INVESTIGATION OF CO2 EMISSIONS, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GDP VALUES IN TURKIYE BY GRANGER CAUSES METHODS: 1990-2020

Abstract

In recent years, environmental issues such as environmental sustainability, climate change, and global warming have started to come to the fore frequently by many academic and financial side around the world. This causes institutions and organizations which are operating in the real economy and financial sector to give more importance to environment-oriented activities. It is not yet clear in which direction the composite leading indicators will change if all economic and financial activities gain a more environmentally oriented structure. In this study, the Granger causality method was used to determine whether there is a causal relationship between Turkey's total energy consumption, total greenhouse gas emissions, and Turkey's gross domestic product between 1990 and 2020. For this purpose unit root analyzes were performed to determine the degree of stationarity of the series of variables. Then, Engle-Granger cointegration tests were applied to analyze whether there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the series and it was determined that the series were cointegrated in the long run. Finally, Granger causality tests were applied to test the short-term causality relationship between the variables and it was concluded that they did not have a short-term causality relationship between the series.

Keywords

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• GDP
• Energy Consumption
• Granger Causality Test

TÜRKİYE’DEKİ CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ VE GSYİH DEĞİŞKENLERİNİN GRANGER NEDENSELLİK YÖNTEMİ İLE İNCELENMESİ: 1990-2020

Abstract

Son yıllarda tüm dünyada akademik ve finansal birçok kesim tarafından çevresel sürdürülebilirlik, iklim değişikliği ve küresel ısınma gibi çevre odaklı konular sık bir biçimde gündeme gelmeye başlamıştır. Bu durum reel ekonomi ve finansal kesimde faaliyet gösteren kurum ve kuruluşların çevre odaklı faaliyetlere daha fazla önem vermelerine yol açmaktadır. Tüm ekonomik ve finansal faaliyetlerin daha fazla çevre odaklı bir yapı kazanması durumunda bileşik öncü göstergelerin hangi yönde değişim gösterecekleri henüz netlik kazanmış bir konu değildir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1990 ile 2020 yılları arasındaki toplam enerji tüketimi, toplam sera gazı salınımları ile Türkiye’nin gayri safi yurt içi hasılası arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olup olmadığını tespit etmek üzere Granger nedensellik yönteminden faydalanılmıştır. Bu amaçla değişkenlere ait serilerin durağanlık derecelerinin belirlenmesi amacıyla birim kök analizleri yapılmıştır. Daha sonra seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olup olmadığını analiz etmek için Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme testleri uygulanmıştır ve serilerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Son olarak değişkenler arasında kısa dönemli nedensellik ilişkisinin test edilmesi amacıyla Granger nedensellik testleri uygulanmış ve seriler arasında kısa dönemde nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığı sonucu elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Sera gazı salınımı
• GSYİH
• Enerji tüketimi
• Granger nedensellik testi.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• GDP
• Energy Consumption
• Granger Causality Test

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