İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNE BAĞLI ÇEVRESEL BOZULMANIN GÖÇ KARARINA ETKİSİ: GENEL BİR BAKIŞ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 2, 383 - 403, 27.12.2021

Nazan An , Mustafa Tufan Turp , Levent Kurnaz

https://doi.org/10.51800/ecd.932879

Cited By: 4

Öz

Gelişmiş ülkelerde son 30 yıldaki nüfus artışının ana kaynağını göç oluşturmaktadır. Görünen o ki son yıllarda iklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu çevresel bozulma ile ortaya çıkan iklim mültecisi sorunu, çağımızın en önemli insani krizlerinden biri olma yolundadır. Bununla birlikte, “çevresel mülteci” ve “iklim mültecisi” konularında uluslararası kavramsal ve yasal belirsizlikler, politika eksiklikleri, buna bağlı ülkelerin veri izlemede ve kaydetmede yaşadıkları zorluklar bu alandaki araştırmaları sınırlayan en önemli sorunlardan biridir. Bir başka ifadeyle çevresel mülteci kavramının kabul edilmesi, “çevresel mülteci” ve “iklim mültecisi” kavramlarının netlik kazanması, çok sayıda insanın zorunlu göçünün sorumluluğunu üstlenmek anlamına gelebileceğinden çok yönlü endişeleri de beraberinde getirmektedir. Çevresel göç konusunda yaygın iki görüşten biri göç kararı almada iklim değişikliği riskleriyle yüzleşmenin yeterli olduğu, diğeri ise iklim değişikliği kaynaklı kısa ya da uzun dönemli aşırı hava olaylarının tetiklediği afetlerin tek başına yeterli olamayacağı; bunun yanı sıra bireylerin ya da ailelerin yaşam alanlarını terk etmelerinde gelenekleri, çevresel etkileşimleri, aile yapıları, kültürel özellikleri ve demografik yapıları gibi birtakım bağlayıcı faktörlerin bulunduğu yönündedir. Bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğine bağlı kısa ya da uzun dönemli aşırı hava olaylarının etkisiyle oluşan çevresel bozulmaların birey ve toplumların yaşamları üzerindeki etkilere dayalı farklılaşan tutumlarını değerlendirerek çevresel göç kavramını birçok yönüyle ele almakta, literatürdeki farklı görüş ve bakış açılarına yer vermektedir. Buna göre, iklim değişikliği kaynaklı göçün genel olarak tüm dünyayı etkileyeceği, ancak sosyoekonomik faktörlere bağlı bu etkinin daha az ya da daha çok olacağı sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu kapsamda yeterli ekonomik güce, başarılı uyum politikalarına ve siyasi istikrara sahip olan ülkeler iklim değişikliği risklerinden daha az etkilendiği için insan hareketliliği bu ülkelerde daha az olmakta, tam tersi durumda ise sosyoekonomik stresteki artışa bağlı insan hareketliliği potansiyeli artmaktadır. Diğer taraftan uluslararası hukukta çevresel mülteci kavramı belirsizliği ve yasal koruma statü eksikliği gelecekte özellikle insan hakları açısından kararların sorgulanmasına ve ülkeler arası birçok hukuksal anlaşmazlığa sebep olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Göç, çevresel bozulma ve göç, iklim değişikliği ve göç, çevresel mülteci, iklim mültecisi

The Effect of Environmental Degradation Due to Climate Change on Migration Decision: A General Overview

Öz

Migration has been the main source of population growth in developed countries in the last three decades. It seems that the problem of climate refugees, which has emerged with the environmental degradation caused by climate change in recent years, is on the way to become one of the pivotal humanitarian crises of our age. On the other hand, international conceptual and legal uncertainties, policy deficiencies, and the difficulties faced by countries in monitoring and collecting data on "environmental refugee" and "climate refugee" are one of the most crucial problems limiting research in this field. In other words, accepting the concept of environmental refugee and the clarification of the concepts of "environmental refugee" and "climate refugee" bring along multifaceted concerns as it may mean taking responsibility for the forced migration of large numbers of people. One of the two common views on environmental migration is that it is sufficient to face the risks of climate change in making a migration decision. Another view is that disasters triggered by short-term or long-term extreme weather events arising from climate change will not be sufficient alone. In addition to this, there are some binding factors such as traditions, environmental interactions, family structures, cultural characteristics, and demographic structures in individuals or families leaving their living spaces. This study addresses