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The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015)

Year 2017, Volume: 17 Issue: 3, 419 - 430, 01.08.2017

Abstract

In this study, the effects of economic and political uncertainties on economic growth performances of developed the G-7 and developing the BRC (Brazil, Russia, China) countries are examined econometrically in the context of the new generation panel data analysis methodology for the period 1997-2015. In the study this direction, it is empirically assessed whether economic and political uncertainties have an impact on the economic growth performances of the G7+BRC countries as predicted in the theoretical framework. As a result of the study, during the review period the effects of economic and political uncertainties on economic growth in G7 + BRC countries have been determined to be negative direction and statistically significant. These results suggest that the the economic contractions that emerged with the 2008 economic crisis in countries developed the G-7 with developing the BRC has been continued and the desired recovery has not been achieved in the process, uncertainties stemming from economic and political developments also play an important role

References

  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S. J. (2013) “Measuring
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Stanford University Working Paper. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S. J. (2015) “Measuring
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty.” National Bureau of Economic Research NBER Working Paper No: 21633.
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S. J. (2016) “Measuring
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4): 1539-1636.
  • Balta, N., Fernández, I. V. ve Ruscher, E. (2013) “Assessing the Impact of Uncertainty on Consumption and Investment”, Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 12(2): 16.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2008) Econometric Analysis of Panel
  • Data, Fourth Edition, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons. Benati, L. (2013) “Economic policy uncertainty and the great recession”, University of Bern, mimeo. Cerca con Google. http://www.policyuncertainty.com/ media/Uncertainty_Benati.pdf
  • Bhagat, S., Ghosh, P. ve Rangan, S.. P. (2013) “Economic
  • Policy Uncertainty and Economic Growth in India”, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, Working Paper No:407. Bloom, N. (2009) “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”, Econometrica, 77(3): 623-685.
  • Breitung, J. (2005) “A Parametric Approach to The Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data”,
  • Econometric Reviews, 24(2): 151-173. Breuer, J. B., Mcnown, R. ve Wallace, M. (2002) “Series‐ specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data”, Oxford
  • Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(5): 527-546. Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E. ve Figueres, J. M. (2017)
  • “Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach”, Economics Letters, 151, 31-34. Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E. ve Groshenny, N. (2014)
  • “Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics: An Analysis of Post-WWII U.S. Recessions”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, 78-92. Dotsey, M. ve Sarte, P. D. (2000) “Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 45(3): 631-655.
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, Stephen. (2009) “Cross-section
  • Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No: 17692.
  • Ermisoglu, E. ve Kanık, B. (2013) “Turkish Economic
  • Policy Uncertainty Index” Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No: 49920.
  • Ferrara, L. ve Guérin, P. (2016) “What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks”, Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper No: 2016-25.
  • Göçer, İ., Mercan, M., Hotunluoğlu, H. (2012)
  • “Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği: Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Veri Analizi”, Maliye Dergisi, 163, 470. Hadri, K. (2000) “Testing for Stationarity in
  • Heterogeneous Panels”, Econometrics Journal, 3, 148- Hadri, K. ve Kurozumi, E. (2012) “A Simple Panel
  • Stationarity Test in the Presence of Serial Correlation and a Common Factor”, Economics Letters, 115, 31-34. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003) “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
  • Istrefi, K. ve Piloiu, A. (2015) “Economic Policy
  • Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations” Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference. Paper No: 39. http://repository.cmu.edu/sem_conf/2015/ full_schedule/39 (04.28.2017)
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of
  • Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2): 231-254. Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S. C. ve Ng, S. (2015) “Measuring
  • Uncertainty”, American Economic Review, 105(3):1177
  • Kao, C. (1999) “Spurious Regression and Residual
  • Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1): 1-44. Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, C. S. J. (2002) “Unit Root
  • Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1): 1-24. Lovato, Clara (2013) “On the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic expectations in the United States”, Anno Accademico, /13
  • Menyah, K., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014)
  • “Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from a Panel Causality Approach”, Economic Modelling, , 386-394. Pedroni, P. (1999) “Critical Values for Cointegration
  • Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, (1): 653-670. Pesaran, M. H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute for Economic
  • Research, CESifo Working Paper No: 1229.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007) “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in
  • The Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2): 265-312. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008)
  • “A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross‐Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1): 105- Rossi, B. ve Sekhposyan, T. (2015) “Macroeconomic
  • Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions”, American Economic Review, (5): 650-55. Sağlam, Y., Egeli, H. A. ve Egeli, P. (2017) “Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Ar&Ge Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Veri
  • Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 25(31): 149-165. Scotti, C. (2013) “Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes:
  • Real-Time Aggregation of Real-Activity Macro Surprises”. Mimeo. Stockhammar, P. ve Österholm P. (2014) “Effects of US
  • Policy Uncertainty on Swedish GDP Growth”, National Institute of Economic Research, NIER Working Paper No: 135. Stockhammar, P. ve Österholm P. (2016) “The
  • Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies”, Open Economies Review, 1-22. Tarı, R. (2010) Ekonometri, 6. Baskı, Kocaeli, Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2013) İleri Panel Veri Analizi-Stata
  • Uygulamalı, 2. Baskı, İstanbul, Beta. Taylor, M. P. ve Sarno, L. (1998) “The Behavior of Real
  • Exchange Rates During The Post-Bretton Woods Period”, Journal of International Economics, 46(2): 281- TCKB, (2016) “Dünya Ekonomisindeki Son Gelişmeler
  • Bülteni”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Kalkınma Bakanlığı, Ekonomik Modeller ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü Küresel Ekonomik Gelişmeleri İzleme Değerlendirme Dairesi. TMB, (2016) “İnşaat Sektörü Analizi, Tünelin Girişinde
  • Dünya-Türkiye-İnşaat Sektörü”, Türkiye Müteahhitler Birliği. Westerlund, J. (2008) “Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2): 233.
  • Westerlund, J. ve Edgerton, D. L. (2007) “A Panel
  • Bootstrap Cointegration Test”, Economics Letters, (3): 185-190. Wongi, K. (2016) “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Its Implication on Economic Recovery A Case Study of Korea”, Korea Institute for International Economic
  • RGSYİH değişkeni, ilgili veri tabanından 2011 yılı fiyatlarıyla ve ABD doları (USD) olarak satın alma gücü paritesi cinsinden alınmıştır. RSSER değişkeni, ilgili veri tabanından 2010 yılı fiyatlarıyla ve ABD doları (USD) olarak temin edilmiştir. Beşeri sermayeyi nitelik boyutuyla temsil eden EE değişkeni; aktif nüfusun ilk, orta ve yükseköğretim kademelerindeki ortalama okullaşma yılı ve aynı eğitim kademelerindeki getiri oranlarına dayalı olarak kişi başına düşen değerler cinsinden hesap- lanmaktadır.
  • Çalışmada tanımlanan modellerin tahmininde Gauss 10.0 ve Stata 14.00 ekonometri paket programları kullanılmıştır.

