YHTD’lerin Değerlendirilmesinde Yeni Bir Yöntem

Abstract

Yer hareketi tahmin denklemlerinin sayılarının günden güne artması (YHTD), geliştirme aşamasında kullanılan verilerin artması ve buna paralel olarak denklemlerin daha karmaşık hale gelmesi, kullanıcılar açısından kolaylık değil daha çok külfet getirmiştir. Sismik tehlike analizi (STA) için hangi denklemin daha uygun olduğu ve daha kesin sonuçlar verebileceği konusu bir süredir kullanıcıları meşgul etmekte, denklem geliştiricileri ise denklemlerin geçerlilik koşulları konusunda zorlamaktadır. Denklemlerin uzaklık, deprem büyüklüğü ve diğer parametrelere bağlı değişken performansları ve özellikle belirsizlikleri, denklemlerin seçimi konusunda kullanıcıları mantık ağacı gibi yöntemleri geliştirmeye sevk etmiştir. Ancak bu yöntemle, belirli sayıda YHTD seçimi ile sadece tek YHTD seçilmesinin oluşturabileceği belirsizlik ve yanlış tercih olasılığı en aza indirilmeye çalışılmıştır. Ancak, şurası bir gerçek ki bu yönteminde yaklaşık yöntem olduğu ve en gerçekçi sonucu değil ancak en yakın sonucu verdiği bilinerek, yeni çözümler sunma amacı ile çalışmalar devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada da, böyle bir bakış açısı ile tamamıyla yeni bir yöntem olan eşivme eğrileri ile uyumluluk yöntemi kullanarak, hâlihazırda geliştirilmiş denklemler değerlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca denklemlerin performansı diğer denklemlerle karşılaştırılarak yerel etkilere de vurgu yapılmıştır. Bu yöntemle, depremlerin yıkıcı etkilerinin daha yüksek olduğu alanlarda ki performansının önemi ön plana çıkartılarak yapılan değerlendirmenin, en doğru denklemin seçimi açısından önemi vurgulanmıştır.

Keywords

• Yer hareketi tahmin denklemi
• Eşivme eğrileri
• Harita benzeşim katsayısı
• Artık

A New Method for the Evaluation of GMPEs

Abstract

Ever-increasing number of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), the databases used to develop GMPEs and the associated complexity of the functional forms, brought more burden over the shoulders of the users. The issues in the selection of the most appropriate GMPE for a seismic hazard analysis (SHA) gives the users hard time and forces the developers about the validity requirements of their GMPEs. Varying performances of GMPEs with respect to distance, magnitude and other parameters and especially different levels of uncertainties, urged users to find ways such as logic tree to reduce uncertainties. Only through the introduction of such methods, the uncertainty and the outright errors caused by choosing a single equation is minimized by the selection of a number of equations. However, knowing that the introduction of such a method is also an approximation and it doesn’t yield the exact answer but only the approximation, studies are being conducted to find out better solutions. In this study, looking from the same angle to the problem, a new method is proposed which rely on the comparison of iso-acceleration maps developed by the measurements and the predicted values by GMPEs. In addition, the performance of each GMPE is compared and the locality of the GMPEs are stressed. By the introduction of the new method, the importance of the evaluation of GMPEs in their prediction performances of ground motion parameters closer to the earthquake epicenters in the overall evaluation of GMPEs for their appropriateness for the considered area.

Keywords

• Ground motion prediction equation
• Isoseismal contours
• Map similarity index
• Residuals

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