the concept of environmental migration in many ways by examining the diversifying attitudes of individuals and societies based on the effects of environmental degradation due to the impacts of short-term or long-term extreme weather events stemming from climate change on their lives and it also includes different views and perspectives in the literature. Accordingly, it has been concluded that migration due to climate change will affect the whole world in general, but this effect will be less or more depending on socioeconomic factors. In this context, since countries with sufficient economic power, successful adaptation policies and political stability are less affected by climate change risks, human mobility is less in those countries, and on the contrary, human mobility potential increases due to the increase in socioeconomic stress. On the other hand, the ambiguity of the environmental refugee concept in international law and the lack of legal protection status will lead to the questioning of decisions in the future, especially in terms of human rights, and many legal disputes between countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Migration, environmental degradation and migration, climate change and migration, environmental refugee, climate refugee

Kaynakça

• Adger, W.N., Pulhin, J.M., Barnett, J., Dabelko, G.D., Hovelsrud, G.K., Levy, M., Oswald Spring, Ú., Vogel, C.H. 2014. Human Security. In Field C.B., Barros V.R., Dokken D.J., Mach K.J., Mastrandrea M.D., Bilir T.E., … White L.L. (Eds.) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• Afifi, T., Warner, K. 2008. The Impact of Environmental Degradation on Migration Flows Across Countries. The United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security Working Paper No. 5, Bonn.
• Ahmed, B. 2018. Who takes responsibility for the climate refugees? International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 10(1), 5-26.
• Andeva, M., Salevska-Trajkova, V. 2020. Climate refugees or climate migrants: How environment challenges the international migration law and policies. AICEI Proceedings, 78-87, University American College Skopje, Skopje.
• Apap, J. 2019. The Concept of ‘Climate Refugee’: Towards a Possible Definition. European Parliamentary Research Service, Brussels.
• Berchin, I.I., Valduga, I.B., Garcia, J., de Andrade, J.B.S.O. 2017. Climate change and forced migrations: An effort towards recognizing climate refugees. Geoforum, 84, 147-150.
• Biermann, F., Boas, I. 2008. Protecting climate refugees: The case for a global protocol. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 50(6), 8-17.
• Biermann, F., Boas, I. 2010. Preparing for a warmer world: Towards a global governance system to protect climate refugees. Global Environmental Politics, 10(1), 60-88.
• Black, R. 1998. Refugees, Environment and Development. Addison Wesley Longman Limited, Harlow.
• Black, R. 2001. Environmental Refugees: Myth or Reality? The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Working Paper No. 34, Geneva.
• Black, R., Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., Thomas, D. 2011. The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change, 21(S1), S3-S11.
• Black, R., Kniveton, D., Skeldon, R., Coppard, D., Murata, A., Schmidt-Verkerk, K. 2008. Demographics and Climate Change: Future Trends and Their Policy Implications for Migration. The Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty Working Paper No. T-27, Brighton.
• BNN. 2020. UN: Illegal for Countries to Send Back Climate Refugees, https://bnn-news.com/un-illegal-for-countries-to-send-back-climate-refugees-209590.
• Brown, L. 2011. World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse. Routledge, London.
• Brown, L.R., McGrath, P.L., Stokes, B. 1976. Twenty-Two Dimensions of the Population Problem. The Worldwatch Institute Paper 5, Washington DC.
• Burkett, M. 2012. Climate Refugees. In Alam S., Bhuiyan J.H., Chowdhury T.M.R., Techera E.J. (Eds.) Routledge Handbook of International Environmental Law. Routledge, New York.
• Cairns Jr., J. 2002. Environmental refugees. The Social Contract, 13(1), 34-44.
• Castles, S., 2000. Migration as a factor in social transformation in East Asia. Proceedings of the Conference on Migration and Development, Princeton University, New Jersey.
• Christian Aid. 2007. Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis. Christian Aid Report, London.
