Factors Driving the Export of Information and Communications Technology Products in Emerging Industrial Economies

Öz

This paper provides new evidence for the determinants of the export performance in the information and communications technology (ICT) sectors using a panel dataset of 30 emerging industrial economies (EIEs) for a 15-year period spanning from 2000 to 2014. The export performance is proxied by the export share of the ICT products in total export while its potential determinants are the imports of the ICT products (learning effect), index of product concentration in export (specialization effect), inward foreign direct investment stock (exogenous technology transfer and diffusion effects), consumer price index (stability effect), real gross domestic product per capita (income effect), real effective exchange rate (terms of trade effect) and research and development expenditures (indigenous innovation effect). In the empirical part, cross-section fixed effects least square and, in order to control for endogeneity concern, system generalized method of moments techniques are carried out respectively in an unbalanced panel data framework. In general, the results are consistent with the theoretical expectations and evidence of previous studies. Imports of the ICT products, inward foreign direct investment stock and research and development expenditures are positively associated with the export performance in ICT sectors while the product concentration, price level and real effective exchange rates have negative impacts. Furthermore, even the positive impact of GDP per capita is not statistically significant, it might be seen as supporting the predictions, suggesting that knowledge and innovation intensive ICT products are made in and exported by high-income countries, thereby opposing the conventional wisdom of convergence and catch-up hypotheses. On the other hand, the overall results underscore the importance and necessity of the potential of new trade theories for explaining the ever-changing trade pattern

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export upgrading, ICT products, Emerging industrial economies, Panel data analysis

Yükselen Sanayi Ekonomilerinde Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri Ürünleri İhracatının Belirleyici Faktörleri

Öz

Bu çalışma, 30 yükselen sanayi ekonomisinin (YSE) 2000-2014 dönemini kapsayan 15- yıllık panel veri setlerini kullanarak, bilgi ve iletişim teknolojileri (BİT) sektörlerindeki ihracat performansının belirleyicilerine ilişkin yeni bulgular ortaya koymaktadır. İhracat performansı BİT ürünleri ihracatının toplam ihracat içindeki payı ile temsil edilirken, ihracat performansını etkilemesi beklenen faktörler ise BİT ürünleri ithalatı (öğrenme etkisi), ihracatta ürün yoğunlaşma endeksi (uzmanlaşma etkisi), yurtiçindeki doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları stoku (dışsal teknoloji transferi ve yayılma etkisi), tüketici fiyat endeksi (istikrar etkisi), kişi başına reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (gelir etkisi), reel döviz kuru (ticaret hadleri etkisi) ve araştırma ve geliştirme harcamaları (içsel yenilik etkisi) olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik kısmında, dengesiz panel veri yapısı altında sırasıyla yatay-kesit sabit etkiler en küçük kareler yöntemi ve içsellik durumunu kontrol etmek için, sistem genelleştirilmiş momentler metodu tahmin prosedürleri izlenmiştir. Ulaşılan sonuçlar, genel olarak, teorik beklentiler ve önceki çalışmaların sonuçları ile uyumludur: BİT ürünleri ithalatı ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye stoku ile araştırma ve geliştirme harcamaları değişkenlerinin BİT sektörlerindeki ihracat performansı ile pozitif ilişkili, ancak ürün yoğunlaşmasının, fiyat düzeyinin ve reel efektif döviz kurunun negatif etkilerinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, gelir etkisinin istatistiki olarak anlamsız olması, bilgi ve yenilik yoğun BİT ürünlerinin yüksek gelirli ülkelerde üretileceği ve onlar tarafından ihraç edileceğini savunan statik karşılaştırmalı üstünlüklere dayalı yaklaşımları destekler gibi gürünse de geleneksel yakınsama ve yetişme hipotezlerine uymamaktadır. Genel bulgular, diğer taraftan, sürekli değişen ticaret yapılarını açıklamaya yönelik potansiyel yeni ticaret teorilerinin önemini ve gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat geliştirme, BİT ürünleri, Yükselen sanayi ekonomileri, Panel veri analizi

Kaynakça

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