Volatility Dynamics and Interdependencies in US Grain Commodity Futures: Evidence from CCC EGARCH Modeling

Abstract

This study employs the CCC EGARCH model with a t-distribution to analyze volatility dynamics and interdependencies among US grain commodity futures, focusing on wheat, corn, soybeans, and oats. Significant volatility spillovers and conditional correlations are identified, with oats serving as a critical transmitter of volatility. The analysis reveals persistent shocks and leverage effects, particularly in wheat and oats, underscoring the necessity for robust risk management strategies. This research provides food policy-relevant insights, offering strategic recommendations for policymakers to enhance market stability and resilience. By elucidating the interconnectedness of grain futures markets, this study informs commodity market stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and industry practitioners, enabling them to navigate complex market dynamics and make informed decisions to improve food security and economic stability.

Keywords

• Volatility Dynamics
• CCC EGARCH
• Grain Commodity Futures

Ethical Statement

An ethics committee decision is not required.

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