• Curtain, R., Dornan, M. 2019. A Pressure Release Valve? Migration and Climate Change in Kiribati, Nauru and Tuvalu. The Development Policy Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University College of Asia & the Pacific, The Australian Capital Territory.
• de Haan, A. 2000. Migrants, Livelihoods, and Rights: The Relevance of Migration in Development Policies. Social Development Working Paper No. 4, Department for International Development, London.
• Dell, M., Jones, B.F., Olken, B.A. 2008. Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 14132, Massachusetts.
• Diffenbaugh, N.S., Giorgi, F. 2012. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble. Climatic Change, 114(3), 813-822.
• Dillon, A., Mueller, V., Salau, S. 2011. Migratory responses to agricultural risk in northern Nigeria. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93, 1048-1061.
• EJF. 2009. No Place Like Home: Where Next for Climate Refugees? Environmental Justice Foundation, London.
• Eckstein, D., Künzel, V., Schäfer, L. 2021. Global Climate Risk Index 2021: Who Suffers Most From Extreme Weather Events? Weather-Related Loss Events in 2019 and 2000-2019. Germanwatch, Bonn.
• El-Hinnawi, E. 1985. Environmental Refugees. The United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi.
• Erdoğan, M. 2020. Onuncu Yılında Türkiye’deki Suriyeliler, https://www.uikpanorama.com/blog/2020/04/29/onuncu-yilinda-turkiyedeki-suriyeliler/.
• Ezra, M., Kiros, G.-E. 2001. Rural out-migration in the drought prone areas of Ethiopia: A multilevel analysis. International Migration Review, 35(3), 749-771.
• FAO. 2020. As More Go Hungry and Malnutrition Persists, Achieving Zero Hunger by 2030 in Doubt, UN Report Warns, http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1297810/icode.
• Findlay, A.M. 2011. Migrant destinations in an era of environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 21, S50-S58.
• Findley, S.E. 1994. Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983-1985 drought. International Migration Review, 28(3), 539-553.
• Gemenne, F. 2011. Why the numbers don’t add up: A review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes. Global Environmental Change, 21, S41-S49.
• GİGM, t.y. Düzensiz Göç, https://www.goc.gov.tr/duzensiz-goc-istatistikler.
• Giorgi, F., Lionello, P. 2008. Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global and Planetary Change, 63(2-3), 90-104.
• Gray, C.L. 2009. Environment, land, and rural out-migration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Development, 37(2), 457-468.
• Gray, C.L. 2010. Gender, natural capital, and migration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 42(3), 678-696.
• Gray, C., Bilsborrow, R. 2013. Environmental influences on human migration in rural Ecuador. Demography, 50(4), 1217-1241.
• Gray, C., Mueller, V. 2012a. Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Development, 40(1), 134-145.
• Gray, C.L, Mueller, V. 2012b. Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(16), 6000-6005.
• Gutmann, M.P., Deane, G.D., Lauster, N., Peri, A. 2005. Two population-environment regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930-1990. Population and Environment, 27(2), 191-225.
• Halliday, T. 2006. Migration, risk, and liquidity constraints in El Salvador. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 54(4), 893-925.
• Hampshire, K. 2002. Fulani on the move: Seasonal economic migration in the Sahel as a social process. Journal of Development Studies, 38(5), 15-36.
• Hampshire, K., Randall, S. 1999. Seasonal labour migration strategies in the Sahel: Coping with poverty or optimising security? International Journal of Population Geography, 5(5), 367-385.
• Henry, S., Schoumaker, B., Beauchemin, C. 2004. The impact of rainfall on the first out-migration: A multi-level event-history analysis in Burkina Faso. Population and Environment, 25(5), 423-460.
• Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jacob, D., Taylor, M., Bindi, M., Brown, M.S., Camilloni, I., … Zhou, G. 2018. Impacts of 1.5 °C of Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. In Masson-Delmotte V., Zhai P., Pörtner H.-O., Roberts D., Skea J., Shukla P.R., … Waterfield T. (Eds.) Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C. In press.
• Hugo, G. 1996. Environmental concerns and international migration. The International Migration Review, 30(1), 105-131.
• Hugo, G. 2011. Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate change. Global Environmental Change, 21(S1), S21-S33.
• Hunger Notes. 2016. Women and Hunger Facts, https://www.worldhunger.org/women-and-hunger-facts/.
