Are Electric Vehicles Discharging Tax Revenues? The Türkiye Case

Year 2024, , 517 - 530, 01.11.2024

Doğan Bakırtaş , Metin Nazlıoğlu , Hasan Yazar

https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.20240403

Abstract

Türkiye, in tandem with global trends, is witnessing a significant uptick in electric vehicle (EV) sales, prompting concerns about substantial impacts on traditional tax revenues derived from fuel-related products and the automotive sector. Data from the Automotive Distributors Association in Türkiye highlights a noteworthy increase in the EV market share from 0.03 percent (155 units) in 2020 to 4.8 percent (28,931 units) between January and August 2023. This study, utilizing forecasting methodologies such as the Exponential Smoothing Model and Holt’s Exponential Smoothing, projects total vehicle numbers for 2025 and 2030. Employing the Total Cost of Ownership model, encompassing registration, motor vehicle tax, fuel/charging costs, and maintenance, the research compares tax revenues from electric and internal combustion engine vehicles. The findings underscore an imminent government challenge, anticipating tax revenue losses of approximately $567.5 million for 2025 and $1.9 billion for 2030.

Keywords

Electric Vehicles (EVs), Tax Revenues, Total Cost of Ownership Model (TCO)

Supporting Institution

TÜBİTAK

Project Number

122G195

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