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Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma

Year 2015, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 197 - 206, 01.05.2015

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki finansal gelişme, ekonomik büyüme, kentleşme ve sanayileşmenin enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla, Türkiye’nin 1960-2012 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak, çalışmada kullanılan bu beş değişkenin birim kök içerip içermediği analiz edilmiştir. Kullanılan geleneksel birim kök testleri sonucunda seriler I(0) ve I(1)’dir. Geleneksel yöntemlere ilave olarak, çoklu yapısal kırılmalara izin veren birim kök testi de kullanılmıştır. Bu testin sonucunda tüm serilerin I(1) olduğu ve yapısal kırılma içerdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Seriler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi olup olmadığını analiz etmek için ise çoklu yapısal kırılmalara izin veren eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmıştır. Bu testin sonucunda seriler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi olduğu ve yapısal kırılma içerdiği tespit edilmiştir. Son olarak model, DOLS ve FMOLS ile tahmin edilmiş ve SVAR modeline dayalı etki-tepki analizi yapılmıştır. Yapılan analiz sonucu, Türkiye’deki enerji tüketimi üzerinde, sırasıyla, ekonomik büyüme, sanayileşme ve finansal gelişmenin öne çıktığı tespit edilmiştir. Kentleşmenin ise fazla bir etkisinin olmadığı belirlenmiştir

