Determinants of Sectoral Import in Manufacturing Industry: A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This paper investigates determinants of sectoral import in Turkey’s manufacturing industry over a sample from 1998Q1 to 2012Q2 by using Augmented Mean Group analysis which is introduced by Eberhardt and Teal (2008) and developed by Eberhardt and Bond (2009). The model takes into account parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Cross-sectional dependence is tested by CD-Bias test of Pesaran (2008), while Cross-Sectionally Augmented DickeyFuller (CADF) test proposed by Pesaran (2007) is employed for testing for the presence of a unit root and cointegration among the variables is tested by using the methodology of Westerlund (2008). The regression results indicate that elasticities of import demand with respect to industrial production are different at sectoral level and coefficients of real exchange rate are significant and positive for almost all of the sectors. It is seen that the sectors with highest elasticities of import demand with respect to industrial production are basic metals, motor vehicles, eletrical machinery and textiles. Also, working day variable and crisis dummy are used to explore the impact of calendar day effect and global crisis

Keywords

• Turkey, import, sectoral panel analysis

İmalat Sanayinde Sektörel İthalatın Belirleyicileri: Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye imalat sanayisinde sektörel bazda ithalatın belirleyicilerini 1998Ç1-2012Ç2 dönemi için Eberhardt (2008) tarafından bulunan ve Eberhardt ve Bond (2009) tarafından geliştirilen Augmented Mean Group yöntemi kullanarak tahmin etmektedir. Model, parametre heterojenliğini ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate almaktadır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı Pesaran (2008) tarafından geliştirilen CD-Bias testi ile sınanırken, birim kök testi için Pesaran (2007) tarafından bulunan Cross-Sectionally Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF), koentegrasyon analizi için ise Westerlund (2008) tarafından geliştirilen Durbin Hausman testi kullanılmıştır. Regresyon sonuçlarına göre, sektörel bazda sanayi üretimi ve reel efektif döviz kuru katsayıları pozitif ve anlamlı bulunmuştur. İthalatın üretim esnekliğinin en yüksek olduğu sektörlerin metal ürünleri, motorlu araçlar, elektrikli makinalar ve tekstil olduğu ortaya konmuştur. Ayrıca, modelde çalışma günü değişkeni ve kriz kuklası, küresel kriz ve takvim etkisini görmek için kullanılmıştır

Keywords

• Türkiye, ithalat, sektörel veri analizi

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