BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: 1970–2005 TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

The term of sustainability, about what the economists started to talk from the beginning of 1990s, has became so important and been actual up to now. According to budget policies sustainability is an accomplishment of governments on the administration of their responsibility on public expenditures for today and future. Sustainability of debts points out if the government has power to cover the entire budget deficits and its own debts or the debts are much bigger then government can cover. In another words sustainability of debts help us to be able to measure the possibility of insolvency of governments. If a government is trying to cover its continuous budget deficits with run up debts, this policy will cause rapid increasing in borrowing costs and interest rates and finally this kind of borrowing policy will be failed. There are three methods to measure the sustainability of debts; accounting method, the indicators of sustainability and intertemporal budget constraint theory. In this paper we analyzed that sustainability of Turkish budget deficits with assist of 1970-2005 data and cointegration analysis. Evidences show that the sustainability is weak in the period

Keywords

• Sustainability, intertemporal budget constraint, Ponzi Game, cointegration

BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: 1970–2005 TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

gündeme gelen sürdürülebilirlik olgusu günümüzde hala güncelliğini ve önemini korumaktadır. Bütçe politikaları açısından sürdürülebilirlik hükümetlerin şimdiki ve gelecekteki harcama yükümlülüklerini yönetme yeteneğidir. Sürdürülebilirlik kavramı, açık ve borçların aşırı boyutlarda olup olmadığını ortaya koymakta ve hükümetlerin acze düşme olasılığını göstermektedir. Sürekli olarak açık veren bir ekonomide, hükümetin açıklarını borçlanma yoluyla finanse etmeye çalışması, faiz ve borç yükünün hızla artmasına ve borçlanma politikasının çökmesine yol açacaktır. Sürdürülebilirliğin ölçülmesinde; muhasebe yaklaşımı, sürdürülebilirlik göstergeleri yaklaşımı ve bu çalışmaya temel teşkil edecek olan dönemler arası bütçe kısıtı yaklaşımı olmak üzere üç temel yaklaşım kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1970-2005 dönemi verileri ve eşbütünleşme analizi yardımıyla, Türkiye’nin söz konusu dönemdeki bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği incelenmiştir. Bulgular, ilgili dönemde sürdürülebilirliğin zayıf olduğunu göstermektedir

Keywords

• Sürdürülebilirlik, dönemlerarası bütçe kısıtı, Ponzi Oyunu, eşbütünleşme

References

1. AHMED Shaghil, John H. ROGERS, “Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits: Are Present Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-Term Data?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol:36, 2, 1995. November 1995. pp 351-374
2. AKÇAY O. Cevdet, C. Emre ALPER ve Süleyman ÖZMUCUR, “Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability”, Boğaziçi University Working Papers, No:12, 2001.
3. ARAOZ Florencia Maria, Ana Maria CERRO, Osvaldo MELONI and Tatiana Soria GENTA, “Testing The Sustainability of Argentina Fiscal Policy 1865-2002”, XXII Journadas Anvales de Economia del Banco del Uruguay, 2007.
4. ARESTIS Philip, Andrea CIPOLLINI and Bassam FATTOUH, “Treshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit”, Levy Economics Institute, Economics Working Paper, Archive 358, 2002.
5. BAGLIONI Angelo, Umberto CHERUBINI, “Intertemporal Budget Constraint and Public Debt Sustainability: The Case of Italy”, Applied Economics, Vol:25, Issue 2, February 1993. pp 275-283
6. BUITER Willem H, Urjit R. PATEL, “Debt, Deficits and İnflation: An Application to The Public Finances India”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No:3287, March 1990.
7. BUITER Willem H and Urjit R. PATEL, “India’s Public Finances: Excessive Budget Deficits, A Government- Abused Financial System and Fiscal Rules”, Brookings Institution-NCAER India Policy Forum Second Conference 2005.
8. CUDDINGTON John T., “Analysing The Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 1784, 1997.

