Determinants of Energy Supply Security: An Econometric Analysis For Turkey

Abstract

Energy is a major input for almost all goods and services sectors; a critical foundation for economic growth and social progress. Along with social progress and economic development, energy demand is continuously increasing. Therefore, energy supply security, which means providing uninterruptible energy supply, is of vital importance for sustainable economic development. The study sheds light on concept and indicators of energy security. First We, defined the concept of energy supply security. After providing a brief literature survey on energy security, we try to investigate the main determinants of energy supply security. Accessibility, availability, affordability and acceptability are the main dimensions of energy supply security. Four indices are constructed to measure energy supply security: Import Dependency Index, Intensity Index, Domestic Production Index and Composite Index. Following a literature survey of the main determinants of supply security, and with the availability of data, an ad hoc model is formed and estimated by a Granger Causality Test and a Johansen Cointegration Analysis for the period 1970-2009 for Turkey

Keywords

• : Energy Supply Security, Energy ıntensity, Renewable Energy, Import Dependency, Granger Causality Test, Johansen Co-integration Analysis, Model Construction and Estimation.

Determinants Of Energy Supply Security: An Econometric Analysis For Turkey

Abstract

Enerji hemen hemen tüm mal ve hizmet sektörleri için önemli bir girdi ve ekonomik büyüme ve sosyal ilerleme için kritik bir temel ihtiyaçtır. Toplumsal ilerleme ve ekonomik gelişmeyle birlikte, enerji ihtiyacı da sürekli artış göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, sürdürülebilir ekonomik gelişme için gerekli enerji arzını, kesintisiz şekilde sağlamayı ifade eden, enerji arz güvenliği, hayati öneme sahiptir. Çalışma, enerji güveliği kavramına ışık tutmaktadır. Öncelikle enerji güvenliği kavramı tanımı yapıldı. Eneji güvenliği üzerine yapılan çalışmaları içeren literatür taramasından sonra, enerji arz güvenliğini belirleyen faktörler araştırıldı. Erişilebilirlik, kullanılabilirlik, ekonomik olma ve kabul edilebilir olma, enerji arz güvenliğinin ana boyutlarıdır. Enerji arz güvenliğini ölçmek için dört endeks geliştirilmiştir: Bağımlılık Endeksi, Yoğunluk Endeksi, Yerli Üretim Endeksi ve Bileşik Endeks. Enerji arz güvenliğini etkileyen faktörleri belirlemek amacıyla, literatürde konuyla ilgili tarama yapıldı. İlgili verilerin varlığı da dikkate alınarak; bir ad hoc model oluşturuldu. Model 1970-2009 dönemi için Granger Nedensellik Testi ve Johansen Eşbütünleşme Analiziyle tahmin edilerek, Türkiye için geçerliliği test edildi

Keywords

• Enerji Arz güvenliği, Yenilenebilir Enerji, Granger Nedensellik Testi, Johansen eşbütünleşme Analizi.

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