Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey

Abstract

In this paper, sustainability of current account deficit in Turkey is investigated by considering the long-run relationship between export and import for the period 1992:Q1-2011:Q3. Engle and Granger (1987) and Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) are used to determine the long-run relationship between export and import. According to the results, although there is a long-run relationship between export and import, current account deficit are sustainable in the weak form

Keywords

• Sustainability of current account deficit, structural break, cointegration

Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 1992:Q1-2011:Q3 dönemi için Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının sürdürülebilirliği ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiden hareketle incelenmiştir. Engle ve Granger (1987) ile Pesaran ve Shin (1999) ve Pesaran ve diğerleri (2001) yöntemleri ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi belirlemek üzere kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları ihracat ile ithalat arasında uzun dönemli denge ilişkisi bulunduğuna ve sürdürülebilirliğin zayıf formda olduğuna işaret etmiştir

Keywords

• Cari işlemler açığının sürdürülebilirliği, yapısal kırılma, eştümleşme

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