21.SEKTÖREL REEL DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞI İTHALAT HACMİNİ ETKİLER Mİ? TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Year 2015, Issue: 43, 0 - 0, 20.06.2015

Esin Kılıç , Kemal Yıldırım

Abstract

Since 1973, when the fixed exchange rate system applications were abandoned, significant exchange rate fluctuations have been observed. This situation has caused that the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade is a frequently investigated subject in theoretical and empirical studies. However, there is no consensus on the existence of the relationship between foreign trade and exchange rate volatility in the studies in the literature. This study investigates the effects of real effective exchange rate volatility on Turkey’s import volume. Panel data analysis results which was carried out using 22 manufacturing sub-sector data shows that exchange rate volatility does not have a statistically significant effect on the volume of imports in the period of 2005:Q1-2012:Q2

Keywords

Sectoral real exchange rate volatility, import volume, panel data analysis

21.SEKTÖREL REEL DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞI İTHALAT HACMİNİ ETKİLER Mİ? TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Abstract

Sabit döviz kuru sistemi uygulamalarının terk edildiği 1973 yılından bu yana, döviz kurunda önemli dalgalanmalar gözlemlenmiştir. Bu durum, döviz kuru oynaklığı ve dış ticaret arasındaki ilişkinin teorik ve ampirik çalışmalarda sıklıkla araştırılan bir konu olmasına neden olmuştur. Ancak, literatürdeki çalışmalarda döviz kuru oynaklığı ile dış ticaret arasındaki ilişkinin varlığına dair bir uzlaşmaya varılamamıştır. Bu çalışma, sektörel reel efektif döviz kuru oynaklığının Türkiye ithalat hacmi üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktadır. 22 imalat sanayi alt sektörü verileri kullanılarak yürütülen panel veri analizi sonuçları, 2005:Q1-2012:Q2 döneminde, döviz kuru oynaklığının ithalat hacmi üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığını göstermiştir

Keywords

Sektörel reel döviz kuru oynaklığı, ithalat hacmi, panel veri analizi

References

• Akhtar, M. A. ve Spence Hilton, R. (1984). Effects of exchange rate uncertainty on German and U.S. trade. Federal Reserve
• Bank of New York Quarterly Review, 7-16. Arize, A. C. (1998). The long-run relationship between import flows and real exchange-rate volatility: the experience of eight
• European economies. International Review of Economics and Finance, 7(4), 417-435. Arize, A. C. ve Shwiff, S. S. (1998). Does exchange-rate volatility affect import flows in G-7 countries? Evidence from cointegration models. Applied Economics, 30(10), 1269-1276.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Payesteh, S. (1993). Does exchange-rate volatility deter trade volume of LDCs?. Journal of Economic Development, 18(2), 189-205.
• Canzoneri, M. B.; Clark, P. B.; Glaessner, T. C. ve Leahy, M. P. (1984). The effects of exchange rate variability on output and employment. International Finance Discussion Papers, 240.
• Clark, P. B. (1973). Uncertainty, exchange risk, and the level of international trade. Economic Inquiry, 11(3), 302-313.
• De Grauwe, P. (1992). The benefits of a common currency. The economics of monetary integration. (Ed: P. De Grauwe). New
• York: Oxford University Press. Dixit, A. (1989). Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 620-638.
• Erdal, G., Erdal, H. ve Esengün, K. (2012). The effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: evidence from Turkish agricultural trade. Applied Economics Letters, 19(3), 297-303.
• Erden, L. ve Sağlam, G. (2009). Türkiye’de döviz kuru oynaklığının sektörel ithalata etkileri: bir ARDL ithalat modeli analizi.
• H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(2), 19-44. Gotur, P. (1985). Effects of exchange rate volatility on trade: some further evidence. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 32(3), 475-512.
• Gros, D. (1987). Exchange rate variability and foreign trade in the presence of adjustment costs. Département des Sciences
• Economiques, Université Catholique de Louvain Working Paper, 8704.
• Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of panel data. (2. edition). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Koray, F. ve Lastrapes, W. D. (1989). Real exchange rate volatility and U.S. bilateral trade: a VAR approach. The Review of
• Economics and Statistics, 71(4), 708-712. Krugman, P. R. (1989). Exchange-rate instability. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
• Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
• Molaei, I., Molaei, D., Yari, R, ve Maleki, H. (2012). Effect of exchange rate volatility on Turkey-Iran bilateral trade. Journal of
• Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(3), 2411-2414.
• Lee, J. ve Yi, B. C. (2005). Industry level real effective exchange rates for Korea. The Bank of Korea Institute for Monetary and Economic Research.
• Sarı, A. (2010). Döviz kuru oynaklığının ithalata etkileri: Türkiye örneği. Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 11, 31–44.
• Saygılı, H., Yılmaz, G., Filazioğlu, S. ve Toprak, H. (2012). Sektörel reel efektif döviz kurları: Türkiye uygulaması. TCMB Çalışma Tebliği, 12/13.
• Wei, S. J. (1999). Currency hedging and goods trade. European Economic Review, 43(7), 1371-1394.
• Viaene, J. M. ve de Vries, C. G. (1992). International trade and exchange rate volatility. European Economic Review, 36(6), 1311-1321.