TALEP TAHMİNLEMESİNDE KULLANILAN YÖNTEMLERİN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI: SERAMİK ÜRÜN GRUBU FİRMA UYGULAMASI

Abstract

İşletmeler, artan rekabet koşulları altında ayakta kalabilmek ve rekabet edebilmek için karşılaştıkları çeşitli sorunlara ilişkin etkin kararları belirlemek zorund,adırlar. Geleceğe ilişkin verilecek kararlar işletmeler için belirsizlik içerdiğinden, bu kararların alınmasında çeşitli tahminlerin geliştirilmesi gerekmektedir. Bunlardan biri de talep tahminleridir. İşletmelerin ürünlerine olan talebi tahminlemeleri, belirlenecek pazarlama stratejilerinde önemli bir girdi niteliği taşımaktadır. Çalışmanın giriş bölümünde talep yönetimindeki temel kavramlar, kalitatif ve kantitatif talep tahminleme yöntemleri ele alınmakta; literatür taramasında talep tahminlemesine yönelik başlıca çalışmalara yer verilmekte ve son bölümde ürün talebinin tahminlenmesinde kullanılan kantitatif teknikler uygulanmaktadır. Firma verilerine göre seramik ürün grubunun 2006 yılı talep tahminlerinin oluşturulmasında kullanılması gereken en etkin tahminleme yöntemi belirlenmesine yönelik hipotezler geliştirilmiş ve analizler yapılmıştır

Abstract

For businesses to survive and compete under increasing competition conditions they must determine the effective decisions about various issues they are faced with. Since the future decisions contain uncertainty for businesses, it is needed to develop various forecasts to make those decisions. One of them is the demand forecasts. Businesses’ forecasting their products’ demand possesses an important input attribute for themarketing strategies to be determined. In the introduction section of the study, basic concepts in demand management, qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques are being considered; in the literature review, primary demand forecastingoriented studies are being mentioned and in the last section qualitative techniques are being applied to forecast product demand. According to the business data, the hypothesis are constructed and analysis are performed to determine the most effective forecasting method to produce ceramic product category’s demand forecasts for 2006.

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