Türkiye'de Enerji Talebi Üzerine Ampirik Bir Analiz: Ham Petrol İthalat Talebinin Gelir ve Fiyat Esnekliklerinin Farklı Veri Frekansları İçin Tahmin Edilmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki ham petrol ithalat talebini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ülke, çok sınırlı petrol üretimine sahip olmakla beraber büyüyen ekonomisini ithal edilen petrol arzına bağımlı olarak desteklemektedir. Çalışmamızda, Türkiye’nin ithal ham petrol talebi fiyat ve gelir esnekliklerini farklı veri frekansları için (aylık, çeyreklik, yıllık) hesaplarken veri sıklığının tahminler üzerindeki etkisini inceledik. Araştırmamızda, fiyat ve gelir değişikliklerinin ham petrol ithalat talebi üzerindeki kısa ve uzun vadeli etkilerini gösteren Oto Regresif Gecikmeli Dağıtılmış (ARDL) modelini kullandık. Elde edilen sonuçlar; i) veri sıklığının sıklığının tahmin sürecinde önemli bir rol oynadığını, aylık ve çeyreklik veri modelleri bulgularının uzun dönemde denge durumunda olmasına karşın yıllık veri modelinde dengenin bulunamadığı ii) aylık ve çeyreklik verilerin tahmin edilen fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri mikroekonomik teori ve literatürle uyumludur. Esnek olmayan fiyat esneklikleri tüketicilerin yüksek bağımlılık ve ham petrolün ikamesinin olmaması nedeniyle fiyat değişikliklerine daha az tepki verdiğini gösterirken gelir esnekliklerinin esnek olması, gelir düzeyi arttıkça ham petrol talebinin arttığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Ham Petrol İthalat Esneklikleri
• ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı
• Türkiye
• Veri Frekansı

An Empirical Analysis of Energy Demand in Turkey: Estimating Price and Income Elasticities of Crude Oil With Different Data Frequencies

Abstract

The present study aims to examine crude oil import demand in Turkey. The country has quite limited oil production and is dependent on foreign supply to power its growing economy. We estimate the price and income elasticities of imported crude oil for Turkey exploiting three different data sets (i.e., monthly, quarterly, and annual) to test whether data frequency matters in estimation. We employ an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which shows both short-run and long-run effects of price and income changes on crude oil import demand. Results show that i) data frequency plays an important role in the estimation process as the findings of monthly and quarterly model show a long-run equilibrium while annual models do not and that ii) the estimated elasticities of monthly and quarterly data are in line with microeconomic theory and literature in that price elasticities are inelastic suggesting that consumers are less responsive to the price changes due to high dependency and lack of substitute for crude oil and that income elasticities are elastic suggesting the demand for crude oil increases as income level increases.

Keywords

• Crude Oil Demand Elasticities
• ARDL Bounds Test Approach
• Turkey
• Data Frequency

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