Türkiye'nin Doğu Karadeniz Havzası'ndaki Uzun Vadeli Yağış Değişimlerinin Çift Yöntemli Değerlendirmesi

Year 2026, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 250 - 262, 21.01.2026

Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu

https://doi.org/10.29130/dubited.1830918

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1994-2024 dönemi için altı meteoroloji istasyonundan alınan aylık toplam yağış verileri kullanılarak Doğu Karadeniz Havzası'ndaki uzun vadeli ve mevsimsel yağış dinamikleri araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada trend analiz yöntemleri arasında en güncel iki olan: Çoklu Risk Düzeyi Belirleme (MRLI) ve Trend Poligon Yıldızlama (TPSCM) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. MRLI yaklaşımı, Kolmogorov-Smirnov testi ile doğrulanan en uygun teorik dağılımlardan türetilen kritik yağış değerlerini belirleyerek, birden fazla risk yüzdesi boyunca artan, azalan veya sabit trendlerin belirlenmesini sağlamıştır. Sonuçlar, dikkate değer bir mekansal değişkenliği ortaya koymuştur: Giresun tüm risk düzeylerinde artan trendler sergilerken, Artvin ve Trabzon farklı yüzdelikler arasında hem artan hem de azalan eğilimlerle karışık davranışlar göstermiştir. Geriye kalan istasyonlar düşük, orta ve yüksek risk sınıfları arasında değişen trend örüntüleri göstermiştir. Trend Poligon Yıldızlama yöntemi, yıllık değişkenlik ve mevsimsel geçişler hakkında önemli bilgiler sağlamıştır. Aylık yağış geçişleri, erken ve geç alt dönemler arasındaki değişiklikleri de kapsayacak şekilde dört yönlü bölgeye ayrılmıştır. Bölgelerin mekansal dağılımı, iller arasında önemli ölçüde farklılık göstermiş ve mevsimsel yağış yapısında zaman içinde değişimler meydana geldiği sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, MRLI ve Trend Poligonu yöntemlerinin birlikte kullanılması, uzun vadeli ve mevsimsel yağış davranışının kapsamlı bir değerlendirmesini sunmuş, Doğu Karadeniz Havzası için gelişmiş hidrolojik planlama ve iklim adaptasyon stratejilerine alt yapı hazırlamıştır.

Keywords

MRLI , TPSCM , Doğu Karadeniz Havzası , Trend Analizi , Yağış

A Dual-Method Evaluation of Long-Term Precipitation Changes in Türkiye’s Eastern Black Sea Basin

Abstract

In this study, the long-term and seasonal precipitation dynamics of the Eastern Black Sea Basin were investigated using monthly total precipitation data from six meteorological stations for the period 1994–2024. Two contemporary trend analysis techniques—the Multi-Risk Level Identification (MRLI) method and the Trend Polygon Star Concept Method (TPSCM)—were applied to provide a comprehensive evaluation of precipitation behavior. The MRLI approach identified increasing, decreasing, or stable trends across a range of risk percentiles by determining critical precipitation thresholds from best-fitting theoretical distributions validated through the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) test. The results revealed substantial spatial variability: while Giresun exhibited consistently increasing trends at all risk levels, Artvin and Trabzon showed mixed behavior with both upward and downward tendencies depending on the percentile. In addition, a basin-wide evaluation indicated that approximately 65% of the overall trends were increasing, whereas 35% displayed decreasing tendencies, highlighting a general intensification of precipitation conditions in the region. The remaining stations showed diverse responses across low-, medium-, and high-risk classes. The TPSCM method offered further insights into intra-annual variability by categorizing month-to-month precipitation transitions into four directional regions representing shifts between early and late sub-periods. The spatial distribution of these regions varied considerably among provinces, indicating notable temporal changes in seasonal rainfall structures. Overall, the combined application of MRLI and TPSCM enabled a detailed assessment of both long-term and seasonal precipitation characteristics, providing a robust basis for advanced hydrological planning and climate adaptation strategies in the Eastern Black Sea Basin.

Keywords

MRLI , TPSCM , Eastern black sea basin , Trend analysis , Precipitation

Ethical Statement

This study does not involve human or animal participants. All procedures followed scientific and ethical principles, and all referenced studies are appropriately cited.

Supporting Institution

This research received no external funding.

Thanks

The author do not wish to acknowledge any individual or institution.

