THE FACTORS CAUSING CONSUMER BEHAVIOR: ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR EU COUNTRIES THROUGH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

Year 2025, Volume: 25 Issue: 1, 21 - 42

Özgür Engeloğlu , Funda Yurdakul

https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.20250102

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to determine the factors affecting consumer behavior for 27 European Union (EU) countries and to analyze which country consumers have similar behavior patterns. The dataset covers the period from 2012M01 to 2019M12. First, we used asymmetric causality tests to examine the relationships between consumer confidence index and the variables that influence it. Asymmetric causality tests consider the effect of asymmetric information, assuming that the response of units to positive and negative shocks may differ. In this way, it may occur some confidential information that cannot be detected in symmetric tests, through the asymmetric tests. Second, we applied the cluster analysis to outputs of asymmetric causality tests. We found that the indicator that has the most impact on consumer confidence index is stock market indices. Also, unemployment rate, consumer price index, and election periods are influencing consumer confidence index significantly. As a result of the cluster analysis, we detected the existence of five different country groups. Some of these groups included countries with similar geographical conditions and similar cultures.

Keywords

Consumer Confidence Index, Economic Indicators, Asymmetrical Causality Analysis, Cluster Analysis, EU Counties

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