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Türkiye Elektrik Şebekesinde Güneş Kurulu Gücünün Artırılmasında Öncelikli Stratejilerin Bir Bulanık Analitik Ağ Proses Yaklaşımı ile Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 3, 1309 - 1322, 30.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.31202/ecjse.917498

Abstract

Artan tüketim, elektrik üretim maliyetleri, ekonomik ve çevresel kaygılar nedeniyle, ülkeler günümüzde elektrik üretimlerini fosil yakıtlar yerine yenilenebilir enerji ile karşılamaya çabalamaktadır. Elektrik şebekelerinde yenilenebilir gücün payının artırılmasında, üretim maliyetlerindeki düşüş ve potansiyeli ile fotovoltaik (FV) paneller itici bir güç haline gelmiştir. Ülkelerin uzun dönemli enerji planlamaları içerisinde bütün yenilenebilir kaynakların ayrı ayrı gelişim stratejilerinin belirlenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Ancak, karar vericiler tarafından sağlanan karar bilgileri, genellikle zaman sınırı, dış etkenler ve veri eksikliğinden dolayı belirsizdir. Hedeflerin ve kısıtlamaların doğası gereği belirsiz olduğu bu gibi durumlarda bulanık bir karar sürecinin oluşturulması doğru bir planlama süreci için oldukça kritiktir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye elektrik şebekesindeki güneş kurulu kapasitesini artırmak için Güçlü Yönler, Zayıf Yönler, Fırsatlar ve Tehditler (GZFT) belirlenir ve yedi farklı alternatif strateji ortaya konulur. GZFT faktörlerinin ve tüm alt faktörlerin ağırlıkları, Bulanık Analitik Ağ Süreci (BAAS) yaklaşımı kullanılarak belirlenir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Türkiye'de özel konut ve kamu binaları elektrik üretiminde etkin bir şekilde kullanılmamaktadır. Ve bu alanlar için bazı teknik ve özel düzenlemelere öncelik verilmelidir.

References

  • International Energy Agency (IEA), Key world energy statistics 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2020.
  • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2021, https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/March/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2021.
  • Türkiye Elektrik İletim A.Ş. (TEIAS), Ocak 2021 Kurulu Güç Raporu, https://www.teias.gov.tr/tr-TR/kurulu-guc-raporlari.
  • Pohekar, S.D., Ramachandran M., Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning—a review, Renewable Sustainable Energy Reviews 2004, 8, 365–81.
  • Chen, W.M., Kim H., Yamaguchi H., “Renewable energy in eastern Asia: renewable energy policy review and comparative SWOT analysis for promoting renewable energy in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan”, Energy Policy 2014, 74, 319-29.
  • Erdogmuş, S., Aras H., Koc E., “Evaluation of alternative fuels for residential heating in Turkey using analytic network process (ANP) with group decision-making”, Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2006;10:269-79.
  • Ak, M.F., “Tedarikçi Seçiminde Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Metodolojisi Tabanlı Yeni Bir Model” El-Cezerî Journal of Science and Engineering, 2020, 7(2); 410-423.
  • Apak, M., Ergün, M., Özen, H., Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHS) ile Tehlikeli Yol Kenarı Tesislerine Araç Çarpma Risklerine Karşı Bir Duyarlılık Analizi, El-Cezeri Journal of Science and Engineering, 2019, 6(3), 836-846.
  • Yuan, J., Li, X., Xu, C., Zhao, C., Liu, Y., “Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method”, Energy 2019, 176, 623-640.
  • Azimi, R., Yazdani-Chamzini, A., Fouladgar, M.M. Zavadskas, E.K. Basiri, M.H., “Ranking the strategies of the mining sector through ANP and TOPSIS in a SWOT framework”, Journal of Business Economics and Management 2011, 12, 670–689.
  • Yüksel, I., Dağdeviren M., “Using the analytic network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis- a case study for a textile firm”, Information Sciences 2007, 177, 3364–3382. Kamran, M., Fazal, M.R., Mudassar M., Towards empowerment of the renewable energy sector in Pakistan for sustainable energy evolution: SWOT analysis, Renewable Energy 2020, 146, 543-558.
  • Saaty, T. L., The analytic hierarchy process, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980.
  • Saaty, T.L., Takizawa, M., Dependence and independence: from linear hierarchies to nonlinear Networks, European Journal of Operational Research 1986, 26, 229–237.
  • Şevkli M., Oztekin A., Uysal O., Torlak G., Türkyilmaz A., Delen D., Development of a fuzzy ANP based SWOT analysis for the airline industry in Turkey, Expert Systems with Applications 2012, 39, 14–24.
  • Saaty, T.L., Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic Network Process, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, 1996.
  • Saaty, T.L., Fundamentals of the analytic network process, In ISAHP, Kobe, Japan, August 1999, 12–14.
  • Saaty, T.L., Vargas, L.G., Models, methods, concepts and applications of the analytic hierarchy process. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001.
  • Lee, W., Kim, S.H., Using analytic network process and goal programming for interdependent information system project selection. Computers and Operations Research 2000, 27, 367–382.

