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GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERE YÖNELİK ULUSLARARASI SERMAYE HAREKETLERİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2010, Volume: 10 Issue: 4, 1207 - 1216, 01.11.2010

Hasan Vergil Coşkun Karaca

Abstract

1980’lerden sonra yaşanan finansal serbestleşme politikaları nedeniyle uluslararası sermaye hareketlerinde meydana gelen büyük artışlar gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ekonomik büyümenin önemli bir kaynağı olan sermaye birikimini sağlarken, teknik bilgi ve beşeri sermaye gibi büyüme üzerinde önemli etkileri olan dinamikleri de harekete geçirmiştir. Yapılan ampirik çalışmalarda sermaye hareketlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin ülkeden ülkeye farklı olabileceği görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, panel veri test ve tahmin yöntemleri kullanılarak gelişmekte olan ülkelere giren uluslararası sermaye hareketlerinin bu ülkelerin ekonomik büyümesi üzerindeki etkileri 1980–2005 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan tahminler sonucunda, teorik ve ampirik literatürle tutarlı biçimde, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve portföy yatırımlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi pozitif bulunurken, kısa vadeli sermaye yatırımlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi negatif bulunmuştur

Keywords

Uluslararası sermaye hareketleri ekonomik büyüme

References

  • Akinlo, A. E. (2004); “Foreign Direct İnvestment and Growth in Nigeria. An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, s. 627-639.
  • Alfaro, L., Chanda, A. Kalemli-Ozcan, Ş. ve Sayek, S. (2004); “FDI and Economic Growth: The Role Of Local Financial Markets,” Journal Of International Economics, 64, s. 89-112.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z. ve Thanoon, M. A. (2006); “Foreign Capital Flows and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries, China Economic Review, Cilt 17.
  • Balasubramanyam N, Salisu, M. ve Sapsford, D. (1999); “Foreign Direct Investment as an Engine of Growth,” The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Cilt 8, 1. Baskı, Mart 1999, s. 27 – 40.
  • Baltagi, B. (2001); Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.
  • Bekaert, G. ve Harvey, C. R. (1998); “Capital Flows and The Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns,” NBER Working Series, Working Paper No. 6669, http://www.nber.org/papers/w6669.pdf.
  • Bende-Nabende, A. ve Ford, J.L. (1998); “FDI, Policy Adjustment and Endogenous Growth: Multiplier Effects From a Small Dynamic Model For Taiwan, 1959-1995,” World Development, 26(7), s. 1315-1330.
  • Bengoa, M. ve Sanchez-Robles, B. (2003). “Foreign Direct Investment, Economic freedom and Growth: New Evidence from Latin America,” European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), s. 529- 545.
  • Borenzstein E., De Gregorio, J. ve Lee, J. W. (1998); “How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?” Journal of International Economics, 45, s. 115–135.
  • Caves, R. (1999); “Spillovers From Multinationals in Developing Countries: The Mechanisms at Work,” William Davidson Institute Working Paper, No.247, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
  • Charemza, W. W. and Deadman, D. F. (1997); New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling, Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Second Edition, Edward Elgar Publishing, Chelthenham, UK.
  • De Mello, L. R. Jr. (1997); “Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries and Growth: A Selective Survey,” The Journal of Development Studies, 34:1-34, http://pdfserve.informaworld. com/38108_758064766_787115080.pdf.
  • De Mello, L. R. Jr. (1999); “Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data”, Oxford Economic Papers, Cilt 51, No.1, s.133–51.
  • Göksu, E. (2005); “Türkiye’de Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri,” Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, A.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Hadri K. (2000); “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panels,” The Econometrics Journal 3: 148-161.
  • Hansen, H. ve Rand, J. (2006); “On the Causal Links Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries,” The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), 01, 21-41.
  • Heil, M. T. ve Selden, T. M. (1999); “Panel Stationarity with Structural Breaks: Carbon Emissions and GNP,” Applied Economic Letters, 6, 223-225.
  • Im,S.K., Pesaran, M.H., Shin,Y. (2003); “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 1, 53-74.
  • Işık, S, Duman, K.ve Korkmaz, A. (2004); “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal krizler: Bir Faktör Analizi Uygulaması,” D.E.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt:19, Sayı:1, Yıl:2004, s. 45-69.
  • İnsel, A. ve Sungur, N. (2003); “Sermaye Akımlarının Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği – 1989: III-1999:IV,” Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni, 2003/8.
  • Khaliq, A. ve. Noy, I. (2007); “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Sectoral Data in Indonesia,” University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics Working Papers, No.200726.
  • Kont, B. (1998); Sermaye Girişleri ve Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Deneyimi: 1990-1996, İktisat Politikası, İstanbul, Alfa Basımevi.
  • Kregel, J. (2000); “The Brazilian Crisis: From Inertial Inflation To Fiscal Fragility”, Levy Institute, Econ WPA Working Paper, Paper No.4040.
  • Ledyaeva, S. ve Linden, M. (2006); “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Russian Regions,” Bofit Discussion Papers, Paper no. 17/2006.
  • Laureti, L. ve Postiglione, P. (2005); “The Effects Of Capital Inflows On The Economic Growth in The Med Area,” Journal Of Policy Modelling, 27, s. 839-851.
  • Levin,A., Lin,C.F. (2002); “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results”, Discussion Papers, 93, 56, s.1-38.
  • Li, X. ve Liu X. (2004); “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: An İncreasingly Endogenous Relationship,” World Development, 33(3), s. 393-407.
  • López-Mejía, A. (1999) “Large Capital Flows: A Survey Of The Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses,” IMF Working Paper, No. 99/17.
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999); “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, s. 631–52.
  • McLean, B. ve Shrestha, S. (2002); “International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth,” Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Papers, No. 2002-03.
  • Merlevede, B. ve Schoors, K. (2004); “Reform, FDI and Economic Growth: Tale Of The Tortoise and The Hare,” William Davidson Institute, Working Paper Number 730.
  • Prasad, E., Rajan, R. G. ve Subramanian, A. (2006); “Patterns of International Capital Flows and Their Implications for Economic Development,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Journal, Cilt 06, s. 119-158.
  • Romer, D. (1996); Advanced Macroeconomics, The McGraw-Hill Companies, New York, USA..
  • Romer, P. M. (1993); “Idea Gaps and Object Gaps in Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Cilt 32(3), s. 543-573.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956); “A Countribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.
  • Soto, M. (2000). “Capital Flows and Growth in Developing Countries: Recent Empirical Evidence,” OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No.160, Temmuz 2000.
  • Şimşek, A.R. (2007); “Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkileri,” Balıkesir Üniversitesi, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Waheed, A. (2004); “Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth of Developing Countries: A Critical Survey of Selected Empirical Studies,” Journal of Economic Cooperation, 25, s. 1-36.
  • Weil, David N. (2005) Economic Growth, Addison-Wesley: Boston.
  • Yıldırır, H. (2003); “Yabancı Sermaye ve A.B.D.’ye Yönelik Portföy Yatırımları,” İşgücdergi, Cilt.5, Sayı 2.

