INVESTIGATION OF CO2 EMISSIONS, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GDP VALUES IN TURKIYE BY GRANGER CAUSES METHODS: 1990-2020

Öz

In recent years, environmental issues such as environmental sustainability, climate change, and global warming have started to come to the fore frequently by many academic and financial side around the world. This causes institutions and organizations which are operating in the real economy and financial sector to give more importance to environment-oriented activities. It is not yet clear in which direction the composite leading indicators will change if all economic and financial activities gain a more environmentally oriented structure. In this study, the Granger causality method was used to determine whether there is a causal relationship between Turkey's total energy consumption, total greenhouse gas emissions, and Turkey's gross domestic product between 1990 and 2020. For this purpose unit root analyzes were performed to determine the degree of stationarity of the series of variables. Then, Engle-Granger cointegration tests were applied to analyze whether there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the series and it was determined that the series were cointegrated in the long run. Finally, Granger causality tests were applied to test the short-term causality relationship between the variables and it was concluded that they did not have a short-term causality relationship between the series.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• GDP
• Energy Consumption
• Granger Causality Test

TÜRKİYE’DEKİ CO2 EMİSYONU, ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ VE GSYİH DEĞİŞKENLERİNİN GRANGER NEDENSELLİK YÖNTEMİ İLE İNCELENMESİ: 1990-2020

Öz

Son yıllarda tüm dünyada akademik ve finansal birçok kesim tarafından çevresel sürdürülebilirlik, iklim değişikliği ve küresel ısınma gibi çevre odaklı konular sık bir biçimde gündeme gelmeye başlamıştır. Bu durum reel ekonomi ve finansal kesimde faaliyet gösteren kurum ve kuruluşların çevre odaklı faaliyetlere daha fazla önem vermelerine yol açmaktadır. Tüm ekonomik ve finansal faaliyetlerin daha fazla çevre odaklı bir yapı kazanması durumunda bileşik öncü göstergelerin hangi yönde değişim gösterecekleri henüz netlik kazanmış bir konu değildir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1990 ile 2020 yılları arasındaki toplam enerji tüketimi, toplam sera gazı salınımları ile Türkiye’nin gayri safi yurt içi hasılası arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olup olmadığını tespit etmek üzere Granger nedensellik yönteminden faydalanılmıştır. Bu amaçla değişkenlere ait serilerin durağanlık derecelerinin belirlenmesi amacıyla birim kök analizleri yapılmıştır. Daha sonra seriler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olup olmadığını analiz etmek için Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme testleri uygulanmıştır ve serilerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Son olarak değişkenler arasında kısa dönemli nedensellik ilişkisinin test edilmesi amacıyla Granger nedensellik testleri uygulanmış ve seriler arasında kısa dönemde nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığı sonucu elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sera gazı salınımı
• GSYİH
• Enerji tüketimi
• Granger nedensellik testi.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• GDP
• Energy Consumption
• Granger Causality Test

Kaynakça

1. Ailian Zhang, S. W. (2022). How to control air pollution with economic means? exploration of china's freen finance policy. Journal of Cleaner Production, 353(1), 131-152.
2. Bina, O. (2013). The green economy and sustainable development: an uneasy balance? Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 31(1), 1023-1047.
3. C.C. Lee, C. W. (2020). Financial inclusion, financial innovation, and firms' sales growth. International Rewiev Economics and Finance, 66(1), 189-205.
4. Corporation, I. F. (2017). Green finance, a bottom-up aproach to track exsisting flows. 03 18, 2022 tarihinde International Finance Corporation: https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/12ebe660-9cad-4946-825f-66ce1e0ce147/IFC_Green+Finance+-+A+Bottom-up+Approach+to+Track+Existing+Flows+2017.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=lKMn.-t adresinden alındı
5. E.Z. Wang, C. L. (2022). Assessing the impact of industrial robots on manufacturing energy intensity of 38 countries. Energy and Economics, 105, 1-14.
6. Francesco BONSINETTO, E. F. (2013). Analysing Italian regional patterns in green economy and climate change. Can Italy leverage on Europe 2020 strategy to face sustainable growth challenges? Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis, 2(1), 123-142.
7. Hoffmann, E. (2007). Consumer integration in sustainable product development. Business Strategy and the Environment., 16(5), 322-338.
8. IPCC. (2018). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 03 28, 2022 tarihinde Global Warming of 1.5°C: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter1_Low_Res.pdf adresinden alındı