References

  • Akbaş, Y.E. ve Şentürk, M. (2013). “MENA Ülkele- rinde Elektrik Tüketimi İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında- ki Karşılıklı İlişkinin Analizi” Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 41: 45-67.
  • Al-Mulali, U. and Lee, J.Y.M. (2013). “Estimating the impact of the financial development on energy con- sumption: Evidence from the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries”, Energy, 60: 215-221
  • Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombart street: A Description of the Money Market, Edward Payson Dutton and Company, New York (Reprint 1920).
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P. (1998). “Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes” Econo- metrica, 66: 47–78.
  • Çoban, S. and Topcu, M. (2013). “The nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the EU: A dynamic panel data analysis” Energy Economics, 39: 81-88.
  • Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T.J. and Stock, J.H. (1996). “Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root” Economet- rica, 64: 813-836.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series, 1st Ed., New York: Wiley.
  • Goldsmith, R.W. (1969). Financial Structure and Eco- nomic Development, Yale University Press, New Haven.
  • Göçer, İ., Mercan, M. ve Peker, O. (2013). “Kredi hacmi artışının cari açığa etkisi: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme analizi” Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 18: 1-17.
  • Gregory, A.W. and Hansen, B.E. (1996). “Residual- based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts” Journal of Econometrics, 70(1): 99-126.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Basic Econometrics, 3rd Editi- on, Mc Graw Hill.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008). “Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to finan- cial market ıntegration” Empirical Economics, 35: 497- 505.
  • Holtemöller, O. (2002). “Structural vector autoreg- ressive models and monetary policy analysis”, Discussion Papers, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quan- tification and Simulation of Economic Processes, No. 2002,7.
  • Islam, F., Shahbaz, M., Ahmed, A.U. and Alam, M.M. (2013). “Financial development and energy con- sumption nexus in Malaysia: a multivariate time series analysis” Economic Modelling, 30: 435-441.
  • Jalil, A. and Feridun, M. (2011). “The impact of growth, energy and financial development on the envi- ronment in China: A cointegration analysis” Energy Eco- nomics, 33: 284-291.
  • Kapetanios, G. (2002), “Unit root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks” Wor- king Papers, No.469.
  • Khan, M.A., Khan, Z.K., Zaman, K. and Arif, M. (2014). “Global estimates of energy-growth nexus: Appli- cation of seemingly unrelated regressions” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29: 63-71.
  • Khan, M.A., Khan, Z.K., Zaman, K., Irfan, D. and Khatab, H. (2014). “Questing the three key growth de- terminants: Energy consumption, foreign direct invest- ment and financial development in South Asia” Renewab- le Energy, 68: 203-215.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L. and Papell, D.H. (1997). “Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2): 212-218.
  • Mackinnon, J.G. (1996). “Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11: 601–618.
  • Maki, D. (2012). “Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks” Economic Modelling, 29(5): 2011-2015.
  • McCoy, D. (1997). “How useful is structural VAR analysis for Irish economics”, Research Technical Papers, No.2/RT/97.
  • Mckinnon, R.I. (1973). Money and Capital in Eco- nomic Development, The Brookings Institution, Washing- ton, DC.
  • Mudakkar, S.R., Zaman, K., Shakir, H., Arif, M., Naseem, I. and Naz, L. (2013). “Determinants of energy consumption function in SAARC countries: Balancing the odds”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28: 566-574.
  • Ozturk, I. (2010). “A literature survey on energy- growth nexus”, Energy Policy, 38, 340-349.
  • Ozturk, I. and Acaravci (2013). “The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey”, Energy Eco- nomics, 36: 262-267.
  • Pao, H.-T. and Tsai, C.-M. (2011). “Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy con- sumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, and China) countries” Energy, 36: 685-693.
  • Pedroni, P. (2000). “Fully modified OLS for heteroge- neous cointegrated panels” Advances in Econometrics, 15: 93–130.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. and Hansen, B.E. (1990). “Statistical inference in instrumental variables regressions with I(1) processes” Review of Economic Studies, 57(1): 99-125.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2010). “The impact of financial deve- lopment on energy consumption in emerging economies” Energy Policy, 38: 2528-2535.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2011). “Financial development and energy consumption in Central and Eastern European frontier economies” Energy Policy, 39: 999-1006.
  • Schumpeter, J.A. (1911). The Theory of Economic De- velopment. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (Reprin- ted 1969).
  • Shahbaz, M. and Lean, H.H. (2012). “Does finan- cial development increase energy consumption? the role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia” Energy Policy, 40: 473-479.
  • Shahbaz, M., Hye, Q.M.A., Tiwari, A.K. and Leitão, N.C. (2013). “Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emis- sions in Indonesia” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Re- views, 25: 109-121.
  • Shahbaz, M., Khan, S. and Tahir, M.I. (2013). “The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis” Energy Economics, 40: 8-21.
  • Shahbaz, M., Mutascu, M. and Azim, P. (2013). “En- vironmental Kuznets curve in Romania and the role of energy consumption” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 18: 165-173.
  • Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S.A., Mahmood, H. and Arou- ri, M. (2013). “Does financial development reduce CO2 emissions in Malaysian economy? A time series analysis” Economic Modelling, 35: 145-152.
  • Shahbaz, M., Tiwari, A.K. and Nasir, M. (2013). “The effectsof financial development, economic growth, coal consumption and trade openness on CO2 emissions in South Africa” Energy Policy, 61: 1452-1459.
  • Shahbaz, M., Uddin, G.S., Rehman, I.U. and Imran, K. (2014). “Industrialization, electricity consumptionand CO2 emissions in Bangladesh” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 31: 575-586.
  • Shaw, E.S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Solarin, S.A. and Shahbaz, M. (2013). “Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and ca- usality analysis” Energy Policy, 60: 876-884.
  • Stock, J. and Watson, M.W. (1993). “A simple esti- mator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems”, Econometrica, 61(4): 783-820.
  • Tang, C.F. and Shahbaz, M. (2011). “Revisiting the Electricity Consumption-Growth Nexus for Portu- gal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis” MPRA Paper, no.28393.
  • Yaylalı, M. ve Lebe, F. (2011). “Beşeri Sermaye ile İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi” Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, XXX(I): 23-51.
  • Zhang, Y.-J., Fan, J.-L. and Chang, H.-R. (2011). “Impact of China’s stock market development on energy consumption: An empirical analysis” Energy Procedia, 5: 1927-1931.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). “Furtheer vidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3): 251-270.

Effect of Industrialization, Financial Development, Economic Growth and Urbanization on Energy Consumption in Turkey: An Evidence with Multiple Structural Breaks

Year 2015, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 197 - 206, 01.05.2015