Evaluation of Priority Strategies for Increasing Solar Power Capacity in Turkey's Electricity Grid Using a Fuzzy Analytic Network Process Approach

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 3, 1309 - 1322, 30.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.31202/ecjse.917498

Abstract

Because of rising consumption, rising electricity generation costs, and economic and environmental concerns, most countries are attempting to meet their electricity generation needs through renewable energy rather than fossil fuels. With their low production costs and high potential, photovoltaic (PV) panels have become a driving force in increasing the share of renewable energy in power grids. It is critical for countries to determine the development strategies for all renewable resources separately in their long-term energy planning. However, decision makers' decision information is frequently ambiguous due to time constraints, external factors, and a lack of data. In situations where the objectives and constraints are inherently uncertain, establishing a fuzzy decision process is critical to accurate planning. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) are determined and seven different alternative strategies are set out in this study in order to increase the installed capacity of solar power in Turkey's power grid. The weights of the SWOT factors and all sub-factors are determined using a Fuzzy Analytical Network Process (FANP) approach. According to the findings, private residential and public buildings in Turkey are not effectively used in the generation of electricity. And, some technical and specific regulations for these areas should be prioritized.

References

  • International Energy Agency (IEA), Key world energy statistics 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2020.
  • International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2021, https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/March/Renewable-Capacity-Statistics-2021.
  • Türkiye Elektrik İletim A.Ş. (TEIAS), Ocak 2021 Kurulu Güç Raporu, https://www.teias.gov.tr/tr-TR/kurulu-guc-raporlari.
  • Pohekar, S.D., Ramachandran M., Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning—a review, Renewable Sustainable Energy Reviews 2004, 8, 365–81.
  • Chen, W.M., Kim H., Yamaguchi H., “Renewable energy in eastern Asia: renewable energy policy review and comparative SWOT analysis for promoting renewable energy in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan”, Energy Policy 2014, 74, 319-29.
  • Erdogmuş, S., Aras H., Koc E., “Evaluation of alternative fuels for residential heating in Turkey using analytic network process (ANP) with group decision-making”, Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2006;10:269-79.
  • Ak, M.F., “Tedarikçi Seçiminde Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Metodolojisi Tabanlı Yeni Bir Model” El-Cezerî Journal of Science and Engineering, 2020, 7(2); 410-423.
  • Apak, M., Ergün, M., Özen, H., Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHS) ile Tehlikeli Yol Kenarı Tesislerine Araç Çarpma Risklerine Karşı Bir Duyarlılık Analizi, El-Cezeri Journal of Science and Engineering, 2019, 6(3), 836-846.
  • Yuan, J., Li, X., Xu, C., Zhao, C., Liu, Y., “Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method”, Energy 2019, 176, 623-640.
  • Azimi, R., Yazdani-Chamzini, A., Fouladgar, M.M. Zavadskas, E.K. Basiri, M.H., “Ranking the strategies of the mining sector through ANP and TOPSIS in a SWOT framework”, Journal of Business Economics and Management 2011, 12, 670–689.
  • Yüksel, I., Dağdeviren M., “Using the analytic network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis- a case study for a textile firm”, Information Sciences 2007, 177, 3364–3382. Kamran, M., Fazal, M.R., Mudassar M., Towards empowerment of the renewable energy sector in Pakistan for sustainable energy evolution: SWOT analysis, Renewable Energy 2020, 146, 543-558.
  • Saaty, T. L., The analytic hierarchy process, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980.
  • Saaty, T.L., Takizawa, M., Dependence and independence: from linear hierarchies to nonlinear Networks, European Journal of Operational Research 1986, 26, 229–237.
  • Şevkli M., Oztekin A., Uysal O., Torlak G., Türkyilmaz A., Delen D., Development of a fuzzy ANP based SWOT analysis for the airline industry in Turkey, Expert Systems with Applications 2012, 39, 14–24.
  • Saaty, T.L., Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic Network Process, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, 1996.
  • Saaty, T.L., Fundamentals of the analytic network process, In ISAHP, Kobe, Japan, August 1999, 12–14.
  • Saaty, T.L., Vargas, L.G., Models, methods, concepts and applications of the analytic hierarchy process. Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001.
  • Lee, W., Kim, S.H., Using analytic network process and goal programming for interdependent information system project selection. Computers and Operations Research 2000, 27, 367–382.
There are 18 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Fazil Kaytez 0000-0001-6156-4772

Publication Date September 30, 2021
Submission Date April 16, 2021
Acceptance Date June 14, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 8 Issue: 3

Cite

IEEE F. Kaytez, “Türkiye Elektrik Şebekesinde Güneş Kurulu Gücünün Artırılmasında Öncelikli Stratejilerin Bir Bulanık Analitik Ağ Proses Yaklaşımı ile Değerlendirilmesi”, ECJSE, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 1309–1322, 2021, doi: 10.31202/ecjse.917498.