Determinants of Energy Supply Security: An Econometric Analysis For Turkey

Year 2015, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 153 - 164, 01.05.2015

Leman Erdal

Abstract

Energy is a major input for almost all goods and services sectors; a critical foundation for economic growth and social progress. Along with social progress and economic development, energy demand is continuously increasing. Therefore, energy supply security, which means providing uninterruptible energy supply, is of vital importance for sustainable economic development. The study sheds light on concept and indicators of energy security. First We, defined the concept of energy supply security. After providing a brief literature survey on energy security, we try to investigate the main determinants of energy supply security. Accessibility, availability, affordability and acceptability are the main dimensions of energy supply security. Four indices are constructed to measure energy supply security: Import Dependency Index, Intensity Index, Domestic Production Index and Composite Index. Following a literature survey of the main determinants of supply security, and with the availability of data, an ad hoc model is formed and estimated by a Granger Causality Test and a Johansen Cointegration Analysis for the period 1970-2009 for Turkey

Keywords

: Energy Supply Security, Energy ıntensity, Renewable Energy, Import Dependency, Granger Causality Test, Johansen Co-integration Analysis, Model Construction and Estimation.

Determinants Of Energy Supply Security: An Econometric Analysis For Turkey

Abstract

Enerji hemen hemen tüm mal ve hizmet sektörleri için önemli bir girdi ve ekonomik büyüme ve sosyal ilerleme için kritik bir temel ihtiyaçtır. Toplumsal ilerleme ve ekonomik gelişmeyle birlikte, enerji ihtiyacı da sürekli artış göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, sürdürülebilir ekonomik gelişme için gerekli enerji arzını, kesintisiz şekilde sağlamayı ifade eden, enerji arz güvenliği, hayati öneme sahiptir. Çalışma, enerji güveliği kavramına ışık tutmaktadır. Öncelikle enerji güvenliği kavramı tanımı yapıldı. Eneji güvenliği üzerine yapılan çalışmaları içeren literatür taramasından sonra, enerji arz güvenliğini belirleyen faktörler araştırıldı. Erişilebilirlik, kullanılabilirlik, ekonomik olma ve kabul edilebilir olma, enerji arz güvenliğinin ana boyutlarıdır. Enerji arz güvenliğini ölçmek için dört endeks geliştirilmiştir: Bağımlılık Endeksi, Yoğunluk Endeksi, Yerli Üretim Endeksi ve Bileşik Endeks. Enerji arz güvenliğini etkileyen faktörleri belirlemek amacıyla, literatürde konuyla ilgili tarama yapıldı. İlgili verilerin varlığı da dikkate alınarak; bir ad hoc model oluşturuldu. Model 1970-2009 dönemi için Granger Nedensellik Testi ve Johansen Eşbütünleşme Analiziyle tahmin edilerek, Türkiye için geçerliliği test edildi

Keywords

Enerji Arz güvenliği, Yenilenebilir Enerji, Granger Nedensellik Testi, Johansen eşbütünleşme Analizi.