Ekonomik ve Politik Belirsizliğin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri:G-7+BRC Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi (1997-2015)

Year 2017, Volume: 17 Issue: 3, 419 - 430, 01.08.2017

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklerin gelişmiş G-7 ve gelişmekte olan BRC (Brezilya, Rusya, Çin) ülkelerinin ekonomik büyüme performansları üzerindeki etkileri 19972015 dönemi için yeni nesil panel veri analizi metodolojisi kapsamında ekonometrik olarak incelenmektedir. Bu yönüyle çalışmada, ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklerin G7+BRC ülkelerinin ekonomik büyüme performansları üzerinde teorik çerçevede öngörüldüğü gibi bir etkiye sahip olup olmadığı ampirik açıdan değerlendirilmektedir. Çalışma sonucunda, inceleme döneminde G7+BRC ülkelerinde ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin negatif yönlü ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, gelişmiş G-7 ile gelişmekte olan BRC ülkelerinde 2008 ekonomik kriziyle birlikte ortaya çıkan ekonomik daralmaların devam etmesinde ve süreç içerisinde arzu edinilen toparlanmaların yakalanamamış olmasında, ekonomik ve politik gelişmelerden kaynaklı belirsizliklerin de önemli bir rol oynadığını düşündürmektedir

References

  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S. J. (2013) “Measuring
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Stanford University Working Paper. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S. J. (2015) “Measuring
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty.” National Bureau of Economic Research NBER Working Paper No: 21633.
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S. J. (2016) “Measuring
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4): 1539-1636.
  • Balta, N., Fernández, I. V. ve Ruscher, E. (2013) “Assessing the Impact of Uncertainty on Consumption and Investment”, Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 12(2): 16.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2008) Econometric Analysis of Panel
  • Data, Fourth Edition, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons. Benati, L. (2013) “Economic policy uncertainty and the great recession”, University of Bern, mimeo. Cerca con Google. http://www.policyuncertainty.com/ media/Uncertainty_Benati.pdf
  • Bhagat, S., Ghosh, P. ve Rangan, S.. P. (2013) “Economic
  • Policy Uncertainty and Economic Growth in India”, Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, Working Paper No:407. Bloom, N. (2009) “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”, Econometrica, 77(3): 623-685.
  • Breitung, J. (2005) “A Parametric Approach to The Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data”,
  • Econometric Reviews, 24(2): 151-173. Breuer, J. B., Mcnown, R. ve Wallace, M. (2002) “Series‐ specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data”, Oxford
  • Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(5): 527-546. Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E. ve Figueres, J. M. (2017)
  • “Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach”, Economics Letters, 151, 31-34. Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E. ve Groshenny, N. (2014)
  • “Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics: An Analysis of Post-WWII U.S. Recessions”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, 78-92. Dotsey, M. ve Sarte, P. D. (2000) “Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 45(3): 631-655.
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, Stephen. (2009) “Cross-section
  • Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No: 17692.
  • Ermisoglu, E. ve Kanık, B. (2013) “Turkish Economic
  • Policy Uncertainty Index” Munich Personal RePEc Archive, MPRA Paper No: 49920.
  • Ferrara, L. ve Guérin, P. (2016) “What are the macroeconomic effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks”, Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper No: 2016-25.
  • Göçer, İ., Mercan, M., Hotunluoğlu, H. (2012)
  • “Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde Cari İşlemler Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği: Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Veri Analizi”, Maliye Dergisi, 163, 470. Hadri, K. (2000) “Testing for Stationarity in
  • Heterogeneous Panels”, Econometrics Journal, 3, 148- Hadri, K. ve Kurozumi, E. (2012) “A Simple Panel
  • Stationarity Test in the Presence of Serial Correlation and a Common Factor”, Economics Letters, 115, 31-34. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003) “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74.