The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis

Year 2010, Volume: 10 Issue: 4, 1207 - 1216, 01.11.2010

Hasan Vergil Coşkun Karaca

Abstract

While huge increases in international capital movements due to financial liberalization policies after 1980s have increased capital accumulation of developing countries, they have also triggered some growth affecting dynamics such as technological information and human capital. The empirical studies suggest that capital inflows might have different effects on countries’ economic growths. In this study, using panel data test and estimation techniques, the effects of international capital movements on economic growth of developing countries are investigated for the period 1980-2005. The results are consistent with theoretical and empirical literature revealing that while foreign direct investment and portfolio investment have positive effects, short term capital investments have negative effects on economic growth of countries in the sample

Keywords

International capital movements economic growth

References

  • Akinlo, A. E. (2004); “Foreign Direct İnvestment and Growth in Nigeria. An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, s. 627-639.
  • Alfaro, L., Chanda, A. Kalemli-Ozcan, Ş. ve Sayek, S. (2004); “FDI and Economic Growth: The Role Of Local Financial Markets,” Journal Of International Economics, 64, s. 89-112.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z. ve Thanoon, M. A. (2006); “Foreign Capital Flows and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries, China Economic Review, Cilt 17.
  • Balasubramanyam N, Salisu, M. ve Sapsford, D. (1999); “Foreign Direct Investment as an Engine of Growth,” The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Cilt 8, 1. Baskı, Mart 1999, s. 27 – 40.
  • Baltagi, B. (2001); Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.
  • Bekaert, G. ve Harvey, C. R. (1998); “Capital Flows and The Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns,” NBER Working Series, Working Paper No. 6669, http://www.nber.org/papers/w6669.pdf.
  • Bende-Nabende, A. ve Ford, J.L. (1998); “FDI, Policy Adjustment and Endogenous Growth: Multiplier Effects From a Small Dynamic Model For Taiwan, 1959-1995,” World Development, 26(7), s. 1315-1330.
  • Bengoa, M. ve Sanchez-Robles, B. (2003). “Foreign Direct Investment, Economic freedom and Growth: New Evidence from Latin America,” European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), s. 529- 545.
  • Borenzstein E., De Gregorio, J. ve Lee, J. W. (1998); “How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?” Journal of International Economics, 45, s. 115–135.
  • Caves, R. (1999); “Spillovers From Multinationals in Developing Countries: The Mechanisms at Work,” William Davidson Institute Working Paper, No.247, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
  • Charemza, W. W. and Deadman, D. F. (1997); New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling, Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Second Edition, Edward Elgar Publishing, Chelthenham, UK.
  • De Mello, L. R. Jr. (1997); “Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries and Growth: A Selective Survey,” The Journal of Development Studies, 34:1-34, http://pdfserve.informaworld. com/38108_758064766_787115080.pdf.
  • De Mello, L. R. Jr. (1999); “Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data”, Oxford Economic Papers, Cilt 51, No.1, s.133–51.
  • Göksu, E. (2005); “Türkiye’de Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri,” Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, A.Ü. Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Hadri K. (2000); “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panels,” The Econometrics Journal 3: 148-161.
  • Hansen, H. ve Rand, J. (2006); “On the Causal Links Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries,” The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), 01, 21-41.
  • Heil, M. T. ve Selden, T. M. (1999); “Panel Stationarity with Structural Breaks: Carbon Emissions and GNP,” Applied Economic Letters, 6, 223-225.
  • Im,S.K., Pesaran, M.H., Shin,Y. (2003); “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 1, 53-74.
  • Işık, S, Duman, K.ve Korkmaz, A. (2004); “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal krizler: Bir Faktör Analizi Uygulaması,” D.E.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt:19, Sayı:1, Yıl:2004, s. 45-69.
  • İnsel, A. ve Sungur, N. (2003); “Sermaye Akımlarının Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği – 1989: III-1999:IV,” Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni, 2003/8.