• IDMC. 2021. Global Report on Intermal Displacement (GRID) 2021. Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), Geneva.
• IPCC. 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA.
• IPCC. 2014a. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• IPCC. 2014b. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
• IPCC. 2014c. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA.
• Jacobson, J.L. 1988. Environmental refugees: A yardstick of habitability. Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, 8(3), 257-258.
• Jaswal, P.S., Jolly, S. 2013. Climate refugees: Challenges and opportunities for international law. Journal of the Indian Law Institute, 55(1), 45-58.
• Kadirbeyoglu, Z. 2010. In the land of ostriches: Developmentalism, environmental degradation, and forced migration in Turkey. In Afifi T., Jäger J. (Eds.) Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
• Kam, P.M., Aznar-Siguan, G., Schewe, J., Milano, L., Ginnetti, J., Willner, S., McCaughey, J.W., Bresch, D.N. 2021. Global warming and population change both heighten future risk of human displacement due to river floods. Environmental Research Letters, 16(4), 044026.
• Kent, A., Behrman, S. 2020. Climate-induced migration: Will tribunals save the day? Hong Kong Journal of Law and Public Affairs, 2(2), 1-10.
• Kibreab, G. 1997. Environmental causes and impact of refugee movements: A critique of the current debate. Disasters, 21(1), 20-38.
• Kjellstrom, T., McMichael, A.J. 2013. Climate change threats to population health and well-being: The imperative of protective solutions that will last. Global Health Action, 6(1), 20816.
• Kniveton, D., Schmidt-Verkerk, K., Smith, C., Black, R. 2008. Climate Change and Migration: Improving Methodologies to Estimate Flows. International Organization for Migration, Geneva.
• Lilleør, H.B., Van den Broeck, K. 2011. Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs. Global Environmental Change, 21(S1), S70-S81.
• Massey, D.S., Fischer, M.J., Capoferro, C. 2006. International migration and gender in Latin America: A comparative analysis. International Migration, 44(5), 63-91.
• McKee, M., Keulertz, M., Habibi, N., Mulligan, M., Woertz, E. 2017. Demographic and Economic Material Factors in the MENA Region. Middle East and North Africa Regional Architecture: Mapping Geopolitical Shifts, Regional Order and Domestic Transformations Working Papers No. 3.
• McDonald, T. 2015. The Man Who Would Be the First Climate Change Refugee, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34674374.
• McGranahan, G., Balk, D., Anderson, B. 2007. The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and Urbanization, 19(1), 17-37.
• McGregor, J. 1993. Refugees and the Environment. In Black R., Robinson V. (Eds.) Geography and Refugees: Patterns and Processes of Change. Belhaven Press, London.
• McLeman, R., Smit, B. 2006. Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53.
• McNamara, K.E. 2007. Conceptualizing discourses on environmental refugees at the United Nations. Population and Environment, 29(1), 12-24.
• Mirzabaev, A., Wu, J., Evans, J., García-Oliva, F., Hussein, I.A.G., Iqbal, M.H., … Weltz, M. 2019. Desertification. In Shukla P.R., Skea J., Calvo Buendia E., Masson-Delmotte V., Pörtner H.-O., Roberts D.C., … Malley J. (Eds.) Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems. In press.
• Morrissey, J. 2012. Rethinking the ‘debate on environmental refugees’: from ‘maximilists and minimalists’ to ‘proponents and critics’. Journal of Political Ecology, 19(1), 36-49.
• Mortreux, C., Barnett, J. 2009. Climate change, migration and adaptation in Funafuti, Tuvalu. Global Environmental Change, 19(1), 105-112.
• Munshi, K. 2003. Networks in the modern economy: Mexican migrants in the U.S. labor market. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(2), 549-599.
• Myers, N. 1993. Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world. BioScience, 43(11), 752-761.
• Myers, N. 1997. Environmental refugees. Population and Environment, 19(2), 167-182.
• Myers, N. 2002. Environmental refugees: A growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences, 357(1420), 609-613.
• Myers, N., 2005. Environmental Refugees: An Emergent Security Issue. Paper for Session III - Environment and Migration - of the 13th Economic Forum, Prague.
• Myers, N., Kent, J. 1995. Environmental Exodus: An Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena. The Climate Institute, Washington, DC.
