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DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 33 - 40, 31.10.2017

Öz

The main goal of the study is to
define the design input motion scenarios for the future microzonation study.
The study of
the “Earthquake hazard Assessment in Duzce” is performed for the seismic hazard
for the city of Duzce in order to get the design ground motion parameters for
the next microzonation study. The main goal of the present study is to give
briefly the steps and the uncertainties derived from the performing deterministic
seismic hazard study for the city of Duzce based exclusively on the existing
data and the seismicity of the region. This study uses all available sources of
information, technical papers and research works performed so far. The
seismotectonic environment of the area is very active, however there are
certain uncertainties (to our knowledge) regarding the characteristic of the
seismic source zones, the fault length, the magnitudes assigned to the faults,
the seismicity parameters, the seismic history of the area, the attenuation
relationships etc. During the few past years several research studies have
contributed in better understanding the seismotectonic and geological
background of the region. There are still a lot of parameters which are poorly
known in order to provide more reliable seismological information of the area.
Seismic hazard in Duzce
was performe
d using
uniform seismic zones (USZ).
The seismic hazard was performed using a
poisoning approach for mean return periods of 100 and 475 years. In the
Seismotectonic
zonation criteria
; the seismic
sources selected to perform a seismic hazard analysis were determined by
Kayabali K (2002). In total  14 seismic
sources were delineated in Turkey based mostly on Erdik et al (1985) and
Yaltirak et al (1998) works.
As a result, we have computed the PGA values and the acceleration
response spectra for soft soil and rock (considered as outcrop) conditions in
Duzce and for two mean return periods. In addition, several other comparisons
with real records of previous earthquakes and seismic hazard studies will
enhance the reliability of the obtained results. The design PGA value for rock
(or outcrop) conditions and for 250 years return period is most probably
between 0.3g and 0.35g. For 475 years return period it will be almost the
double of it (we could accept in a reasonable way a PGA = 0.60g). These values
will be further validated and then will be used, as incident peak ground
accelerations, of a uniform incident ground motion, at the bedrock basement of
Duzce for the detailed microzonation study of Duzce.



 

Kaynakça

  • [1] Alsan. E, Tezucan L, Bath M Tectonophysics 31, (1976) p.13-20 “An earthquake catalogue for Turkey for the interval 1913-1970”. [2] Ambraseys, N. N., Finkel, C. F. (1987) Annales Geophysicae 5 p. 701-725 “Seismicity of Turkey and neighboring regions, 1899-1915”. [3] Ambraseys N.N. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics (1995) p.467- 490. ”The prediction of earthquake peak ground acceleration in Europe”. [4] Ambraseys N.N, Simpson K.A, Bommer J.J. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics (1996) p. 371- 400 “Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe”. [5] Ansal, J. P. Bardet, A. Barka, M. B. Baturay, M. Berilgen, J. Bray, O. Cetin, L. Cluff, T. Durgunoglu, D. Erten, M. Erdik, I. M. Idriss, T. Karadayilar, A. Kaya, W. Lettis, G. Olgun, W. Paige, E. Rathje, C. Roblee, J. Stewart, and D. Ural (1999) A study of the Turkey-US geotechnical earthquake engineering reconnaissance team. “Initial Geotechnical Observations of the November 12, 1999, Duzce Earthquake” [6] Durukal E Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 22 (2002) p.589-609 “Critical evaluation of strong motion in Kocaeli and Duzce (Turkey) earthquakes”. [7] Erdik M, Doyuran V, Gulkan P, Akkas N Tectonophysics 117 (1985) p. 295- 344 “A probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard in Turkey”, [8] Ghasemi H, Cooper J, Imbsen R, Piskin H, Inal F, Tiras A (2000) “The November 1999 Duzce Earthquake: Post- Earthquake Investigation of the structures on the TE” Publication No.FHWA-RD-00-146. [9] Kayabali K, Akin M Engineering Geology 63 (2002) p.221-232. “Modeling of seismic hazard for Turkey using the recent neotectonic data”. [10] Kayabali K, Akin M Engineering Geology 69 (2003) p.127-137. “Seismic hazard map of Turkey using the deterministic approach”. [11] Mark R.K Geology 5 (1977) p.464-466. “Application of linear statistical model of earthquake magnitude versus fault length in estimating maximum expectable earthquakes”. [12] Ozbey C Empirical peak horizontal acceleration relationship for northwestern Turkey, MSc Thesis, Bogazici University, Istanbul-Turkey,(2000). [13] Richter C.F (1958) “Elementary Seismology” Freeman, San Francisco CA, pp. 768 [14] Sahin M & Tari E (2000) “The August 17 Kocaelli and the November 12 Duzce earthquakes in Turkey” Earth Planets Space, 52, pp. 753-757 [15] Saroglu F., Emre O, Kuscu I (1992) “Active fault map of Turkey“ Printed by General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration. [16] Yaltirak C, Alpar B, Yuce H Tectonophysics 300(1998) p.227-248 “Tectonic elements controlling the evolution of the Gulf of Saros (Northeastern Aegean Sea, Turkey)”. [17] Wells D.L Coppersmith K.J Bull. of Seismological Society of America. 4 (84) (1994) p.975-1002 “New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area and surface displacement”.

DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 33 - 40, 31.10.2017

Öz

The main goal of the study is to define the
design input motion scenarios for the future microzonation study.
The study of
the “Earthquake hazard Assessment in Duzce” is performed for the seismic hazard
for the city of Duzce in order to get the design ground motion parameters for
the next microzonation study. The main goal of the present study is to give
briefly the steps and the uncertainties derived from the performing deterministic
seismic hazard study for the city of Duzce based exclusively on the existing
data and the seismicity of the region. This study uses all available sources of
information, technical papers and research works performed so far. The
seismotectonic environment of the area is very active, however there are
certain uncertainties (to our knowledge) regarding the characteristic of the
seismic source zones, the fault length, the magnitudes assigned to the faults,
the seismicity parameters, the seismic history of the area, the attenuation
relationships etc. During the few past years several research studies have
contributed in better understanding the seismotectonic and geological
background of the region. There are still a lot of parameters which are poorly
known in order to provide more reliable seismological information of the area.
Seismic hazard in Duzce
was performe
d using
uniform seismic zones (USZ).
The seismic hazard was performed using a
poisoning approach for mean return periods of 100 and 475 years. In the
Seismotectonic
zonation criteria
; the seismic
sources selected to perform a seismic hazard analysis were determined by
Kayabali K (2002). In total  14 seismic
sources were delineated in Turkey based mostly on Erdik et al (1985) and
Yaltirak et al (1998) works.
As a result, we have computed the PGA values and the acceleration
response spectra for soft soil and rock (considered as outcrop) conditions in
Duzce and for two mean return periods. In addition, several other comparisons
with real records of previous earthquakes and seismic hazard studies will
enhance the reliability of the obtained results. The design PGA value for rock
(or outcrop) conditions and for 250 years return period is most probably
between 0.3g and 0.35g. For 475 years return period it will be almost the
double of it (we could accept in a reasonable way a PGA = 0.60g). These values
will be further validated and then will be used, as incident peak ground
accelerations, of a uniform incident ground motion, at the bedrock basement of
Duzce for the detailed microzonation study of Duzce.