References

• China is now the world’s largest consumer of energy at 20.3% of global energy consumption as of 2012 REFERENCES
• Aydın, L. and Acar M. (2011), “Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the co- ming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis”, Energy Policy, 39: 1722–1731.
• APERC (2009) “Understanding Energy in China, Geographies of Energy Efficiency”, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC), September 2009. www.ieej. or.jp/aperc.
• Badea, A. C., Rocco C. M. S., Tarantola S., Bolado R. (2011), “Composite Indicators For Security of Energy Supply Using Ordered Weighted Averaging Reliability”, Engineering & System Safety, 96: 651-662.
• Balat, H. (2010), “Security of energy supply in Tur- key: Challenges and solutions”. Energy Conversion and Management, 51:1998-2011.
• Bambawale M. J., Sovacool B. K. (2011), “China’s energy security: The perspective of energy users”, Appli- ed Energy, 88:(5): 1949-1956.
• British Petrol Statistical Review of World Energy (2010) www.bp.com, (05.03.2011).
• British Petrol Statistical Review of World Energy (2011) www.bp.com, (05.05.2011).
• Cabalu, H. (2010), “Indicators of Security of Natural Gas Supply in Asia”, Energy Policy, 38: 218-225.
• Chester, L. (2010), “Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature”, Energy Policy, 38(2): 887-895.
• Costantini, V., Gracceva, F., Markandya, A., Vicini, G.,(2007), “Security Of Energy Supply: Comparing Sce- narios From A European Perspective”, Energy Policy,35: (1): 210-226.
• Ediger, V. Ş. (2003), “Classification and Performance Analysis of Primary Energy Consumers During 1980– 1999”, Energy Conversion and Management, 44; 2991- 3000.
• Ediger, V. Ş. (2009), “Turkey’s Sustainable Energy Development”, TÜBA, Günce, Alternative Energy Sour- ces,39; 15-23, [in Turkish].
• Erdal L. Determinants of the Energy Supply Security and Renewable Energy Sources As An Alternative, (2011), Adnan Menderes University, Social Sciences Department Of Economics, ECON-PhD-2011-0004, unpublished doctoral dissertation, [in Turkish].
• ETKB,2010, “The Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Strategic Plan (2010- 2014)”, p. 12, http://www.enerji.gov.tr, [in Turkish].
• Frondel, M., Schmidh, C. M. (2008), “Measuring Energy Security- A Conceptual Note”, Ruhr Economic Papers, 52:1-19.
• Gnansounou, E., Dong, J. (2010), “Vulnerability of the Economy to the Potential Disturbances of Energy Supply: A Logic-Based Model with Application to The Case of China”, Energy Policy, 38: 2846-2857.
• Gnansounou, E. (2011), “Assessing the Energy Vul- nerability: Case of Industrialised Countries”, Energy Po- licy, 36: 3734-3744.
• Greene, D.L. (2010), “Measuring Energy Security: Can the United States achieve oil independence?”, Energy Policy, 38: 1614–1621.
• Gupta, E. (2008), “Oil Vulnerability Index of Oil- Importing Countries”, Energy Policy, 36: 3: 1195-1211.
• Jansen, J.C., Arkel, W.G.V., Boots, M.G. (2004), “De- signing indicators of long-term energy supply security”, ECN-C--04-007, ss.1-35. ECN Policy Studies, 1/1/2004. ECN report number: Document type: ECN-C-04. http://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/2004/c04007.pdf
• Jansen J.C., Seebregts, A. J. (2011), “Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be me- asured and valued?” , Energy Policy, 38(4):1654-1664.
• Le Coq Chloe´ and Paltseva (2009), “Elena Measu- ring the security of external energy supply in the Europe- an Union”, Energy Policy, 37: 4474-4481.
• Liao, H. B., Fana, Y., Wei, Y.M. (2007), “What Indu- ced China’s Energy Intensity to Fluctuate: 1997–2006”, Energy Policy, 35: 4640-4649.
• Löschel A., Moslener U., Rubbelke, D.T.G. (2010), “Indicators of Energy Security in Industrialised Countri- es”, Energy Policy, 38. 1665-1671.
• Kruyt B. Vuuren D. P.Van, de Vries H. J. M.and Groenenberg H., (2009),”Indicators for energy security”, Energy Policy, 37: 2166–2181.
• OECD-2010, Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development Data on Turkey, http:// www.oecd.org/turkey/, (05.06.2010).
• Onat N., Bayar B. (2010), “The Sustainability Indica- tors of Power Production Systems”, Renewable and Susta- inable Energy Reviews, 14: 3108–3115.
• Shafiee, S., Topal, E. (2008), “An Econometrics View of Worldwide Fossil Fuel Consumption and The Role of US”, Energy Policy, 36: 775-786.
• Sohn, I. (2005), “Energy-Supply Security and Energy Intensity: Some Observations from the 1970- Interval”, Minerals & Energy-Raw Materials Report, 23(4):145-161.
• TUIK, 2010, The Turkish Statistical Institute, (05.03.2010).
• http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist
• Vivoda, V. (2009), “Diversification of Oil Import So- urces and Energy Security: A Key Strategy or an Elusive Objective?”, Energy Policy, 37 (11): 4615-4623.