Çekim Modeli Uygulanmasında Karşılaşılan Temel Sorunlar ve Ampirik Çözüm Stratejilerine Yönelik Bir Literatür İncelemesi

Abstract

1960’lardan itibaren dış ticaret analizlerinde kullanılmaya başlanan çekim modeli yarım asırdır hem uluslararası hem de bölgesel ticaret ile ilgili ekonomik araştırmalarda en yaygın kullanılan modellerden birisi olmuştur. Bunun ana nedeni modelin dış ticaret analizlerinde teorik altyapısının sağlam ve ampirik açıklama gücünün yüksek olmasıdır. Ancak modelin uygulanması sırasında çok yönlü ticaret direnci, sıfır ticaret akımları, mesafe ve ayrıştırılmış ticaret akımları gibi önemli alanlarda hatalar yapıldığı gözlenmiştir. Bunlar modelin ampirik uygulamasında tahmin sonuçlarını sapmalı ve tutarsız hale getirebilmektedir. Çalışmamız çerçevesinde çekim modelinin uygulanmasında karşılaşılan bu ana sorunlar çeşitli açılardan ele alınmaktadır. Bu sorunların giderilmesine yönelik çözüm stratejilerini içeren kapsamlı bir literatür incelemesi sunulmaktadır.

Keywords

• Çekim modeli,Ticaret Akımları,Ampirik Stratejiler

A Literature Review on the Main Problems and Empirical Solution Strategies in the Application of the Gravity Model

Abstract

The gravity model, which began to be applied in international trade analysis since the 1960s, has been one of the most widely used models in economic research for both international and regional trade for half a century. The main reasons for this are solid theoretical foundation and high degree of empirical explanatory power of the model in international trade analysis. However, it was observed that when applying the model mistakes are made in such important areas as multilateral trade resistance, zero trade flows, distance and disaggregated trade flows. These inaccuracies in empirical application of the model may cause to the biased and inconsistent estimation results. Within the framework of our study, these main problems encountered in the application of the gravity model are considered from various perspectives. A comprehensive literature review of solution strategies to address these issues is presented.

Keywords

• Gravity model,trade flows,empirical strategies

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