Does Income Converge in Turkey? an Empirical Assessment

Year 2019, Volume: 19 Issue: 1, 15 - 32, 01.01.2019

Dilek Durusu-çiftçi Şaban Nazlıoğlu

Abstract

Turkey has recorded high growth rates during last two
decades that have led to a structural change in the income level of the provinces.
This shift arises to the question of whether the regional disparities in Turkey
converge or diverge. The growth performance of Turkey has also led to change
the structure of the economy which results in the move from rural areas to
urban areas. The empirical examination of the income convergence in Turkey
thereby seems to be timely and important in order to provide insights for
analyzing the causes and consequences of regional disparities and connecting a
link between economic growth and urbanization. We collect the per capita income
data of 73 provinces during the period 1992- 2013 and estimate different
econometric models by controlling for structural changes in the income. The
results overall provide an evidence on the income divergence between the east
and west of Turkey. We discuss why Turkish urbanization which is in tandem with
economic development process is not a stand-alone for the convergence and
discover that the region-specific structural characteristics (the geographical
conditions, the terrorist incidents, the regional investment policies, and the
horizontal imbalances) seem to be still prevailing.

Keywords

Income convergence, Turkey, Structural shifts, Econometric modelling

Türkiye’de Gelir Yakınsıyor mu? Ampirik Bir Değerlendirme

Abstract

Türkiye’de, son yirmi yılda illerin gelir düzeyinde yapısal
bir değişime neden olan yüksek büyüme oranları gerçekleşmiştir. Bu değişim,
Türkiye’deki bölgesel farklılıkların yakınsayıp yakınsamadığı sorusunu ortaya
çıkarmıştır. Türkiye’nin büyüme performansı, kırsal alanlardan kentsel alanlara
geçişle sonuçlanan ekonomik yapının değişmesine neden olmuştur. Dolayısıyla,
bölgesel farklılıkların nedenlerini ve sonuçlarını analiz etmek ve ekonomik
büyüme ile kentleşme arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığını ortaya koymak
amacıyla, Türkiye’deki gelir yakınsamasının ampirik incelemesi zamanında ve
önemli gözükmektedir. Çalışmada, 1992-2013 döneminde 73 ilin kişi başına düşen
gelir verileri kullanılarak ve gelirdeki yapısal değişiklikler dikkate alınarak
farklı ekonometrik modeller tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, genel olarak,
Türkiye’nin doğusu ve batısı arasında illerin gelirlerinde yakınsama olmadığına
işaret etmektedir. Ekonomik kalkınma süreciyle birlikte gerçekleşen
kentleşmenin neden yakınsama için tek başına yeterli olmadığı tartışılmış ve
bölgeye özgü yapısal özelliklerin (coğrafi koşullar, terörist olaylar, bölgesel
yatırım politikaları ve yatay dengesizlikler) hâlâ büyük ölçüde etkili olduğu
tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Gelir yakınsaması, Türkiye, Yapısal kırılmalar, Ekonometrik modelleme

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