SEÇİMLERDE YAŞANAN OY DEĞİŞKENLİKLERİ

Abstract

This article is aimed at examining what are the common conditions that affect electoral volatility in democratic systems. In the article firstly problems of definition and measurement associated with electoral volatility are discussed. Then the role of the independent voters in electoral volatility, an important factor in electoral inconsistencies, is examined. The correlation between the short-term and long-term factors affecting electoral fluctuations and electoral volatility are tried to be determined, and the effects of low and high volatility upon democratic systems are researched. Lastly examining the electoral volatility and its reasons during the multi-party period of Turkey, it is sought to find out which long and short factors affect electoral volatility in the case of Turkey

Keywords

• Elections, voting behaviour, electoral volatility

SEÇİMLERDE YAŞANAN OY DEĞİŞKENLİKLERİ

Abstract

Bu makale, seçimlerde görülen oy değişkenliklerini belli açılardın incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Makalede öncelikle oy değişkenlikleri ile ilgili tanım ve ölçme sorunlarına değinilmekte, daha sonra oy değişkenliğinde önemli bir faktör olan bağımsız seçmenlerin oy değişkenliğinde oynadığı rol incelenmektedir. Oy değişkenliğine etki eden kısa ve uzun vadeli faktörler de ayrı bir başlık halinde ele alınarak düşük ve yüksek oy dalgalanmalarının demokrasiye yaptığı etkiler araştırılmaktadır. Son olarak uzun bir demokrasi deneyimine sahip olan Batı Avrupa ve ABD örnekleri bağlamında oy değişkenliğindeki genel eğilimlerin belli bir istikrara mı yoksa yüksek bir dalgalanmaya mı yönelmekte olduğu sorusunun cevabı araştırılmaktadır

Keywords

• Seçimler, seçmen davranışları, oy değişkenlikleri

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