Yukarı Fırat Havzasının Uzun Dönem Akım Eğilimlerinin Analizi

Öz

Fırat Nehri  Havzası sistemi, Türkiye, Suriye, Irak'taki su, gıda, enerji güvenliği ve olumsuz iklim değişikliği etkisinden dolayı hayati öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de bulunan Üst Fırat Havzası'nda sıcaklık ve yağış ile birlikte uzun dönemli akarsu akışında doğal olarak değişen eğilime odaklanmaktadır. Havzada, inşası devam etmekte olan büyük barajlarla birlikte, havza çapında kapsamlı bir hidrolojik model oluşturmanın karmaşıklığı nedeniyle, uzun vadeli akış eğilimlerini tahmin etmek amacıyla, regresyon ve zaman serileri analizlerinde akım verisini kullandık. Yıllık doğal akışın esas olarak, baraj inşalarından değilde, doğal faktörlerden dolayı azaldığı sonucuna vardık. Çalışma alanında elde edilen uzun süreli yağış ve hava sıcaklığı eğilimleri, elde edilen akış şiddeti trendlerini desteklemektedir. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar, havzaya komşu olan ülkeler arasındaki sınır ötesi su yönetimi konusundaki işbirlikçi yaklaşımın acil bir ihtiyaç olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ortadoğu suları,Su araştırmaları,Akım Tahmini,Sınırıaşan sular,Çok değişkenli istatistikler

Analysis of long-term natural streamflow trends in Upper Euphrates River Basin

Abstract

The Euphrates River Basin system is of vital importance for water, food, energy security in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and under adverse climate change impact. It is therefore this paper mainly focuses on the naturally changing trend in long term streamflow with temperature and precipitation on the Upper Euphrates Basin that lies in Turkey. Because of the complexity of the setting up a basin-wide comprehensive  hydrological model  in the basin which have several large dams under operation ,we  mainly used “run off data” in the statistical regression and time series analyses to predict the long term streamflow trends. We conclude that the annual natural flow has decreased mainly due to natural factors not because of construction dams. Obtained long term precipitation and air temperature trends in study area support the obtained streamflow trends. Results obtained from this study indicate that collaborative approach on transboundary water management between riparian’s is an urgent need.

Keywords

• Middle East water,Water researches,Flow prediction,Transboundary waters,Multivariate Statistics

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