9. CROWDER William J., “The US Federal Intertemporal Budget Constraint: Restoring Equilibrium Through Increased Revenues or Decreased Spending?”, Macroeconomics 9702002, EconWPA, February 1997.
10. DE HAAN Jacob and Clemens SİERMANN, “The Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint: An Application for The Netherlands” Public Finance, 48(2), 24-249, 1993.
11. EDWARDS Sebastian, “Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability”, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 8939, May 2002.
12. ENRHART Christophe and Matthieu LLORCA, “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from a Panel of six South Mediterranean Countries”, Applied Economic Letters, 1-7 ifirst, 2007.
13. FEVE Patrick, Pierre-Yves HENIN and Philippe JOLIVALDT, “Feedback Covariates Unit Root Tests An Application to The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy”, CEPREMAP, Cepremap Working Paper Series, (Couverture Orange) Number 9810, 1998.
14. FOUNTAS Stilianos, Jyh-Lin WU, “Are The Greek Budget Deficits Too Large?”, Applied Economic Letters, Volume:3, 1996. pp 487-490
15. GALLI Emma and Fabio PADOVANO, “Sustainability and Determinants of Italian Public Deficits Before and After Maastricht”, CESifp Working Paper, No:1391, January 2005.
16. GEITHNER Timothy, “Assessing Sustainability”, International Monetary Fund, Policy Development and Review Department, May 2002.
17. GÜNAYDIN Emek, Analysing The Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Turkey”, Hazine Dergisi, Sayı 16, 2003. 1-14
18. GÜRBÜZ Yeşim, Thomas JOBERT and Ruhi TUNCER, “Public Debt in Turkey: Evaluation and Perspectives”, Applied Economic Letters, 39, 2007. pp 343-359
19. HAKKIO Craig S., Mark RUSH, “Is The Budget Deficits ‘Too Large?’”, Economic Inquiry, 29, 3, July 1991. pp 429- 445
20. HAMILTON James D, Marjorie A. FLAVIN, “On The Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empiricial Testing”, The American Economic Review, Vol 76, No 4, September 1986. pp 808-819
21. HAUG Alfred A., “Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?”, Economic Inquiry, Volume:33, Issue 1, January 1995. pp 104-118
22. ISSLER Joao Victor and Luiz Renato LIMA, “Public Debt Sustainability and Endogenous Seignorage in Brazil: Time SeriesEvidence From 1947-1992”, Journal of Development Economics, Volume:62, 2000. pp 131-147
23. KALYONCU Hüseyin, “Fiscal Policy Sustainability: Test of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraints”, Applied Economic Letters, 12, 2005. pp 957-962
24. KASHALALA-Tsihiswaka Gauthier, “Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in South Africa? An Application of The Econometric Approach”, University of Pretoria Department of Economcs Working Paper Series, Working Paper:2006-14, June 2006.
25. KIRCHGAESSNER Gebhard and Silika PROHL, “Sustainability of Swiss Fiscal Policy”, CESifo Working Paper, No:1689, March 2006.
26. KOO Chung Mo, “Fiscal Sustainability in The Wake of The Economic Crisis in Korea”, Journal of Asian Economics, Volume:13, 2002. pp 659-669
27. KREMERS Jeroen J.M., “Long-Run Limits on The US Federal Debt”, Economic Letters, Volume:28, İssue:3, January 1988. pp 259-262
28. KUŞTEPELİ Yeşim and Gülcan ÖNEL, “Fiscal Deficit Sustainability with a Structural Break: An Application to Turkey”, Eastern Mediterranean University, Review of Social, Economic and Business Studies, October 2005.
29. LLORCA Matthieu and Srdjan REDZEPAGIC, “Debt Sustainability in The EU New Member States: Empiricial Evidence from a Panel of Eight Central and East European Countries”, Post Communist Economies, Vol 20, No:2 June 2008.
30. MAKRYDAKIS Stelios, Elias TZAVALIS and Athanassios BALFOUSSIAS, “Policy Regime Changes and The Long-Run Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Applicaton to Greece”, Economic Modelling, 16, 1999. pp 71-86
31. MARINHEIRO Carlos Fonseca, “Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective”, CESifo Working Paper, No: 1399, February 2005.
32. MARTIN Gael M., “US Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol:15, No:1, January-February 2000. pp 83-105
33. NEAIME Simon, “Sustainability of Budget Deficits and public Debt in Lebanon: A Stationary and Co-Integration Analysis”, Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Vol:2, No:1, April 2004. pp 43-61
34. OLEKALNS Nilss, Paul CASHIN, “An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy”, The University of Melburne Departments of Economics – Working Paper Series, Number:748, 2000.
35. ÖNEL Gülcan, Utku UTKULU, “Modelling Long Run Sustainability of Turkish External Debt with Stuructural Changes” Economic Modelling, 23, March 2006. pp 669-682
36. ÖZATAY Fatih, “Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Policy, and Inflation Stabilization: The Case of Turkey”, Journal of Policy Modelling, 19 (6), 1997. pp 661-681
37. ÖZMEN Erdal ve Çiğdem İzgi KOĞAR, “The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in Turkey with a Structural Shift”, METU Studies in Development, Vol:25 (1), 1998. 107-127
38. PAYNE James E, Hassan MOHAMMED and Murat ÇAK, “Turkish Budget Deficit Sustainability and The Revenue Expenditure Nexus”, Applied Economics, 40, 2008. pp 823-830
39. QIN Duo, Marie Anne CAGAS, Geoffrey DUCANES, Nedelyn Magtibay-RAMOS and Pilipinas F. QUİSİNG, “Empirical Assessment of Sustainability and Feasibility of Government Debt: The Philippines Case”, University of London Queen Mary Economics Working Paper, No:527, March 2005.
40. QUINTOS Carmela E., “Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Stuructural Shifts”, Journal of Businnes and Economic Statistics, 13, 4, October 1995. pp 409-417
41. SIRIWARDANA Mahinda K.M, “An Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Sri Lanka”, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Staff Studies, Vol 27-28 1997,1998. pp 80-111 (http://www.centralbanklanka.org/saff_studies_vol_27- 28d.PDF)
42. SLACK Enid, Ricahard M BIRD, “The Fiscal Sustainability of The Greater Toronto Area”, International Tax Program, Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, ITP Paper, 0405, February 2004.
43. SMITH Gregor W., Stanley E. ZIN, “Persistent Deficits and The Market Value of Government Debt”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol:6, 1991. pp 31-44
44. TANNER Evan, Peter LIU, “Is The Budget Deficit “Too Large?”: Some Further Evidence”, Economic Inquiry, Volume:32, Issue 3, July 1994. pp 511-518
45. TCA, Treasurer of Commonwealth of Australia, Intergenerational Report 2002-03, Budget Paper No.5, 2002. http://www.budget.gov.au/2002-03/bp5/html/index.html (05.05.2008)
46. TÜSİAD, “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Kamu Borçları, Mali Disiplin Üzerine Gözlemler ve Öneriler”, TÜSİAD – T 96 – 1 / 190, Ocak 1996.
47. TREHAN Bharat, Carl E. WALSH, “Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Application to U.S Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol:23 No:2 May 1991. pp 206-223
48. WILCOX David W., “The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of Present Value Borrowing Constraint”, Journal of Money and Banking, Vol 21, No 3, 1989. pp 291-306
49. WU Jyh-Lin, “Are Budget Deficits “Too Large?”:The Evidence From Taiwan”, Journal of Asian Economics, Volume:9, Issue 3, 1998. pp519-528