 

Kaynakça

  • [1] Alsan. E, Tezucan L, Bath M Tectonophysics 31, (1976) p.13-20 “An earthquake catalogue for Turkey for the interval 1913-1970”. [2] Ambraseys, N. N., Finkel, C. F. (1987) Annales Geophysicae 5 p. 701-725 “Seismicity of Turkey and neighboring regions, 1899-1915”. [3] Ambraseys N.N. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics (1995) p.467- 490. ”The prediction of earthquake peak ground acceleration in Europe”. [4] Ambraseys N.N, Simpson K.A, Bommer J.J. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics (1996) p. 371- 400 “Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe”. [5] Ansal, J. P. Bardet, A. Barka, M. B. Baturay, M. Berilgen, J. Bray, O. Cetin, L. Cluff, T. Durgunoglu, D. Erten, M. Erdik, I. M. Idriss, T. Karadayilar, A. Kaya, W. Lettis, G. Olgun, W. Paige, E. Rathje, C. Roblee, J. Stewart, and D. Ural (1999) A study of the Turkey-US geotechnical earthquake engineering reconnaissance team. “Initial Geotechnical Observations of the November 12, 1999, Duzce Earthquake” [6] Durukal E Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 22 (2002) p.589-609 “Critical evaluation of strong motion in Kocaeli and Duzce (Turkey) earthquakes”. [7] Erdik M, Doyuran V, Gulkan P, Akkas N Tectonophysics 117 (1985) p. 295- 344 “A probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard in Turkey”, [8] Ghasemi H, Cooper J, Imbsen R, Piskin H, Inal F, Tiras A (2000) “The November 1999 Duzce Earthquake: Post- Earthquake Investigation of the structures on the TE” Publication No.FHWA-RD-00-146. [9] Kayabali K, Akin M Engineering Geology 63 (2002) p.221-232. “Modeling of seismic hazard for Turkey using the recent neotectonic data”. [10] Kayabali K, Akin M Engineering Geology 69 (2003) p.127-137. “Seismic hazard map of Turkey using the deterministic approach”. [11] Mark R.K Geology 5 (1977) p.464-466. “Application of linear statistical model of earthquake magnitude versus fault length in estimating maximum expectable earthquakes”. [12] Ozbey C Empirical peak horizontal acceleration relationship for northwestern Turkey, MSc Thesis, Bogazici University, Istanbul-Turkey,(2000). [13] Richter C.F (1958) “Elementary Seismology” Freeman, San Francisco CA, pp. 768 [14] Sahin M & Tari E (2000) “The August 17 Kocaelli and the November 12 Duzce earthquakes in Turkey” Earth Planets Space, 52, pp. 753-757 [15] Saroglu F., Emre O, Kuscu I (1992) “Active fault map of Turkey“ Printed by General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration. [16] Yaltirak C, Alpar B, Yuce H Tectonophysics 300(1998) p.227-248 “Tectonic elements controlling the evolution of the Gulf of Saros (Northeastern Aegean Sea, Turkey)”. [17] Wells D.L Coppersmith K.J Bull. of Seismological Society of America. 4 (84) (1994) p.975-1002 “New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area and surface displacement”.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ahmet Hakan Polat

Ahmet Hakan Polat

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ekim 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Polat, A. H., & Polat, A. H. (2017). DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE. İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi, 6(1), 33-40.
AMA Polat AH, Polat AH. DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE. İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi. Ekim 2017;6(1):33-40.
Chicago Polat, Ahmet Hakan, ve Ahmet Hakan Polat. “DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE”. İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi 6, sy. 1 (Ekim 2017): 33-40.
EndNote Polat AH, Polat AH (01 Ekim 2017) DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE. İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi 6 1 33–40.
IEEE A. H. Polat ve A. H. Polat, “DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE”, İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 6, sy. 1, ss. 33–40, 2017.
ISNAD Polat, Ahmet Hakan - Polat, Ahmet Hakan. “DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE”. İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi 6/1 (Ekim 2017), 33-40.
JAMA Polat AH, Polat AH. DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE. İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi. 2017;6:33–40.
MLA Polat, Ahmet Hakan ve Ahmet Hakan Polat. “DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE”. İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 6, sy. 1, 2017, ss. 33-40.
Vancouver Polat AH, Polat AH. DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION FOR THE CITY OF DUZCE. İleri Teknoloji Bilimleri Dergisi. 2017;6(1):33-40.