Wagner Yasası Çerçevesinde Kamu Harcamalarının Dönüşümüne Yönelik Ampirik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasındaki ilişki, kamu maliyesi teorisinde tartışılan temel konulardan biridir ve bu ilişkinin en kapsamlı açıklamalarından biri Wagner Yasası tarafından ortaya konulmuştur. Wagner Yasası, ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma ile birlikte devletin ekonomideki rolünün genişlediğini, buna paralel olarak kamu harcamalarının da yükseldiğini ileri sürmektedir. Bu kapsamda, bu çalışmada, Wagner Yasası’nın Musgrave versiyonundan uyarlanan ampirik bir model kullanarak, iki aşamalı Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Moment Yöntemi (System GMM) vasıtasıyla 2008–2022 dönemi boyunca 31 OECD ülkesinde ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Bulgular, Wagner Yasası’nın toplam kamu harcamaları için geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. Ancak, harcama bileşenleri ayrı ayrı ele alındığında, çevre koruma, sosyal koruma ve sağlık harcamaları için yasayı destekleyen istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ilişkiler bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlar, küreselleşme bağlamında devlet harcamalarının değişen işlevleriyle tutarlıdır ve kamu maliyesinde refah ve sürdürülebilirlik odaklı harcama alanlarının giderek daha fazla önem kazandığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Wagner Yasası
• Kamu Harcamaları
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Sistem GMM

An Empirical Analysis of the Transformation of Government Expenditures in the Context of Wagner’s Law

Abstract

The relationship between economic growth and government expenditures is one of the fundamental topics of debate in public finance theory, and one of the most comprehensive explanations of this relationship has been put forward by Wagner’s Law. Wagner’s Law argues that as economic growth and development increase, the role of the government in the economy expands, and that government expenditures rise in parallel with increased income. In this context, this study employs an empirical model adapted from the Musgrave version of Wagner’s Law to examine the relationship between economic growth and government expenditures across 31 OECD countries over the period 2008–2022, using the two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM). The findings indicate that Wagner’s Law does not hold for total government expenditures. However, when expenditure components are considered separately, significant relationships in support of the law were found for environmental protection, social protection, and health expenditures. These results are consistent with the changing functions of the government expenditures in the context of globalization and indicate that welfare- and sustainability-oriented expenditure areas are gaining increasing importance in public finance.

Keywords

• Wagner’s Law
• Government Expenditures
• Economic Growth
• System GMM

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