  • Istrefi, K. ve Piloiu, A. (2015) “Economic Policy
  • Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations” Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference. Paper No: 39. http://repository.cmu.edu/sem_conf/2015/ full_schedule/39 (04.28.2017)
  • Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of
  • Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2): 231-254. Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S. C. ve Ng, S. (2015) “Measuring
  • Uncertainty”, American Economic Review, 105(3):1177
  • Kao, C. (1999) “Spurious Regression and Residual
  • Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90(1): 1-44. Levin, A., Lin, C. F. ve Chu, C. S. J. (2002) “Unit Root
  • Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1): 1-24. Lovato, Clara (2013) “On the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic expectations in the United States”, Anno Accademico, /13
  • Menyah, K., Nazlıoğlu, Ş. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014)
  • “Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from a Panel Causality Approach”, Economic Modelling, , 386-394. Pedroni, P. (1999) “Critical Values for Cointegration
  • Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, (1): 653-670. Pesaran, M. H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute for Economic
  • Research, CESifo Working Paper No: 1229.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007) “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in
  • The Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2): 265-312. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008)
  • “A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross‐Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1): 105- Rossi, B. ve Sekhposyan, T. (2015) “Macroeconomic
  • Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions”, American Economic Review, (5): 650-55. Sağlam, Y., Egeli, H. A. ve Egeli, P. (2017) “Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Ar&Ge Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Veri
  • Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, 25(31): 149-165. Scotti, C. (2013) “Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes:
  • Real-Time Aggregation of Real-Activity Macro Surprises”. Mimeo. Stockhammar, P. ve Österholm P. (2014) “Effects of US
  • Policy Uncertainty on Swedish GDP Growth”, National Institute of Economic Research, NIER Working Paper No: 135. Stockhammar, P. ve Österholm P. (2016) “The
  • Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies”, Open Economies Review, 1-22. Tarı, R. (2010) Ekonometri, 6. Baskı, Kocaeli, Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2013) İleri Panel Veri Analizi-Stata
  • Uygulamalı, 2. Baskı, İstanbul, Beta. Taylor, M. P. ve Sarno, L. (1998) “The Behavior of Real
  • Exchange Rates During The Post-Bretton Woods Period”, Journal of International Economics, 46(2): 281- TCKB, (2016) “Dünya Ekonomisindeki Son Gelişmeler
  • Bülteni”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Kalkınma Bakanlığı, Ekonomik Modeller ve Stratejik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü Küresel Ekonomik Gelişmeleri İzleme Değerlendirme Dairesi. TMB, (2016) “İnşaat Sektörü Analizi, Tünelin Girişinde
  • Dünya-Türkiye-İnşaat Sektörü”, Türkiye Müteahhitler Birliği. Westerlund, J. (2008) “Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2): 233.
  • Westerlund, J. ve Edgerton, D. L. (2007) “A Panel
  • Bootstrap Cointegration Test”, Economics Letters, (3): 185-190. Wongi, K. (2016) “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Its Implication on Economic Recovery A Case Study of Korea”, Korea Institute for International Economic
  • RGSYİH değişkeni, ilgili veri tabanından 2011 yılı fiyatlarıyla ve ABD doları (USD) olarak satın alma gücü paritesi cinsinden alınmıştır. RSSER değişkeni, ilgili veri tabanından 2010 yılı fiyatlarıyla ve ABD doları (USD) olarak temin edilmiştir. Beşeri sermayeyi nitelik boyutuyla temsil eden EE değişkeni; aktif nüfusun ilk, orta ve yükseköğretim kademelerindeki ortalama okullaşma yılı ve aynı eğitim kademelerindeki getiri oranlarına dayalı olarak kişi başına düşen değerler cinsinden hesap- lanmaktadır.
  • Çalışmada tanımlanan modellerin tahmininde Gauss 10.0 ve Stata 14.00 ekonometri paket programları kullanılmıştır.
There are 53 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA92MF56JA
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ömer Yalçınkaya This is me