  • Khaliq, A. ve. Noy, I. (2007); “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Sectoral Data in Indonesia,” University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics Working Papers, No.200726.
  • Kont, B. (1998); Sermaye Girişleri ve Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Deneyimi: 1990-1996, İktisat Politikası, İstanbul, Alfa Basımevi.
  • Kregel, J. (2000); “The Brazilian Crisis: From Inertial Inflation To Fiscal Fragility”, Levy Institute, Econ WPA Working Paper, Paper No.4040.
  • Ledyaeva, S. ve Linden, M. (2006); “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Russian Regions,” Bofit Discussion Papers, Paper no. 17/2006.
  • Laureti, L. ve Postiglione, P. (2005); “The Effects Of Capital Inflows On The Economic Growth in The Med Area,” Journal Of Policy Modelling, 27, s. 839-851.
  • Levin,A., Lin,C.F. (2002); “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: New Results”, Discussion Papers, 93, 56, s.1-38.
  • Li, X. ve Liu X. (2004); “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: An İncreasingly Endogenous Relationship,” World Development, 33(3), s. 393-407.
  • López-Mejía, A. (1999) “Large Capital Flows: A Survey Of The Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses,” IMF Working Paper, No. 99/17.
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999); “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, s. 631–52.
  • McLean, B. ve Shrestha, S. (2002); “International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth,” Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Papers, No. 2002-03.
  • Merlevede, B. ve Schoors, K. (2004); “Reform, FDI and Economic Growth: Tale Of The Tortoise and The Hare,” William Davidson Institute, Working Paper Number 730.
  • Prasad, E., Rajan, R. G. ve Subramanian, A. (2006); “Patterns of International Capital Flows and Their Implications for Economic Development,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Journal, Cilt 06, s. 119-158.
  • Romer, D. (1996); Advanced Macroeconomics, The McGraw-Hill Companies, New York, USA..
  • Romer, P. M. (1993); “Idea Gaps and Object Gaps in Economic Development,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Cilt 32(3), s. 543-573.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956); “A Countribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.
  • Soto, M. (2000). “Capital Flows and Growth in Developing Countries: Recent Empirical Evidence,” OECD Development Centre, Working Paper No.160, Temmuz 2000.
  • Şimşek, A.R. (2007); “Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisine Etkileri,” Balıkesir Üniversitesi, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Waheed, A. (2004); “Foreign Capital Inflows and Economic Growth of Developing Countries: A Critical Survey of Selected Empirical Studies,” Journal of Economic Cooperation, 25, s. 1-36.
  • Weil, David N. (2005) Economic Growth, Addison-Wesley: Boston.
  • Yıldırır, H. (2003); “Yabancı Sermaye ve A.B.D.’ye Yönelik Portföy Yatırımları,” İşgücdergi, Cilt.5, Sayı 2.
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA68PB35NM
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Hasan Vergil This is me

Coşkun Karaca This is me

Publication Date November 1, 2010
Published in Issue Year 2010 Volume: 10 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Vergil, H., & Karaca, C. (2010). The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis. Ege Academic Review, 10(4), 1207-1216.
AMA Vergil H, Karaca C. The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis. ear. November 2010;10(4):1207-1216.
Chicago Vergil, Hasan, and Coşkun Karaca. “The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis”. Ege Academic Review 10, no. 4 (November 2010): 1207-16.
EndNote Vergil H, Karaca C (November 1, 2010) The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis. Ege Academic Review 10 4 1207–1216.
IEEE H. Vergil and C. Karaca, “The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis”, ear, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 1207–1216, 2010.
ISNAD Vergil, Hasan - Karaca, Coşkun. “The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis”. Ege Academic Review 10/4 (November 2010), 1207-1216.
JAMA Vergil H, Karaca C. The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis. ear. 2010;10:1207–1216.
MLA Vergil, Hasan and Coşkun Karaca. “The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis”. Ege Academic Review, vol. 10, no. 4, 2010, pp. 1207-16.
Vancouver Vergil H, Karaca C. The Effects of International Capital Movements through Developing Countries on Economic Growth: The Panel Data Analysis. ear. 2010;10(4):1207-16.