Kara Para Aklamaya Dair Bir Olay Çalışması: Deutsche Bank Örneği

Year 2024, , 191 - 207, 31.08.2024

İsmail Canöz

https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.1471760

Abstract

Bu makale, kara para aklama ile ilgili işletme skandallarını Deutsche Bank örneği üzerinden incelemeyi ve bu suçların duyurulmasının ilgili bankanın hisse senedi performansı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. 31 Ocak 2017 ile 25 Eylül 2023 tarihleri arasında bankanın dahil olduğu altı kara para aklama vakası tespit edilmiştir. Bu olaylardan üçü bankaya uygulanan para cezalarını, ikisi bankanın ödemeyi kabul ettiği cezaları ve biri de bankanın genel merkezine yapılan baskını içermektedir. Bu haberlerin ilanının ve bunlara uygulanan cezaların bankanın hisse senedi fiyatlarını olumsuz etkileyip etkilemediği, anormal getiriler hesaplanarak araştırılmıştır. Anormal getirilerin hesaplanmasında düzeltilmiş getiri modeli kullanılmıştır. Olay tarihinden önceki ve sonraki 1, 3, 5, 10 ve 15 günlük olay pencereleri belirlenmiş ve bu olay pencereleri için kümülatif anormal getiriler hesaplanmıştır. Kümülatif anormal getirilerin istatistiksel anlamlılığını değerlendirmek için standart bir t-testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışma bulguları, bankanın merkez binasına yapılan baskın ile ilgili olayın diğerlerinden açıkça farklı olduğunu ve hemen hemen her olay penceresinde bu olayın duyurulması ile negatif ve anlamlı kümülatif anormal getirilerin ortaya çıktığını göstermiştir. Ancak her kara para aklama duyurusunu takip eden günlerde olumsuz bir fiyat tepkisi olduğuna dair kanıt elde edilememiştir. Bu bulgular, hisse senedinin dolaşımda olduğu piyasanın etkinliğinin dönemsel olarak değiştiğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmanın bulguları, bu tür skandalların borsa üzerindeki etkisine ışık tutması açısından önemlidir.

Keywords

Kara para aklama, işletme skandalları, olay çalışması, anormal getiri

An Event Study on Money Laundering: The Case of Deutsche Bank

Abstract

This article aims to examine the business scandals related to money laundering through the case of Deutsche Bank and investigate the effect of the announcement of these crimes on the stock performance of the relevant bank. Six money laundering cases involving the bank were detected between January 31, 2017, and September 25, 2023. Three of these incidents involved fines imposed on the bank, two that the bank agreed to pay, and one that involved a raid on the bank’s headquarters. Whether the announcement of these disclosures and the penalties imposed on them negatively affected the bank’s stock prices was investigated by calculating abnormal returns. The adjusted return model was used to calculate abnormal returns. Event windows of 1, 3, 5, 10, and 15 days were determined before and after the event date, and cumulative abnormal returns were calculated for these event windows. A standard t-test was applied to evaluate the statistical significance of cumulative abnormal returns. The study findings showed that the event related to the bank’s headquarters raid was clearly different from the others, and negative and significant cumulative abnormal returns emerged with the announcement of this event in almost every event window. However, evidence of an adverse price reaction in the days following each money laundering announcement has yet to be demonstrated. These findings indicate that the efficiency of the market in which the stock is in circulation changes periodically. The findings of this study are significant as they shed light on the impact of such scandals on the stock market.

