Savunma Harcamalarının Makroekonomik Göstergeler-Jeopolitik Risk Ve Politik İstikrar Endeksi ile İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Savunma harcamaları dünya genelinde konjonktürel olarak her dönemde var olan ve ülkelerin kamu harcamalarının büyük bir kısmını oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye kapsamında savunma harcamalarının enflasyon, istihdam, dış ticaret dengesi, gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, jeopolitik risk endeksi ve siyasi istikrar endeksi üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Bulgular, savunma harcamalarından dış ticaret dengesine, jeopolitik risk ve politik istikrar endeksine doğru nedensellik ilişkisi, savunma harcamalarından dış ticaret dengesine doğru pozitif, jeopolitik risk endeksine doğru negatif bir ilişki, gayrisafi yurt içi hasılaya doğru ise eş bütünleşme olduğunu göstermektedir. Ampirik bulgular uzun ve kısa vadede Askeri Keynesyen yaklaşımı desteklemekte, Türkiye'de savunma harcamalarındaki artışın ihracatı artırdığını ve dış ticaret dengesini iyileştirdiğini göstermektedir. Araştırma ve geliştirme faaliyetlerinin artırılması ve daha yüksek yoğunluklu savunma sanayi ürünlerine yatırımı teşvik eden politikaların uygulanması dış ticaret dengesindeki pozitif dışsallıkları artıracaktır. Uzun vadede savunma harcamalarındaki artış, ülkenin güvenlik, ekonomik ve siyasi gerçeklerine olan güveni artırarak ve terörizm riskini azaltarak jeopolitik riskleri azaltma eğiliminde olacağı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Keywords

• Jeopolitik risk endeksi
• Savunma harcamaları
• Politik istikrar endeksi
• ARDL sınır testi
• Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi

The Nexus Between Defense Expenditures, Geopolitical Risk, Political Stability and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

Defense expenditures are an item that exists cyclically throughout the world in every period and covers most of the public expenditures of countries. The effect of defense expenditures on inflation, employment, balance of trade balance, gross domestic product, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index within the scope of Türkiye has been examined. The findings, while the causality relationship from defense spending to balance of trade, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index is determined and there is a positive relationship from defense spending to foreign trade balance and a negative relationship to geopolitical risk index, there is a cointegration towards gross domestic product. Empirical findings support the military Keynesian approach in the long and short term, indicating that the increase in defense expenditures in Türkiye increases exports and the balance of trade. Increasing R&D activities and implementing policies that encourage investment in higher-density defense industry products will increase positive externalities in the balance of trade. Long-term, the rise in defense spending allows one to draw the conclusion that the country tends to lower geopolitical risks by boosting confidence in its political, economic, and security realities and lowering the threat of terrorism.

Keywords

• Geopolitical risk index
• Defense expenditures
• ARDL bounds testing approach
• Political stability index
• Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis

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