An Analysis of Turkey’s Energy Efficiency with Artificial Neural Networks and ARDL Approach

Abstract

This study investigates Turkey’s energy efficiency for the period of 1960-2013 utilizing the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) in the context of TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution) and Artificial Neural Networks algorithm. In the first stage of the analysis, energy efficiency scores obtained via TOPSIS, then efficiency scores employed as output for the Artificial Neural Networks. Finally, ARDL utilized to estimate the coefficients of the variables both in the short and the long run. The empirical results depict that Turkey’s energy efficiency tends to increase over the years. Besides, according to Artificial Neural Networks results, the most important variable determining energy efficiency is found to be per capita capital stock.

Keywords

• Enery efficiency,TOPSIS,Artificial Neural Networks,ARDL

Türkiye’nin Enerji Verimliliğinin Yapay Sinir Ağı ve ARDL Yaklaşımı ile Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin enerji verimliliği ARDL yöntemi, TOPSIS yöntemi ve yapay sinir ağları algoritması analizleri çerçevesinde 1960-2013 dönemi için incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın ilk aşamasında TOPSIS yöntemi kullanılarak enerji verimlilik skorları elde edilmiştir, elde edilen skorlar daha sonra Yapay Sinir Ağlarının çıktı verisi olarak kullanılmıştır. Son olarak, değişkenlerin kısa ve uzun dönem katsayıları ARDL yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye’nin enerji verimliliğinin yıllara göre artma eğiliminde olduğunu göstermektedir. Bunun yanında, Yapay Sinir Ağları analizi sonuçlarına göre enerji etkinliğini belirleyen en önemli değişken kişi başına düşen sermaye stokudur.

Keywords

• Enerji etkinliği,TOPSIS,Yapay Sinir Ağları Algoritması,ARDL

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