The Effects of the NATO-European Divergence on Turkey's Security Architecture

Abstract

This article examines the effects of NATO-EU divergence on Turkey's security architecture from historical, structural, and contemporary perspectives. The tension between NATO's collective defense and the EU's strategic autonomy shapes Turkey's role and security policies. Turkey's defense industry rise, geopolitical position, risks (S-400 crisis, EU exclusion), and opportunities (Black Sea leadership, technological autonomy) are analyzed. In 2025, Trump's withdrawal of Ukraine support deepened the divide, increasing Turkey's importance to the EU, raising demands like visa liberalization and Customs Union revision, and highlighting Turkey's potential in a new world closer to the second group (EU, UK, China) while balancing ties with the first (US, Russia, India, Iran, Israel). Effective management could position Turkey as a global actor, contingent on internal stability, economy, and diplomacy.

Keywords

• NATO-EU divergence
• Turkish security Architecture
• Strategic autonomy
• New World Order
• Geopolitical advantages

NATO-Avrupa Ayrışmasının Türkı̇ye'nı̇n Güvenlı̇k Mı̇marı̇sı̇ Üzerı̇ndekı̇ Etkı̇lerı̇

Abstract

Bu makale, Kuzey Atlantik Antlaşması Örgütü (NATO) ve Avrupa Birliği (AB) ayrışmasının Türkiye’nin güvenlik mimarisine etkilerini tarihsel, yapısal ve güncel açılardan inceler. NATO’nun kolektif savunma yapısı ile AB’nin stratejik özerklik arayışı, Türkiye’nin ittifak içindeki rolünü ve güvenlik politikalarını şekillendirir. Savunma sanayisindeki yükseliş, jeopolitik konum, riskler (S-400 krizi, AB’nin dışlayıcılığı) ve fırsatlar (Karadeniz liderliği, teknolojik özerklik) analiz edilmiştir. Trump’ın Ukrayna desteğini kesmesi ayrışmayı derinleştirirken, Türkiye’nin AB için önemi artmış; vize serbestisi, Gümrük Anlaşması revizyonu gibi talepler gündeme gelmiş ve yeni dünya düzeninde Türkiye’nin ikinci grup (AB, İngiltere, Çin) ile yakın, birinci grup (ABD, Rusya, Hindistan, İran, İsrail) ile dengeli ilişkileri öne çıkmıştır. Türkiye, bu ayrışmayı iyi yönetirse küresel bir aktör olabilir; başarı iç istikrar, ekonomi ve diplomasiye bağlıdır.

Keywords

• NATO-AB ayrışması
• Türk güvenlik mimarisi
• Stratejik özerklik
• Yeni dünya düzeni
• Jeopolitik avantajlar

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