Farklı İktisadi Faaliyet Göstergeleri Açısından Toplam İthalat Talep Fonsiyonu: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2017, Volume: 1 Issue: 1, 1 - 29, 01.12.2017

Ahmet Güney

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye Ekonomisi için beş farklı toplam ithalat talep fonksiyonu ARDL sınır testi ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) yaklaşımı ile 2003:Q1- 2016:Q3 dönemi için tahmin edilmiştir. Wang ve Lee (2012) ve Guzgor(2014) çalışmalarının temel model olarak takip edildiği bu çalışmada, beş farklı ''iktisadi faaliyet göstergesi'''nin, küresel risk algısının, nispi fiyatların ve 2008-2009 küresel ekonomik bunalımının Türk İthalat talebine uzun ve kısa dönemde etkileri araştırılmıştır. Literatür taramamızda, özellikle nihai satışların iktisadi faaliyetin bir göstergesi olarak kullanıldığı bir çalışmaya rastlanılmaması, bu anlamda çalışmamızın literatüre katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, Türkiye'de ithalat talebi ortalama gelir esnekliğinin uzun dönemde 0.84 ve kısa vadede 0.96, fiyat esnekliğinin ise hem uzun hem kısa dönemde 0.57 olduğu, 2008-2009 küresel krizinin uzun dönemde ithalatı azaltıcı etkide bulunduğunu ancak küresel risk algısının veya belirsizliğinin ithalat talebi üzerinde her iki dönemde de bir etkide bulunmadığı gözlemlenmiştir. 

Keywords

ithalat Talep Fonsiyonu, Gelir Esnekliği, Fiyat esnekliği

Aggregate Import Demand Function In Terms Of Different Economic Activity Indicators: Turkey Sample

Abstract

    In this study, it is estimated that five different aggregate import demond functions bu the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds test and error correction model(ECM) approach for the period 2003:Q1 to 2016:Q3 in the Turkish economy. In this study in which the papers of Wang-Lee (2012) and Guzgor(2014) are fellowed as fundamental model, it is investigated the effects of five different economic activity indicator, global risk perception, relative prices and the global economic depression of 2008-2009 on Turkish demand in the short and long run. As far as we investigate, no study have been found that ''final sales'' are used as an indicator of economic activity and that is why it is conceived that this study makes contribution to the literature. The empirical findings of the study show that; firstly, income elasticity in the long-run is 0,57, finally, The global crisis of 2008-2009 have effected to the import to decrease in the long-run, but the global risk perception or uncertainly of it has no effect on import demand both in the short-run and the long-run.

Keywords

Import Demand Function, Economic Activity, income elasticity, price elasticity

References

• Adewuyi, A. O. (2016). Determinants of import demand for non-renewable energy (petroleum) products: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Energy Policy, 95, 73-93.
• Anaman, Kwabena A. ve Buffong S. M., (2001), "Analysis of The Detenninants of Aggregate Import Demand in Brunei Darussalam from 1964 to 1997", Asian Economic Joumal, Vol.15, 61-70.
• Bahmani-0. M. ve Kara, Orhan, (2005), "Incomeand Price Elasticities of Trade: Some New Estimates", The Intemational Trade Joumal, Vol.19, No.2,165-178.
• Chani, M. P., Z. ve Amatul. R. C., (2011), "Determination of ImportDemand in Pakistan:The Role of Expenditure Components", Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol.18, No.8,93-110.
• Emran, M. S. ve Shilpi, F. (2010), "Estimating an Import Demand Function in Developing Countries: A Structural Econometric Approachwith Applications to lndia and Sri Lanka", Review of Intemational Economics, Vol.18, No.2, 307-319.
• Enders, W. (2015), Applied Econometric Time Series, Fourth Edition, Wiley, USA.
• Gafar, J., (1995), "Some Estimates of The Price and Income Elasticities for Import Demand Three Caribbean Countries", AppliedEconomics, Vol.27, No.11,1045-1048.
• Goldstein, M. ve MOHSİN,K. S, (1985), "Incomeand Price Effects in foreign Trade", Handbook of Intemational Economics, Vol.2,1041-1105.
• Gozgor, G., (2014), "Aggregated and Disaggregated Import Demand in China: An Empirical Study", Economic Modelling, Vol.43, 1-8.
• Harris, R. ve Sollis, R., (2003), Applied Time Series Modelling And Forecasting, Wiley, England.
• Hong, P., (1999), "Import Elasticities Revisited", Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Discussion Paper, No. 1 O, United Nations, (Çevrimiçi)http://www.un.org/ esa/ desa/papers/1999/ esa99dp 1 O.pdf
• Houthakker, H.S. ve Magee, S. P., (1969) "Incomeand Price Elasticities in World Trade", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.51, No.2,111-125.
• Melo, O. ve Vogt, M. G., (1984), "Determinants of TheDemandforlmports of Venezuela", Journal of Development Economics, Vol.14, 351-358.
• Modeste, N. C., (2011), "An Empirical Analysis of TheDemandforimports in Three CARICOM Member Countries: An Application of The Bounds Test for Cointegration", Rev Black PolitEcon, Vol.38, 53-62
• Murray, T. ve Ginman, P., (1976), An Emprical Examination of The Traditional Aggregate Import Demand Model", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.58, No.1, 75-80.
• Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., (2005), "Estimating Incomeand Price Elasticities of Imports for fıji in a Contegration Framework", Economic Modelling, Vol.22, 423-438.
• Narayan, P. K. ve Smyth, R., (2005), "The Determinants of Aggregate Import Demand in Brunei Darussalam: An Empirical Assesment Using a Cointegrationand Error Correction Approach", The Singapore Economic Review, Vol.50, No.2, 197-210.
• Perron, P., (1988), "Trendsand Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach", Joumal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.12,297-332.
• Phillips P. C. B. and PERRON P., "Testing for A Unit Root in Time Series Regression", Biometrika1988, Cilt 75, Sayı 2, s. 335-346.
• Phillips, P., C. B., (1987), "Time Series Regression With a Unit Root", Econometrica, Vol.55, No.2,277-301.
• Santos-Paulino, A. U., "The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Imports in Selected Developing Countries", World Development, Vol.30, No.6, 959-974.
• Senhadji, A., (1998), "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross Country Analysis", IMF StaffPapers, Vol.45, No.2, 236-268.
• Sinha, D., (1997), "Determinants of Import Demand In Thailand", Intemational Economic Journal,Vol.11, No.4,73-83.
• Tang, T., (2003a), "Japanese Aggregate Import Demand Function: Reassessment From The "bounds" Testing Approach", Japan and World Economy, Vol.15, 419-436.
• Wilson, J.F. ve Takacs, W. E., (1979), "Differential Responsesto Priceand Exchange Rate Influences in The Foreign Trade of Selected Industrial Countries", The Review of Economics and Statistics,Vol.61, No.2, 267-279.
• Xu, X., (2002), "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to Import Demand: A Structural Model",Ecocomics Letters, Vol.74, 265-270.