TÜRKİYE'DE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ, İSTİHDAM VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN HATA DÜZELTME MODELİYLE ANALİZİ

Abstract

Consumption of electricity has been known in many countries to be correlated with economic activities. The reasons for increase of electricity demand are higher living standards and industrialization. Like in other developing countries, in Turkey, the demand for energy and electricity is growing rapidly due to social and economic developments and increase of the population of the country. In this paper, the Granger causality between electricity consumption, employment and Gross National Product is examined for Turkey using annual data covering the period 1970-2006. As economic growth, employment and electricity consumption variables used in empirical analysis have same order of integration (I(1)), Granger causality test is employed. In this study it was found that bidirectional causal relationship between employment and GNP in the short and long-run. In addition to, unidirectional causality running from GNP and employment to electricity consumption exists in the short and long-run

Keywords

• Electricity Consumption, Growth, Causality, Cointegration, ECM

TÜRKİYE'DE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ, İSTİHDAM VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN HATA DÜZELTME MODELİYLE ANALİZİ

Abstract

Elektrik tüketiminin pek çok ülkede ekonomik aktivitelerle ilişkili olduğu bilinmektedir. Elektiriğe olan talebin sebebi yüksek yaşam standartları ve sanayileşmedir. Diğer gelişmiş ülkelerde olduğu gibi Türkiye’de de enerjiye ve elektriğe olan yüksek talebin nedeni, ülke nüfusundaki artış ve, sosyal ve ekonomik gelişmelerin hızla artmasındandır. Bu makalede, Türkiye’nin 1970-2006 dönemindeki yıllık verilerle elektrik tüketimi, istihdam ve GSMH arasındaki nedensellik araştırıldı. Yapılan analiz sonunda elektrik tüketimi, istihdam ve GSMH değişkenleri aynı derecede (I(1)) bütünleşik olduklarından Granger nedensellik testi uygulandı. Çalışmada, kısa ve uzun dönemde, ekonomik büyümeden ve istihdamdan elektrik tüketimine tek yönlü bir nedesellik tespit edilirken, istihdam ve büyüme arasında iki yönlü nedensellik bulundu

Keywords

• Elektrik Tüketimi, Büyüme, Nedensellik, Eşbütünleşme, HDM

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