9. J.D. Sachs, W. W.-H. (2019). Why is green finance important? 02 21, 2022 tarihinde ADBI Working Paper Series: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/481936/adbi-wp917.pdf adresinden alındı
10. L. Eyraud, A. W. (2011). Who's going green and why? Trends and determinants of green investment. 03 17, 2022 tarihinde International Monetary Fund: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11296.pdf adresinden alındı
11. Mara Madaleno, E. D. (2022). A step forward on sustainability: the nexus of environmental responsibility, green technology, clean energy and green finance. Energy Economics, 109(1), 1-11.
12. McCollum, D. Z.-S. (2018). Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris agreement and achieving the sustainable development goals. National Energy, 3(7), 589-599.
13. Md Al Mamun, S. B. (2022). Green finance and decarbonization: Evidence from around the world. Finance Research Letters, 46(2).
14. Muhammad Saeed Meo, M. Z. (2022). The role of green finance in reducing CO2 emissions: an empirical analysis. Borsa Istanbul Review, 22(1), 169-178.
15. Phillips, M. (2013). On being green and being enterprising: narrative and the ecopreneurial self. Organization, 20(6), 794-817.
16. Q. Tu, J. M. (2021). Using green finance to counteract the adverse effects of COVID-19 pandemic on renewable energy investment-the case of offshore wind power in. China Energy Policy, 158(1), 1-12.
17. Quan-Jing Wang, H.-J. W.-P. (2022). Environmental performance, green finance and green innovation: What's the long-run relationships among variables? Energy Economics, 110(1), 124-147.
18. R. Lopez, G. G. (2011). Islam fiscal spending and the environment: theory and empirics. Enviormental Economics Manangment, 62(2), 180-198.
19. Robert F Engle, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica.
20. S. Chen, J. G. (2014). Green productivity growth in China's industrial economy. Energy Economics, 44(1), 89-98.
21. S. Zadek, C. Z. (2014). Greening China's financial system. 04 11, 2022 tarihinde International Institute for Sustainable Development: https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/greening-chinas-financial-system.pdf adresinden alındı
22. S.A. Haller, L. M. (2012). Corporate expenditure on environmental protection. Enviormental Resource Economics, 51(2), 277-296.
23. Sarah Hafner, A. J.-K. (2021). Modelling the macroeconomics of a ‘closing the green finance gap’ scenario for an energy transition. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 40(1), 536-568.
24. U.N. (2017). Bridging climate ambition and finance gaps. 03 22, 2022 tarihinde United Nations Climate Chabge: https://unfccc.int/news/bridging-climate-ambition-and-finance-gaps adresinden alındı
25. UNEP. (2011). Towards a green economy: pathways to sustainable development and Poverty Eradication - A Synthesis for policy makers. 02 16, 2022 tarihinde United Nations Environment Programme. adresinden alındı
26. V. Yoshino, F. T.-H. (2019). Optimal credit guarantee ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises’ financing: evidence from Asia. Economic Analys. Pollicy, 62(1), 342-356.
27. W. Yin, B. K.-U. (2019). Is financial development in China green? Evidence from city level data. National Agricultural Library, 211(1), 247-256.
28. X. Zhou, X. T. (2020). Impact of green finance on economic development and environmental quality: a study based on provincial panel data from China Environ. Science Pollution Research, 27(16), 19915-19932.
29. Y. Hao, L. W. (2018). The dynamic relationship between energy consumption, investment and economic growth in China's rural area: New evidence based on provincial panel data. Energy Elsevier, 154(1), 374-382.
30. Yong Xu, S. L. (2022). How environmental regulations affect the development of green finance: Recent evidence from polluting firms in China. Renewable Energy, 189(1), 917-926.
31. Z. Yan, B. Z. (2020). Do renewable energy technology innovations promote China's green productivity growth? fresh evidence from partially linear functional-coefficient models. Energy Economics, 90(1), 1-12.
32. Zilong Wang, X. W. (2022). Research on the impact of green finance on energy efficiency in different regions of China based on the DEA-Tobit model. Resources Policy, 77(1).