Inflation is one of the economic problems that need to be solved for countries. Especially in outward-oriented economies, besides the internal factors that cause inflation, external factors come to the fore. Import and export relations with other countries are important for decision makers in the economic policies of the countries to learn how countries are related to the formation of inflation. From this point of view, it is thought that it is necessary to examine the causality relationship between inflation and import and export data as of appropriate periods.
In the study, the relationship between inflation and export and import data was analyzed. The study has utilized data provided by the Turkey Statistical Institute. The study covers the years 2008 and 2016. Monthly data for these years were used in the study. After the series became stationary in the study, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis were applied on the series. In the study, as a result of cointegration analysis, a significant relationship was determined between the series. As a result of the Granger causality analysis, export-import and import-export results are not the reason of import. Imports are the cause of exports. Looking at the result, there is a one-sided causality. Inflation-Export and Export-Inflation is the cause of exports as a result of inflation. Export is the cause of inflation. As a result, there is causality between the two variables. Inflation-Import and Import-Inflation is not the cause of imports as a result of inflation. Imports are the cause of inflation. Looking at the result, there is a one-sided causality.
Publication Date : August 31, 2020
|APA||Gedi̇k, A . (2020). Türkiye de İthalat İhracat İle Enflasyon Arasında Nedensellik Analizi . Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi , (19) , 323-333 . DOI: 10.31590/ejosat.734408|