Keywords

Money laundering, business scandals, event study, abnormal returns

References

• Armitage, S. (1995). Event study methods and evidence on their performance. Journal of economic surveys, 9(1), 25-52.
• Balani, H. (2019). Assessing the introduction of anti-money laundering regulations on bank stock valuation: An empirical analysis. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 22(1), 76-88.
• Basaran-Brooks, B. (2022). Money laundering and financial stability: does adverse publicity matter?. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 30(2), 196-214.
• Basdas, U., & Oran, A. (2014). Event studies in Turkey. Borsa Istanbul Review, 14(3), 167-188.
• Batz, L., & Kočenda, E. (2023). Financial crime and punishment: A meta‐analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 1-61.
• Berglund, C., & Ekelund, B. (2019). Corporate Scandal: The Reputational Impact on the Financial Performance: An event study of Danske Bank’s money laundering scandal. Jönköping University, JIBS, Business Administration, Jönköping.
• Binder, J. (1998). The event study methodology since 1969. Review of quantitative Finance and Accounting, 11, 111-137.
• Blum, J. A., Levi, M., Naylor, R. T., & Williams, P. (1998). Financial havens, banking secrecy and money-laundering (No. Technical Series No. Issue 8). UN.
• Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1980). Measuring security price performance. Journal of financial economics, 8(3), 205-258.
• Canöz, İ. (2021). Deutsche Bankın Karıştığı Skandallar. A.F. Aysan, M. Camgöz ve F. Yiğit (Ed.), Finansal Vaka Analizleri: Vakalarla Bankacılık (1. Baskı) içinde (s. 87-113). İstanbul: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.
• Chaikin, D. (2008). Commercial corruption and money laundering: a preliminary analysis. Journal of Financial Crime, 15(3), 269-281.
• Fama, E. F. (1970). Session Topic: Stock Market Price Behavior Session Chairman: Burton G. Malkiel Efficient Capital Markets: A Review Of Theory And Empirical Work. The journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
• Katsikides, S., Markoulis, S., & Papaminas, M. (2016). Corporate social responsibility and stock market performance: An event study approach. International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology, 6(2), 1-8.
• Le Khac, N. A., Markos, S., & Kechadi, M. T. (2010, April). A data mining-based solution for detecting suspicious money laundering cases in an investment bank. In 2010 Second International Conference on Advances in Databases, Knowledge, and Data Applications (pp. 235-240). IEEE.
• Logan, B. (2019). The Case of Danske Bank and Money Laundering. Seven Pillars Institute, 12 November, 2017. https://sevenpillarsinstitute.org/the-case-of-danske-bank-and-money-laundering/
• MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of economic literature, 35(1), 13-39.
• Mohamed, Z. M., & Ahmad, K. (2012). Investigation and prosecution of money laundering cases in Malaysia. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 15(4), 421-429.
• Morris-Cotterill, N. (2001). Money laundering. Foreign Policy, (124), 16-22.
• Mousavi, M., Zimon, G., Salehi, M., & Stępnicka, N. (2022). The effect of corporate governance structure on fraud and money laundering. Risks, 10(9), 176.
• Naheem, M. A. (2016). Money laundering: A primer for banking staff. International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, 13(2), 135-156.
• Noroaho, M. (2020). Impact of financial crime related news on banks’ share price performance: an event study on Nordic banks. Master’s Dissertation. University in Lappeenranta, Finland.
• Peterson, P. P. (1989). Event studies: A review of issues and methodology. Quarterly journal of business and economics, 36-66.
• Rao, S. M. (1997). The effect of announcement of bribery, scandal, white collar crime, and illegal payment on returns to shareholders. Journal of Financial and Strategic Decisions, 10(3), 55-62.
• Richards, J. R. (1999). Transnational criminal organizations, cybercrime, and money laundering: a handbook for law enforcement officers, auditors, and financial investigators. CRC press.
• Sagastume, W. Z., Moreno-Brid, J. C., & Garry, S. (2016). Money laundering and financial risk management in Latin America, with special reference to Mexico. Economía: teoría y práctica, (44), 9-50.
• Salehi, M., & Norouzi, F. (2023). The effect of corporate lobbying on fraud and money laundering. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 26(3), 553-583.
• Schneider, F., & Windischbauer, U. (2008). Money laundering: some facts. European Journal of Law and Economics, 26(3), 387-404.
• Sorescu, A., Warren, N. L., & Ertekin, L. (2017). Event study methodology in the marketing literature: an overview. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 45, 186-207.
• Stenerud, M., & Høgalmen, K. (2019). The effects of financial crime on firm performance: evidence from Norway. Master’s Dissertation. BI Norwegian Business School, Oslo.
• Tay, L. M., Puah, C. H., Brahmana, R. K., & Malek, N. I. A. (2016). The effect of white collar crime announcement on stock price performance: Evidence from Malaysian stock market. Journal of Financial Crime, 23(4), 1126-1139.
• Tiemann, M. (2024). Money laundering, media and European banks. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 27(1), 93-126.
• Yeoh, P. (2019). Banks’ vulnerabilities to money laundering activities. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 23(1), 122-135.
• Yiğit, F., & Canöz, İ. (2020). The reaction of airline stocks in Europe to the covid-19 pandemic: An event study methodology. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(39), 1309-1326.
• Young, M. A. (2013). The exploitation of offshore financial centres. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 16(3), 198-208.