A Quantitative Approach to Wheat Production in Turkey

Year 2021, Issue: 32, 235 - 240, 31.12.2021

Kübra Tümay Ateş

https://doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.1039919

Abstract

The scarcity of precipitation, which is one of the biggest problems of recent times, has brought with it a weakening in agricultural production. Looking at Turkey in general, it is seen that the last years have been very dry. Increasing droughts have reduced the farmer's ability to obtain irrigation water, and increasing input costs have made it very difficult to obtain fertilizer and consumables. This situation affects the resources of the state, albeit indirectly. Due to these and similar reasons, the production of wheat has decreased compared to previous years and its cost has increased. In this context, the estimation data for the coming years is that wheat production will decrease. Considering all these, the parameters affecting the wheat production were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute , the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the Turkish Grain Board .In line with the information obtained, it was explained by using principal component analysis with which parameters wheat production is more related. At the same time, whether the effect parameters have an indirect effect on wheat production was investigated by correlation analysis. The factors that may cause a decrease in wheat production were evaluated quantitatively.

Keywords

Principal Component Analysis, Correlation Analysis, Parameter Determination

Türkiye’deki Buğday Üretimine Kantitatif Bir Yaklaşım

Abstract

Son dönemlerin en büyük sorunlarından biri olan yağışın azlığı beraberinde tarımsal üretimlerde zayıflamaları getirmiştir. Türkiye geneline bakıldığında son yılların çok kurak geçtiği görülmektedir. Kuraklıkların artması çiftçinin sulama suyunu elde etme imkanını azaltmış, artan girdi maliyetleri gübrenin ve sarf malzemelerin temin edebilmesini oldukça zorlaştırmıştır. Bu durum dolaylı yoldan da olsa devletin kaynaklarını da etkilemektedir. Bu ve bunun gibi sebeplerden dolayı buğdayın geçmiş yıllara göre üretimi azalmış ve maliyeti de artmıştır. Bu kapsamda gelecek yıllar için tahmin verileri de buğday üretiminin azalacağı yönündedir. Tüm bunlar göz önüne alınarak, buğdayın üretimini etkileyen parametreler Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) ,Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı (TOB) ve Toprak Mahsulleri Ofisi (TMO)’dan elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen bilgiler doğrultusunda buğday üretiminin hangi parametrelerle daha çok ilişkili olduğu temel bileşen analizi kullanılarak açıklanmıştır. Aynı zamanda etki parametrelerinin dolaylı olarak buğday üretimine etkisinin olup olmadığı korelasyon analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Buğday üretiminin azalmasına sebep olabilecek faktörler kantitatif olarak değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

Temel Bileşen Analizi, Korelasyon Analizi, Parametre Belirleme

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