References

• Acar, E., Kankal, M., Akçay, F., & Şan, M. (2022). Innovative polygon trend analyses with star graph for rainfall and temperature data in agricultural regions of Turkey. Environmental Earth Sciences, 81, Article 530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10646-9
• Achite, M., Ceribasi, G., Ceyhunlu, A. I., Wałęga, A., & Caloiero, T. (2021). The innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) as a simple qualitative method to detect changes in environment—example detecting trends of the total monthly precipitation in semiarid area. Sustainability, 13(22), Article 12674. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212674
• Ahmed, N., Wang, G., Booij, M. J., Ceribasi, G., Bhat, M. S., Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ahmed, A. (2022). Changes in monthly streamflow in the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya Region of Pakistan using innovative polygon trend analysis. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 36(3), 811-830. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02067-0
• Akçay, F., Kankal, M., & Şan, M. (2022). Innovative approaches to the trend assessment of streamflows in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 67(2), 222-247. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1998509
• Ceribasi, G. (2019). Analyzing rainfall datas’ of eastern black sea basin by using sen method and trend methods. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, 9(1), 254-264. https://doi.org/10.21597/jist.439569
• Ceribasi, G., Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ahmed, N. (2021a). Analysis of temperature data by using innovative polygon trend analysis and trend polygon star concept methods: a case study for Susurluk Basin, Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 69(5), 1949-1961. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-021-00632-3
• Ceribasi, G., Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Ahmed, N. (2021b). Innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM): a case study for precipitation data of Susurluk Basin in Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 69(4), 1465-1480. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-021-00605-6
• Ceribasi, G., Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Celebi, A. (2026). The role of climate change on hydroelectric energy from renewable energy sources: A case study of Sakarya Basin, Türkiye. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 17(1), Article 103823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2025.103823
• Ceyhunlu, A. I., & Cuma, M. (2025). Assessing the impact of climate change on meteorological parameters in the Sakarya River Basin using advanced trend analysis methods. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 140, Arrticle 104061. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2025.104061
• Güçlü, Y. S. (2018). Multiple Şen-innovative trend analyses and partial Mann-Kendall test. Journal of Hydrology, 566, 685-704. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.09.034
• Güçlü, Y. S., Şişman, E., & Yeleğen, M. Ö. (2018). Climate change and frequency–intensity–duration (FID) curves for Florya station, Istanbul. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11(S1), S403-S418. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12229
• Hırca, T., Eryılmaz Türkkan, G., & Niazkar, M. (2022). Applications of innovative polygonal trend analyses to precipitation series of Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147(1), 651-667. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03837-0
• Kartal, V., Yavuz, V. S., Ariman, S., Kaya, K., Alkanjo, S., & Simsek, O. (2024). Climate change trends in the Southeastern Anatolia region of Türkiye: Precipitation and drought. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 15(12), 5893-5919. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2024.503 Kolmogorov, A. N. (1933). Sulla determinazione empirica di una legge di distribuzione. Giornale dell’Istituto Italiano degli Attuari, 4, 83–91.
• Köyceğiz, C., & Büyükyıldız, M. (2019). Temporal trend analysis of extreme precipitation: a case study of Konya Closed Basin. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 25(8), 956-961. https://doi.org/10.5505/pajes.2019.86658
• Koycegiz, C., & Buyukyildiz, M. (2024). Applications of innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and trend polygon star concept (TPSC) methods for the variability of precipitation in Konya Closed Basin (Turkey). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 155(4), 2641-2656. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04765-x
• Şan, M., Akçay, F., Linh, N. T. T., Kankal, M., & Pham, Q. B. (2021). Innovative and polygonal trend analyses applications for rainfall data in Vietnam. Theoretical & Applied Climatology, 144, 809–822. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03574-4.
• Şen, Z. (2017a). Innovative trend methodologies in science and engineering. Springer.
• Şen, Z. (2017b). Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 127(3), 939-947. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x.
• Şen, Z. (2021). Conceptual monthly trend polygon methodology and climate change assessments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 66(3), 503-512. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2021.1881099.
• Şen, Z. (2024). Multiple risk trend identification with seesaw methodology in hydrometeorology time series. Water Resources Management, 38(4), 1529-1541. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-024-03737-8
• Simsek, O., Yildiz-Bozkurt, S., & Gumus, V. (2024). Analysis of meteorological drought with different methods in the Black Sea Region, Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 72(3), 1927-1943. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-023-01099-0 Smirnov, N. (1948). Table for estimating the goodness of fit of empirical distributions. The annals of mathematical statistics, 19(2), 279-281. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177730256