Abstract

The aim of the present study is to investigate the effect of financial development, economic growth, urbanization and industrialization on energy consumption in Turkey. For this purpose, the annual data of Turkey for the period 1960-2012 was used in the study. First, it was analyzed whether these five variables used in the study contained a unit root. As a result of the traditional unit root tests series are I(0) and I(1). In addition to traditional methods, the unit root test that allows multiple structural breaks was also used. As the result of this test, it was found that all the series were I(1) and contained structural breaks. The cointegration test that allows for multiple structural breaks was used in order to analyze whether there is a long term relationship between the series. As the result of this test, it was found that there was a long term relationship between the series and the series contained structural breaks. Finally, the model was predicted through DOLS and FMOLS and an impulse-response analysis was performed based on the SVAR model. As the result of the analysis, it was determined that the effects of economic growth, industrialization and financial development were respectively prominent on the energy consumption in Turkey. The effect of urbanization on energy consumption was not found to be considerable

References

  • Akbaş, Y.E. ve Şentürk, M. (2013). “MENA Ülkele- rinde Elektrik Tüketimi İle Ekonomik Büyüme Arasında- ki Karşılıklı İlişkinin Analizi” Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 41: 45-67.
  • Al-Mulali, U. and Lee, J.Y.M. (2013). “Estimating the impact of the financial development on energy con- sumption: Evidence from the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries”, Energy, 60: 215-221
  • Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombart street: A Description of the Money Market, Edward Payson Dutton and Company, New York (Reprint 1920).
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P. (1998). “Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes” Econo- metrica, 66: 47–78.
  • Çoban, S. and Topcu, M. (2013). “The nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the EU: A dynamic panel data analysis” Energy Economics, 39: 81-88.
  • Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T.J. and Stock, J.H. (1996). “Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root” Economet- rica, 64: 813-836.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series, 1st Ed., New York: Wiley.
  • Goldsmith, R.W. (1969). Financial Structure and Eco- nomic Development, Yale University Press, New Haven.
  • Göçer, İ., Mercan, M. ve Peker, O. (2013). “Kredi hacmi artışının cari açığa etkisi: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme analizi” Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 18: 1-17.
  • Gregory, A.W. and Hansen, B.E. (1996). “Residual- based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts” Journal of Econometrics, 70(1): 99-126.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Basic Econometrics, 3rd Editi- on, Mc Graw Hill.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008). “Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to finan- cial market ıntegration” Empirical Economics, 35: 497- 505.
  • Holtemöller, O. (2002). “Structural vector autoreg- ressive models and monetary policy analysis”, Discussion Papers, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quan- tification and Simulation of Economic Processes, No. 2002,7.
  • Islam, F., Shahbaz, M., Ahmed, A.U. and Alam, M.M. (2013). “Financial development and energy con- sumption nexus in Malaysia: a multivariate time series analysis” Economic Modelling, 30: 435-441.
  • Jalil, A. and Feridun, M. (2011). “The impact of growth, energy and financial development on the envi- ronment in China: A cointegration analysis” Energy Eco- nomics, 33: 284-291.
  • Kapetanios, G. (2002), “Unit root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks” Wor- king Papers, No.469.
  • Khan, M.A., Khan, Z.K., Zaman, K. and Arif, M. (2014). “Global estimates of energy-growth nexus: Appli- cation of seemingly unrelated regressions” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 29: 63-71.
  • Khan, M.A., Khan, Z.K., Zaman, K., Irfan, D. and Khatab, H. (2014). “Questing the three key growth de- terminants: Energy consumption, foreign direct invest- ment and financial development in South Asia” Renewab- le Energy, 68: 203-215.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L. and Papell, D.H. (1997). “Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2): 212-218.
  • Mackinnon, J.G. (1996). “Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11: 601–618.
  • Maki, D. (2012). “Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks” Economic Modelling, 29(5): 2011-2015.
  • McCoy, D. (1997). “How useful is structural VAR analysis for Irish economics”, Research Technical Papers, No.2/RT/97.
  • Mckinnon, R.I. (1973). Money and Capital in Eco- nomic Development, The Brookings Institution, Washing- ton, DC.
  • Mudakkar, S.R., Zaman, K., Shakir, H., Arif, M., Naseem, I. and Naz, L. (2013). “Determinants of energy consumption function in SAARC countries: Balancing the odds”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28: 566-574.
  • Ozturk, I. (2010). “A literature survey on energy- growth nexus”, Energy Policy, 38, 340-349.
