• Cyprus

Türkiye’nin Kıbrıs Meselesine ve Doğu Akdeniz Sorununa Karşı Değişen Politikaları

Abstract

Bu makalenin ana amaçlarından birisi federal bir modeli hedefleyen Kıbrıs’ın yeniden birleşme müzakerelerinin çökmesinin ardındaki temel nedenleri incelemektir. Makalenin başka bir amacı Türkiye’nin Doğu Akdeniz’deki etkin politikasını analiz etmektir. Makalenin temel argümanı 2004’ten sonra Kıbrıs probleminde güç dengesinin Kıbrıslı Rumlar lehine bozulmasının ve ortak bir Kıbrıs kimliğinin eksikliğinin görüşmelerin başarısızlığının temel sebepleri olduğudur. Çalışma Temmuz 2016’da Türkiye’deki darbe girişiminden sonra ortaya çıkan kuşatma mantalitesinin, Türkiye’nin ekonomik ve askeri olarak güçlenmesinin, uluslararası politikada çok kutupluluğun ortaya çıkışının ve ülkede AB’nin siyasi etkisinin azalmasının Türkiye’yi Doğu Akdeniz’de aktif bir dış politika izlemeye teşvik ettiğini ileri sürmektedir. Bu çalışma adada federal bir çözüme ulaşmak için uzun süredir devam eden müzakerelerin başarısızlığı ve Kıbrıs Rum Yönetimi’nin AB’ye katıldıktan sonra müzakerelerde Türkiye’ye karşı rahat bir pozisyon elde etmesinin yanında 2016’dan sonra Türkiye’nin milliyetçi bir tutuma sahip olmasının ve zamanla Kıbrıs Türkleri ve Rumları arasında kimlik ikileminin derinleşmesinin Türkiye’nin Kıbrıs meselesine federal bir çözümü rafa kaldırmasına ittiği ve onu 2002 öncesi iki devletli çözüme geri döndürdüğü sonucuna varmıştır. Makale, aynı zamanda, birkaç faktörün bir araya gelmesinin Doğu Akdeniz’de Türkiye’nin bağımsız bir yola girmesine yol açtığı sonucuna varmaktadır : 2016 darbe girişiminden sonra AKP Hükümeti’yle ülkedeki milliyetçi unsurlar arasındaki yakınlaşma, dış politikanın askerileşmesi, Türkiye’nin Batı’nın inişte olduğu konusundaki algısı, AB siyasi koşulluğunun azalan inandırıcılığı ve Türkiye üzerindeki azalan manivela gücü, Brüksel’in ortak bir güvenlik ve dış politika konusundaki eksikleri ve Türkiye’nin askeri ve ekonomik yeteneklerindeki artış. Anahtar Kelimeler: Enerji, AB, Türk dış politikası, Kıbrıs

Keywords

• energy
• the EU
• Turkish foreign policy
• Cyprus

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