Turizm Belirsizliği ile BIST 100 ve BIST Turizm Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, turizm belirsizliği ile Türkiye hisse senedi piyasası arasındaki doğrusal olmayan ilişkiyi farklı zaman ufukları ve piyasa koşulları açısından incelemektir. Çalışmada turizm belirsizliğini temsilen Ongan vd. (2026) tarafından geliştirilen GDP Weighted Tourism Uncertainty Index (TUI), Türkiye hisse senedi piyasasını temsilen ise BIST 100 ve BIST Turizm (XTRZM) endekslerinin aylık getirileri kullanılmıştırOcak 2002–Şubat 2025 dönemini kapsayan toplam 278 aylık gözlem, Wavelet Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (WKRLS) yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiş ve böylece değişkenler arasındaki doğrusal olmayan ilişkiler kısa, orta ve uzun dönemli zaman ufuklarında incelenmiştir. Bulgular, TUI ile BIST Turizm getirileri arasındaki negatif ilişkinin özellikle orta vadede ve negatif getiri koşullarında güçlendiğini göstermektedir. TUI ile BIST 100 getirileri arasında ise tüm zaman ufuklarında negatif bir ilişki belirlenirken, bu ilişkinin özellikle uzun vadede ve yüksek getiri düzeylerinde daha güçlü olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çalışma, turizme özgü belirsizlik ile Türkiye hisse senedi piyasası arasındaki doğrusal olmayan ve zaman ufkuna bağlı ilişkileri ortaya koyarak turizm-finans literatürüne yeni ampirik kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Turizm belirsizliği
• Turizm Belirsizlik Endeksi
• BIST 100
• BIST Turizm Endeksi
• WKRLS

The Relationship Between Tourism Uncertainty and The BIST 100 and BIST Tourism Indices: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye

Abstract

This study aims to examine the nonlinear relationship between tourism uncertainty and the Turkish stock market across different time horizons and market conditions. The analysis employs the GDP Weighted Tourism Uncertainty Index (TUI) developed by Ongan et al. (2026) as a measure of tourism uncertainty, while monthly returns of the BIST 100 Index and BIST Tourism Index (XTRZM) are used to represent the Turkish stock market. Monthly data covering the period from January 2002 to February 2025 are analyzed using the Wavelet Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (WKRLS) method, allowing the nonlinear relationships among the variables to be investigated over short-, medium-, and long-term horizons The findings indicate that the negative relationship between TUI and BIST Tourism Index returns is particularly pronounced over the medium-term horizon and during periods of negative returns. A negative relationship is also identified between TUI and BIST 100 returns across all time horizons, with the relationship becoming more pronounced in the long term and at higher return levels. By revealing the nonlinear and time-horizon-dependent relationship between tourism-specific uncertainty and the Turkish stock market, this study contributes new empirical evidence to the tourism-finance literature.

Keywords

• Tourism uncertainty
• Tourism Uncertainty Index
• BIST 100
• BIST Tourism Index
• WKRLS

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