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PHILLIPS “EĞRİ”'SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE

Year 2013, Issue: 37, - , 01.06.2013

Abstract

It is quite important to determine the structure of Phillips curve in macroeconomic policy analysis since it has an information about the trade-off between output and inflation. The aim of this paper is to analyse both the theoretical explanations on nonlinear Phillips curve and their policy implications. In the related literature, it is claimed that the structure of Phillips curve is affected by many factors such as capacity constraints, average inflation, inflation volatility, nominal wage rigidity, imperfect competition, degree of trade openness, financial globalization, central bank independency and exchange rate regime. According to the factors in question nonlinear Phillips curve is modelled as convex, concave or locally linear with a kink. Moreover, the policy implications of nonlinear Phillips curve are different. In contrast to linear Phillips curve, existence of nonlinear Phillips curve implies that the output cost of disinflation depends on the stage of the business cycle, positive and negative demand shocks have different effects on inflation and the timing of policy implication fighting against inflation is an issue for policy authority

References

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  • Gordon, R. J., "Can the Inflation of the 1970s Be Explained?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 1, Brookings Institution, (1977), p. 253-77.
  • Gordon, R. J., "Inflation and Unemployment: Where Is the NAIRU?" Presented at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Meeting of Academic Consultants, Washington, December, (1994).
  • Gordon, R. J., "The Impact of Aggregate Demand on Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity:3 , Brookings Institution, (1975), p. 613-62.
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PHILLIPS “EĞRİ”'SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE

Year 2013, Issue: 37, - , 01.06.2013

Abstract

Üretim-enflasyon arasındaki ödünleme ilişkisi hakkında bilgi içeren Phillips eğrisinin yapısının belirlenmesi, makroekonomik politika analizlerinde büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, gerek Phillips eğrisinin doğrusal olmayan yapısı üzerine yapılan teorik açıklamaları gerekse politika önermelerini ele alarak bütüncül bir doğrusal olmayan Phillips eğrisi analizi yapmaktır. İlgili literatürde çok sayıda unsurun Phillips eğrisinin eğimini etkilediği ileri sürülmektedir. Bu unsurlar arasında kapasite kısıtının varlığı, ortalama enflasyon oranı, enflasyon değişkenliği, parasal ücret katılığı, eksik rekabet koşulları, dışa ticarete açıklık derecesi, finansal küreselleşme, merkez bankası bağımsızlığı ve döviz kuru rejimi bulunmaktadır. Ele alınan faktörlere göre, Phillips eğrisi dışbükey, içbükey veya kırıklı yapıda modellenmektedir. Ayrıca, doğrusal olmayan yapıdaki Phillips eğrisi, doğrusal Phillips eğrisine göre farklı politika önerileri içermektedir. Doğrusal Phillips eğrisinin aksine, doğrusal olmayan Phillips eğrisinin varlığında, ekonominin hangi safhada olduğuna bağlı olarak enflasyonu düşürmenin üretim maliyeti değişmekte, pozitif ve negatif talep şokları enflasyon üzerinde farklı sonuçlar doğurmakta ve enflasyonla mücadelede uygulanacak politikaların zamanlaması politika otoritelerinin dikkate alması gereken bir unsur olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır

References

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  • Andersen, P. S. ve Wascher, W. L. Sacrifice Ratios and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in Conditions of Low Inflation. BIS Working Papers, 82, (1999).
  • Araç, A., Ekonominin Dışa Açıklik Derecesi ve Üretim/Enflasyon Ödünleme Ilişkisi: Teori ve Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama, İktisadi Araştırmalar Vakfı, 2, İstanbul, (2012).
  • Badinger, H., “Globalization, the Output-Inflation Tradeoff, and Inflation,” European Economic Review, 53, 8, (2009), p. 888-907.
  • Ball, L. ve Mankiw, G., “Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations,” The Economic Journal, 104(423), (1994), p. 247-261.
  • Ball, L. What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio? G. Mankiw (Ed.). Monetary Policy s.155-193. Chicago: University of Chicago, (1994).
  • Ball, L., Mankiw, G. ve Romer, D., “The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, (1988), p. 1-82.
  • Barro, R. J. ve Gordon, D. B., “Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, (1983), p. 101-121.
  • Barro, R. J., “Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 2, (1976), p. 1-32.
  • Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. ve Lundblad, C., “Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?” NBER Working Paper, No. 8245, (2001).
  • Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. ve Lundblad, C., “Emerging Equity Market and Economic Development,” NBER Working Paper No. 7763 (2000).
  • Ceccheti, S. ve Rich, R. “Structural Estimates of the US Sacrifice Ratio,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, (1999).
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  • Claessen, Stijn, Demirguc-Kunt, ve H. Huizinga, “How Does Foreign Affect Domestic Banking Markets?” Journal of Banking and Finance, 25, (2001), p. 891-911.
  • Clark, P.B., Laxton, D., Rose, D., “Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Infation Nexus: Issues and Evidence,” IMF Staf Paper 43, International Monetary Fund, Washington, (1996).
  • Clements, M. ve Sensier, M., “Asymmetric Output-Gap Effects in Phillips Curve and Mark-up Pricing Models: Evidence for the US and the UK,” Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 50(4), (2003), p. 359-374.
  • Cover, J. P., “Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(4), (1992), p. 1261-1282.
  • Cuikerman, A., Webb, S. ve Neyaptı, B., “Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes,” World Bank Economic Review, 6, . (1992), p. 353-398.
  • Cukierman, A., Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, (1992).
  • Cunado, J. ve. De Gracia, F. P., “Sacrifice Ratios: Some Lessons from EMU Countries, 1960-2001,” International Review of Applied Economics, 17(3), (2003), p. 327-337.
  • Daniels, J. R, Nourzad, F. ve Vanhoose, D. D., “Openness, Central Bank Independence and the Sacrifice Ratio,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 37(2), (2005), p. 371-379.
  • De Long, J. B. ve Summers, L. H., “How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, (1988), p. 433–80.
  • Debelle, G. ve D. Laxton, D. “Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States,” IMF Staff Papers, 44(2), (1997), p. 249-282.
  • Debelle, G. ve Fischer, S., “How Independent a Central Bank Be?” in (J.C. Fuhrer, ed.) Goals, Guidlines and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, (1994).
  • Debelle, G. ve Vickery, J., “Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia,” The Economic Record, 74(227), (1998), p. 384-98.
  • Dupasquier, C. ve Ricketts, N., “Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationships: Some Empirical Results for Canada,” Bank of Canada Working Paper, 14 (1998).
  • Eisner, R., “New View of the NAIRU,” In: Paul Davidson and Jan A. Kregel (Eds.), Improving the Global Economy: Keynesian and the Growth in Output and Employment. Edward Elgar Publishing Cheltenham: UK and Lyme, U.S., (1997).
  • Filardo, A. J., “New Evidence on The Output Cost of Fighting Inflation,” Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, (1998), p. 33-61.
  • Fisher, T.C.G., “Efficiency Wages: A Literature Survey”, Working Paper, No. 89-5, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, (1989).
  • Froyen, R. T. ve Waud, R. N., “Central Bank Independence and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff,” Journal of Economic and Business, 47(2), (1995), p. 137-149.
  • Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., "The Phillips Curve Is Alive and Well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston( March/April), (1995), 41-56.
  • Gordon , Robert J., "The Recent Acceleration of Inflation and Its Lessons for the Future," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 1, Brookings Institution, (1970), p. 8-41.
  • Gordon, R. J. ve King, S. R., “The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, (1982), p. 205-244.
  • Gordon, R. J., "Can the Inflation of the 1970s Be Explained?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: 1, Brookings Institution, (1977), p. 253-77.
  • Gordon, R. J., "Inflation and Unemployment: Where Is the NAIRU?" Presented at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Meeting of Academic Consultants, Washington, December, (1994).
