DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE

Year 2017, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 33 - 40, 31.10.2017

Ahmet Hakan Polat , Ahmet Hakan Polat

Abstract

The main goal of the study is to
define the design input motion scenarios for the future microzonation study. The study of
the “Earthquake hazard Assessment in Duzce” is performed for the seismic hazard
for the city of Duzce in order to get the design ground motion parameters for
the next microzonation study. The main goal of the present study is to give
briefly the steps and the uncertainties derived from the performing deterministic
seismic hazard study for the city of Duzce based exclusively on the existing
data and the seismicity of the region. This study uses all available sources of
information, technical papers and research works performed so far. The
seismotectonic environment of the area is very active, however there are
certain uncertainties (to our knowledge) regarding the characteristic of the
seismic source zones, the fault length, the magnitudes assigned to the faults,
the seismicity parameters, the seismic history of the area, the attenuation
relationships etc. During the few past years several research studies have
contributed in better understanding the seismotectonic and geological
background of the region. There are still a lot of parameters which are poorly
known in order to provide more reliable seismological information of the area. Seismic hazard in Duzce
was performed using
uniform seismic zones (USZ). The seismic hazard was performed using a
poisoning approach for mean return periods of 100 and 475 years. In the Seismotectonic
zonation criteria; the seismic
sources selected to perform a seismic hazard analysis were determined by
Kayabali K (2002). In total  14 seismic
sources were delineated in Turkey based mostly on Erdik et al (1985) and
Yaltirak et al (1998) works. As a result, we have computed the PGA values and the acceleration
response spectra for soft soil and rock (considered as outcrop) conditions in
Duzce and for two mean return periods. In addition, several other comparisons
with real records of previous earthquakes and seismic hazard studies will
enhance the reliability of the obtained results. The design PGA value for rock
(or outcrop) conditions and for 250 years return period is most probably
between 0.3g and 0.35g. For 475 years return period it will be almost the
double of it (we could accept in a reasonable way a PGA = 0.60g). These values
will be further validated and then will be used, as incident peak ground
accelerations, of a uniform incident ground motion, at the bedrock basement of
Duzce for the detailed microzonation study of Duzce.

 

Keywords

Earthquake, Seismic, Analysis, Deterministic

DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE

Abstract

The main goal of the study is to define the
design input motion scenarios for the future microzonation study. The study of
the “Earthquake hazard Assessment in Duzce” is performed for the seismic hazard
for the city of Duzce in order to get the design ground motion parameters for
the next microzonation study. The main goal of the present study is to give
briefly the steps and the uncertainties derived from the performing deterministic
seismic hazard study for the city of Duzce based exclusively on the existing
data and the seismicity of the region. This study uses all available sources of
information, technical papers and research works performed so far. The
seismotectonic environment of the area is very active, however there are
certain uncertainties (to our knowledge) regarding the characteristic of the
seismic source zones, the fault length, the magnitudes assigned to the faults,
the seismicity parameters, the seismic history of the area, the attenuation
relationships etc. During the few past years several research studies have
contributed in better understanding the seismotectonic and geological
background of the region. There are still a lot of parameters which are poorly
known in order to provide more reliable seismological information of the area. Seismic hazard in Duzce
was performed using
uniform seismic zones (USZ). The seismic hazard was performed using a
poisoning approach for mean return periods of 100 and 475 years. In the Seismotectonic
zonation criteria; the seismic
sources selected to perform a seismic hazard analysis were determined by
Kayabali K (2002). In total  14 seismic
sources were delineated in Turkey based mostly on Erdik et al (1985) and
Yaltirak et al (1998) works. As a result, we have computed the PGA values and the acceleration
response spectra for soft soil and rock (considered as outcrop) conditions in
Duzce and for two mean return periods. In addition, several other comparisons
with real records of previous earthquakes and seismic hazard studies will
enhance the reliability of the obtained results. The design PGA value for rock
(or outcrop) conditions and for 250 years return period is most probably
between 0.3g and 0.35g. For 475 years return period it will be almost the
double of it (we could accept in a reasonable way a PGA = 0.60g). These values
will be further validated and then will be used, as incident peak ground
accelerations, of a uniform incident ground motion, at the bedrock basement of
Duzce for the detailed microzonation study of Duzce.

 

Keywords

Earthquake, Seismic, Analysis, Deterministic

References

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