• Nett, K., Rüttinger, L. 2016. Insurgency, Terrorism and Organised Crime in a Warming Climate: Analysing the Links Between Climate Change and Non-State Armed Groups. Climate Diplomacy, Berlin.
• Neumayer, E., Plümper, T. 2007. The gendered nature of natural disasters: The impact of catastrophic events on the gender gap in life expectancy, 1981-2002. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 97(3), 551-566.
• Osóbka, P. 2021. Climate change and the convention relating to the status of refugees of 28 July 1951. Polish Review of International and European Law, 10(1), 103.
• Oxfam International. 2005. The Tsunami’s Impact on Women. Oxfam International Briefing Note, Oxford.
• Ozturk, T., Ceber, Z.P., Türkeş, M., Kurnaz, M.L. 2015. Projections of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin by using downscaled global climate model outputs. International Journal of Climatology, 35(14), 4276-4292.
• Piguet, E. 2013. From “primitive migration” to “climate refugees”: The curious fate of the natural environment in migration studies. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 103(1), 148-162.
• Richter, S., Taylor, J.E. 2007. Gender and the Determinants of International Migration From Rural Mexico Over Time. In Morrison, A., Schiff, M., Sjöblom, M. (Eds.) The International Migration of Women. The World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan, Washington, DC.
• Rigaud, K.K., de Sherbinin, A., Jones, B., Bergmann, J., Clement, V., Ober, K., … Midgley, A. 2018. Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
• Rüegg, P. 2021. Climate Change Significantly Increases Population Displacement Risk, https://ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/eth-news/news/2021/03/increased-population-displacement-risk.html.
• Saunders, P. L. 2000. Environmental Refugees: The Origins of a Construct. In Stott P., Sullivan S. (Eds.) Political Ecology: Science, Myth and Power. Arnold, London.
• Satterthwaite, D., Huq, S., Reid, H., Pelling, M., Lankao, P.R. 2007. Adapting to Climate Change in Urban Areas: The Possibilities and Constraints in Low and Middle Income Nations. International Institute for Environment and Development, Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series, London.
• Selby, J., Dahi, O.S., Fröhlich, C., Hulme, M. 2017. Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited. Political Geography, 60, 232-244.
• Selvaraju, R. 2013. Implications of Climate Change for Agriculture and Food Security in the Western Asia and Northern Africa Region. In Sivakumar, M.V.K., Lal, R., Selvaraju, R., Hamdan, I. (Eds.) Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa. Springer, Dordrecht.
• Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M., Perrette, M., Reinhardt, J. 2017. Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6), 1585-1600.
• Skeldon, R. 2002. Migration and poverty. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, 17(4), 67-82.
• Sofuoğlu, E., Ay, A. 2020. The relationship between climate change and political instability: The case of MENA countries (1985:01–2016:12). Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 14033-14043.
• Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., Bucchignani, E., Cassano, J., Cavazos, T., Christensen, J.H., … Dosio, A. 2020. Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data. Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3635-3661.
• Suhrke, A. 1994. Environmental degradation and population flows. Journal of International Affairs, 47(2), 473-496.
• Şen, Ö.L. 2013. IPCC’nin Son Raporu Işığında Türkiye’de İklim Değişikliği, Olası Etkileri ve Çözüm Önerileri. İklim Değişikliğinde Son Gelişmeler: IPCC 2013 Raporu içinde, s. 19-23, Sabancı Üniversitesi İstanbul Politikalar Merkezi (İPM), İstanbul.
• Tacoli, C. 2011. Not Only Climate Change: Mobility, Vulnerability and Socio-Economic Transformations in Environmentally Fragile Areas in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania. International Institute for Environment and Development, Human Settlements Working Paper Series, London.
• The Supreme Court of New Zealand, 2015. Judgment of the Court, http://climatecasechart.com/climate-change-litigation/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/non-us-case-documents/2015/20150720_2015-NZSC-107_judgment-1.pdf.
• Turkes, M., Turp, M.T., An, N., Ozturk, T., Kurnaz, M.L. 2020. Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation Climatology and Variability in Turkey. In Hamamcioglu N., Altinbilek D. (Eds.) Water Resources of Turkey. Springer, Cham.
