Analysis of Variables Affecting Municipal Borrowing with Quantile Regression in Turkey

Year 2022, Volume: 22 Issue: 2, 139 - 154, 28.04.2022

Halil Serbes , Mine Aydemir , Özhan Çetinkaya , Nuran Bayram Arlı

https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.857078

Abstract

The present study aimed to determine the variables that affect municipal borrowing in Turkey and analyze them using the quantile regression. In this analysis, municipal debt was analyzed for five quantiles (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th ve 90th), and it was observed that various variables explained the debt in different quantiles. Some variables are significant in all quantiles and could explain the municipal debt, while certain variables were not significant in various quantiles. The findings show that per capita budget expenditure has a significant and positively correlated per capita municipal debt in all five quantiles; expenditure commitment rate in four, and non-interest fiscal capacity rate in the first two quantiles. Per capita tax revenue variable was also significant and negatively correlated with per capita municipal debt in all five borrowing groups. However, population and per capita capital expenditure variables were found insignificant in almost five quantiles. The present study demonstrated that the proposals and policies developed on the municipal debt could have different determinants for municipalities with varying levels of debt.

Keywords

Municipality, Borrowing, Fiscal Determinants, Quantile Regression, Turkey

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