  • Ozturk, I. and Acaravci (2013). “The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emissions in Turkey”, Energy Eco- nomics, 36: 262-267.
  • Pao, H.-T. and Tsai, C.-M. (2011). “Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy con- sumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, and China) countries” Energy, 36: 685-693.
  • Pedroni, P. (2000). “Fully modified OLS for heteroge- neous cointegrated panels” Advances in Econometrics, 15: 93–130.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. and Hansen, B.E. (1990). “Statistical inference in instrumental variables regressions with I(1) processes” Review of Economic Studies, 57(1): 99-125.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2010). “The impact of financial deve- lopment on energy consumption in emerging economies” Energy Policy, 38: 2528-2535.
  • Sadorsky, P. (2011). “Financial development and energy consumption in Central and Eastern European frontier economies” Energy Policy, 39: 999-1006.
  • Schumpeter, J.A. (1911). The Theory of Economic De- velopment. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (Reprin- ted 1969).
  • Shahbaz, M. and Lean, H.H. (2012). “Does finan- cial development increase energy consumption? the role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia” Energy Policy, 40: 473-479.
  • Shahbaz, M., Hye, Q.M.A., Tiwari, A.K. and Leitão, N.C. (2013). “Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emis- sions in Indonesia” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Re- views, 25: 109-121.
  • Shahbaz, M., Khan, S. and Tahir, M.I. (2013). “The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis” Energy Economics, 40: 8-21.
  • Shahbaz, M., Mutascu, M. and Azim, P. (2013). “En- vironmental Kuznets curve in Romania and the role of energy consumption” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 18: 165-173.
  • Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S.A., Mahmood, H. and Arou- ri, M. (2013). “Does financial development reduce CO2 emissions in Malaysian economy? A time series analysis” Economic Modelling, 35: 145-152.
  • Shahbaz, M., Tiwari, A.K. and Nasir, M. (2013). “The effectsof financial development, economic growth, coal consumption and trade openness on CO2 emissions in South Africa” Energy Policy, 61: 1452-1459.
  • Shahbaz, M., Uddin, G.S., Rehman, I.U. and Imran, K. (2014). “Industrialization, electricity consumptionand CO2 emissions in Bangladesh” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 31: 575-586.
  • Shaw, E.S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Solarin, S.A. and Shahbaz, M. (2013). “Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and ca- usality analysis” Energy Policy, 60: 876-884.
  • Stock, J. and Watson, M.W. (1993). “A simple esti- mator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems”, Econometrica, 61(4): 783-820.
  • Tang, C.F. and Shahbaz, M. (2011). “Revisiting the Electricity Consumption-Growth Nexus for Portu- gal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis” MPRA Paper, no.28393.
  • Yaylalı, M. ve Lebe, F. (2011). “Beşeri Sermaye ile İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi” Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, XXX(I): 23-51.
  • Zhang, Y.-J., Fan, J.-L. and Chang, H.-R. (2011). “Impact of China’s stock market development on energy consumption: An empirical analysis” Energy Procedia, 5: 1927-1931.
  • Zivot, E. and Andrews, D.W.K. (1992). “Furtheer vidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3): 251-270.
There are 46 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Political Science
Other ID JA67CG45TB
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş This is me

Fuat Lebe This is me

Publication Date May 1, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2015 Volume: 15 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Akbaş, Y. E., & Lebe, F. (2015). Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma. Ege Academic Review, 15(2), 197-206.
AMA Akbaş YE, Lebe F. Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma. ear. May 2015;15(2):197-206.
Chicago Akbaş, Yusuf Ekrem, and Fuat Lebe. “Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme Ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma”. Ege Academic Review 15, no. 2 (May 2015): 197-206.
EndNote Akbaş YE, Lebe F (May 1, 2015) Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma. Ege Academic Review 15 2 197–206.
IEEE Y. E. Akbaş and F. Lebe, “Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma”, ear, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 197–206, 2015.
ISNAD Akbaş, Yusuf Ekrem - Lebe, Fuat. “Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme Ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma”. Ege Academic Review 15/2 (May 2015), 197-206.
JAMA Akbaş YE, Lebe F. Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma. ear. 2015;15:197–206.
MLA Akbaş, Yusuf Ekrem and Fuat Lebe. “Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme Ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma”. Ege Academic Review, vol. 15, no. 2, 2015, pp. 197-06.
Vancouver Akbaş YE, Lebe F. Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kentleşmenin Enerji Tüketimi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Araştırma. ear. 2015;15(2):197-206.