Halil İbrahim Aydın This is me

Publication Date August 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 17 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Yalçınkaya, Ö., & Aydın, H. İ. (2017). The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015). Ege Academic Review, 17(3), 419-430.
AMA Yalçınkaya Ö, Aydın Hİ. The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015). ear. August 2017;17(3):419-430.
Chicago Yalçınkaya, Ömer, and Halil İbrahim Aydın. “The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015)”. Ege Academic Review 17, no. 3 (August 2017): 419-30.
EndNote Yalçınkaya Ö, Aydın Hİ (August 1, 2017) The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015). Ege Academic Review 17 3 419–430.
IEEE Ö. Yalçınkaya and H. İ. Aydın, “The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015)”, ear, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 419–430, 2017.
ISNAD Yalçınkaya, Ömer - Aydın, Halil İbrahim. “The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015)”. Ege Academic Review 17/3 (August 2017), 419-430.
JAMA Yalçınkaya Ö, Aydın Hİ. The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015). ear. 2017;17:419–430.
MLA Yalçınkaya, Ömer and Halil İbrahim Aydın. “The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015)”. Ege Academic Review, vol. 17, no. 3, 2017, pp. 419-30.
Vancouver Yalçınkaya Ö, Aydın Hİ. The Effects of Economic and Political Uncertainty on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis on The G-7+BRC Countries (1997-2015). ear. 2017;17(3):419-30.