Determinants of the Shadow Economy: A Study on the Organization of Turkic States Countries

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the determinants of the shadow economy in the countries of the Turkic States Organization (OTS). Although the shadow economy has been extensively studied in the literature using various variables, it has not yet been addressed in the Organization of Turkic States countries. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the shadow economy’s economic, social, and financial determinants specifically within the Organization of Turkic States context. This area has not been examined in the empirical literature. The study uses data from 1994-2023 and employs simultaneous panel quantile regression for analysis. According to the findings of this study, the level of financial development has asymmetric effects on the shadow economy. On the other hand, the level of human development and the control of the corruption index have reduced the shadow economy. Inflation does not have a statistically significant impact on the shadow economy. Combating the shadow economy requires financial, economic, social, and political elements. These findings can serve as a valuable reference, particularly for decision-makers in underdeveloped or developing nations.

Keywords

• Shadow economy
• financial development index
• control of corruption index
• human development index
• inflation

Kayıt Dışı Ekonominin Belirleyicileri: Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı (TDT) ülkelerinde kayıt dışı ekonominin belirleyicilerini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Kayıt dışı ekonomi, literatürde farklı değişkenler kullanılarak geniş kapsamda incelenmiş olmasına rağmen, henüz Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı ülkelerinde ele alınmamıştır. Bu yüzden, bu çalışma kayıt dışı ekonominin ekonomik, sosyal ve finansal belirleyicilerini, ampirik literatürde incelenmemiş olan TDT ülkeleri özelinde araştırmayı hedeflemektedir Çalışmada, 1994-2023 dönemi verileri kullanılarak eşanlı panel kantil regresyonu yöntemiyle analizler yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, finansal gelişmişlik düzeyi, kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde asimetrik etkilere sahiptir. Diğer yandan insani gelişmişlik düzeyi ve yolsuzlukla mücadele endeksi kayıt dışı ekonomiyi azaltıcı bir etkiye sahiptir. Enflasyonun ise kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerinde istatiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Kayıt dışı ekonomi ile mücadelede sadece finansal ve ekonomik faktörler değil, aynı zamanda sosyal ve politik unsurlar da önemlidir. Bu bulguların, özellikle az gelişmiş veya gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki karar vericiler için önemli bir referans olabilecek nitelikte olduğu söylenebilir.

Keywords

• Kayıt dışı ekonomi
• finansal gelişmişlik endeksi
• yolsuzlukla mücadele endeksi
• insani gelişme endeksi
• enflasyon

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