  • Gordon, R. J., "The Impact of Aggregate Demand on Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity:3 , Brookings Institution, (1975), p. 613-62.
  • Gordon, R.J., “The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, (1997), p. 11-32.
  • Grilli, V., Masciandro, D. ve Tabellini, G., “Political and Monetary Institutions and Public Finance Policies in the Industrial Countries,” Economic Policy, 13, (1991), p. 341-392.
  • Gruben, W.C. ve McLeod, D., “Capital Account Liberalization and Inflation,” Economics Letters, 77 (2002), p. 221– 225.
  • Guender, A. V. ve McCaw, S., “The Role of Openness in The Debate on Rules vs. Discreation: A Simple Exposition,” Australian Economic Papers, March, (2001), p. 91-110.
  • Hasanov, M., Araç, A. ve Telatar, F., “Nonlinearity and Structural Stability in The Phillips Curve: Evidence from Turkey,” Economic Modelling, , (September 2010), p. 1103–1115.
  • Helbling, T., Jaumotte, F. ve Sommer, M., “How Has Globalization Affected Inflation?”, Chapter III, in IMF World Economic Outlook, Globalization and Inflation, (2006).
  • Henry, P.B., “Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices,” The Journal of Finance, Vol.55, No.2, (2000), p. 529-564.
  • Hofstetter, M., “Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Free Lunch?” Journal of Macroeconomics, 30, (2008), p. 327-345.
  • Huh, H. ve Lee, H., “Asymmetric Output Cost of Lowering Inflation: Empirical Evidence for Canada,” Canadian Journal of Economics, , 35, 2, (2002), p. 218-38.
  • Humphrey, T. M., From Trade-offs to Policy Ineffectiveness: A History of the Phillips Curve. Richmond, Virginia (United States): Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, (1986).
  • Jordan, T. J., “Central Bank Independence and the Sacrifice Ratio,” European Journal of Political Economy, 15, (1999), p. 229-255.
  • Jordan, T., “Disinflation Costs, Accelerating Inflation Gains and Central Bank Independence,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 133, (1997), p. 1-21.
  • Karras, G. ve Stokes, H. H., “Why are the Effecsts of Money-Supply Shocks Asymmetric? Evidence from Prices, Consumption, and Investment,” Journal of Macroeconomics, 21(4), (1999), p. 713-727.
  • Karras, G., “Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence From a Sample of European Countries,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 58(2), (1996), p. 267-542.
  • King, R. ve Watson, M., “The Post War Us Phillips Curve: A Revisionist Econometric History,” Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, 41, (1994), p. 157–219.
  • Kuştepeli, Y., “A Comprehensive Short-Run Analysis of a (Possible) Turkish Phillips Curve,” Applied Economics, 37, 5, (2005), p. 581-591.
  • Laxton, D., Meredith, G. ve Rose D., “Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications,” International Monetary Fund, 42, 2, Jun., (1995), p. 344-374.
  • Laxton, D., Rose, D. ve Tambakis, D., “The U.S. Phillips curve: The Case for Asymmetry,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23(9), (1999), p. 1459-1485.
  • Laxton, Douglas, David Rose, and Robert Tetlow, "Problems in Identifying Non-Linear Phillips Curves: Some Further Consequences of Mismeasuring Potential Output," Bank of Canada Working Paper 93-6 (Ottawa: Bank of Canada, June 1993).
  • Lucas, R. E. Jr., “Expectations and the Neutrality of Money,” Journal of Economic Theory, 4, (1972), p. 103-24.
  • Lucas, R. E., “Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs,” The American Economic Review, 63(3), (1973), p. 326-334.
  • Lundbergh S., Teräsvirta, T. ve van Dijk D. , “Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21 (2003), p. 104–121.
  • Masson, P. R. ve Meredith, G., "Economic Implications of German Unification for the Federal Republic and the Rest of the World," IMF Working Paper 90/85, (1990).
  • Mckinnon, Ronald I., Money and Capital In Economic Development, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, (1973).
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Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

AYŞEN Araç This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2013
Published in Issue Year 2013 Issue: 37

Cite

APA Araç, A. (2013). PHILLIPS “EĞRİ”’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(37).
AMA Araç A. PHILLIPS “EĞRİ”’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. June 2013;(37).
Chicago Araç, AYŞEN. “PHILLIPS ‘EĞRİ’’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, no. 37 (June 2013).
EndNote Araç A (June 1, 2013) PHILLIPS “EĞRİ”’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 37
IEEE A. Araç, “PHILLIPS ‘EĞRİ’’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, no. 37, June 2013.
ISNAD Araç, AYŞEN. “PHILLIPS ‘EĞRİ’’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 37 (June 2013).
JAMA Araç A. PHILLIPS “EĞRİ”’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2013.
MLA Araç, AYŞEN. “PHILLIPS ‘EĞRİ’’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, no. 37, 2013.
Vancouver Araç A. PHILLIPS “EĞRİ”’SİNİN DOĞRUSAL OLMAYAN YAPISI ÜZERİNE. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2013(37).

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