ALTERNATİF KUR REJİMİ SINIFLAMA YÖNTEMİ: YÜKSELEN PİYASA EKONOMİLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ANALİZ

Year 2009, Volume: 9 Issue: 4, 1399 - 1426, 01.11.2009

Mehmet Güçlü A. Ayşen Kaya

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde 1962-2006 döneminde resmen ilan edilen (de jure) kur rejimleri ile fiilen uygulanan (de facto) kur rejimleri arasında bir farklılık bulunup bulunmadığı belirlenmeye çalışılmış ve bu amaçla alternatif bir kur rejimi sınıflandırma yöntemi geliştirilmiştir. Ayrıca 1973-1999 dönemi için söz konusu ekonomilerde “iki kutup hipotezinin” ve “dalgalanma korkusu hipotezinin” geçerliliği test edilmiştir. Alternatif sınıflama yöntemi ile elde edilen bulgular ilgili dönemde resmen ilan edilen ile fiilen uygulanan kur rejimleri arasında ciddi farklıklar olduğu yönündedir. Bu alternatif yöntemle elde edilen sonuçlar yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde iki kutup hipotezini destekleyecek bulgulara ulaşamazken, dalgalanma korkusu hipotezini destekleyecek bulgulara ulaşmıştır

Keywords

Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri, İki Kutup Hipotezi Dalgalanma Korkusu

AN ALTERNATIVE METHOD FOR EXCHANGE RATE REGIME CLASSIFICATION: AN ANALYSIS OF EMERGING MARKETS

Abstract

In this paper, it is aimed at determining whether there is a difference between the de jure and de facto exchange regimes in emerging market economies for the period 1962-2006 or not, and to do this, an alternative method for exchange rate regime classification is developed. Besides, the validity of “the bipolar hypothesis” and “fear of floating” in the economies at issue over the period 1973-1999 is tested. The findings of the alternative classification method say that there is a serious difference between the de jure and de facto regimes in the period under discussion. While the findings don’t support the bipolar hypothesis, the results approve the existence of the fear of floating in emerging market economies

Keywords

Emerging Market Economies, Bipolar Hypothesis, Fear of Floating

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