• Turp, M.T., Öztürk, T., Türkeş, M., Kurnaz, M.L. 2014. RegCM4. 3.5 bölgesel iklim modelini kullanarak Türkiye ve çevresi bölgelerin yakın gelecekteki hava sıcaklığı ve yağış klimatolojileri için öngörülen değişikliklerin incelenmesi. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 23(1), 1-24.
• TÜİK, 2020. Uluslararası Göç İstatistikleri, 2019, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Uluslararasi-Goc-Istatistikleri-2019-33709.
• Türkeş, M. 1999. Vulnerability of Turkey to desertification with respect to precipitation and aridity conditions. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 23(5), 363-380.
• Türkeş, M. 2010. Klimatoloji ve Meteoroloji. Kriter Yayınevi, İstanbul.
• Türkeş, M. 2012. Küresel İklim Değişikliği ve Çölleşme. Günümüz Dünya Sorunları – Disilpinlerarası Bir Yaklaşım. (Ed. Özgen N.) içinde, s. 1-42, Eğiten Kitap, Ankara.
• Türkeş, M. 2013a. IPCC İklim Değişikliği 2013: Fiziksel Bilim Temeli Politikacılar İçin Özet Raporundaki Yeni Bulgu ve Sonuçların Bilimsel Bir Değerlendirmesi. İklim Değişikliğinde Son Gelişmeler: IPCC 2013 Raporu içinde, s. 8-18, Sabancı Üniversitesi İstanbul Politikalar Merkezi (İPM), İstanbul.
• Türkeş, M. 2013b. İklim Verileri Kullanılarak Türkiye’nin Çölleşme Haritası Dokümanı Hazırlanması Raporu. T.C. Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı, Çölleşme ve Erozyonla Mücadele Genel Müdürlüğü Yayını, Ankara.
• Türkeş, M. 2017. Türkiye’nin iklimsel değişkenlik ve sosyo-ekolojik göstergeler açısından kuraklıktan etkilenebilirlik ve risk çözümlemesi. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 26(2), 47-70.
• Türkeş, M. 2020. İklim değişikliğinin tarımsal üretim ve gıda güvenliğine etkileri: Bilimsel bir değerlendirme. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 29(1), 125-149.
• Türkeş, M. 2021. Türkiye’nin su iklimi, iklim değişikliği ve 2019-2020 kuraklığı. EKOIQ, 92, 90-97.
• Türkeş, M., Öztaş, T., Tercan, E., Erpul, G., Karagöz, A., Dengiz, O., Doğan, O., Şahin, K., Avcıoğlu, B. 2020. Desertification vulnerability and risk assessment for Turkey via an analytical hierarchy process model. Land Degradation & Development, 31(2), 205-214.
• Türkeş, M., Tatlı, H. 2009. Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and a modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 29(15), 2270-2282.
• UN. 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York.
• UN. 2017a. Population Facts: Migration and Population Change - Drivers and Impacts. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, New York.
• UN. 2017b. International Migration Report 2017: Highlights. United Nations, New York.
• UN. 2019. International Migration 2019 Report. United Nations, New York.
• Ülker, D., Ergüven, O., Gazioğlu, C. 2018. Socio-economic impacts in a changing climate: Case study Syria. International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics, 5(1), 84-93.
• Verner, D. (Ed.) 2012. Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries: A Case for Adaptation Governance and Leadership in Building Climate Resilience. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
• Waha, K., Krummenauer, L., Adams, S., Aich, V., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., … Schleussner, C.-F. 2017. Climate change impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region and their implications for vulnerable population groups. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6), 1623–1638.
• Warner, K., Ehrhart, C., de Sherbinin, A., Adamo, S., Chai-Onn, T. 2009. In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement. Cooperative for Assistance and Relief Everywhere, Inc., Geneva.
• Williams, A. 2008. Turning the tide: Recognizing climate change refugees in international law. Law & Policy, 30(4), 502-529.
• World Bank. 2018. Access to Electricity (% of Population), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS.
• Young, R., Pilkey, O. 2010. How High Will Seas Rise? Get Ready for Seven Feet, https://e360.yale.edu/features/how_high_will_seas_rise_get_ready_for_seven_feet.