TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE

İrem Yalkı

doi:10.46737/emid.2022849

TR EN

TEKNOLOJİ YOĞUNLUĞU MU ÇEŞİTLENDİRME Mİ? TÜRKİYE'DE İHRACAT YAPISI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME

Abstract

İhracatın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi yalnızca ihracat hacmiyle açıklanmaz. İhracatın yapısı, teknolojik kompozisyonu ve çeşitlendirmesini de kapsayarak, büyümeyi etkiler. Bu sebeple bu çalışma, ihracat yapısının bu iki boyutunu, teknoloji yoğunluğu ve çeşitlendirmeyi, ihracat oranıyla birlikte, Türkiye'de 1995-2025 döneminde ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri açısından incelemektedir. Bu amaçla ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Sınır testi, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Teknoloji yoğunluğundaki 1 puanlık bir artış, uzun dönemde GSYİH'yi yaklaşık %1.85 oranında artırmaktadır. İşgücündeki %1'lik bir artış ise GSYİH'yi yaklaşık %1.68 oranında artırmaktadır. İhracat çeşitlendirmesinin ise anlamlı bir uzun dönem etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Hem teknoloji yoğunluğu hem de işgücü kısa dönemde negatif etkiler göstermektedir. Bu etkiler uzun dönemde pozitife dönmektedir, bu da yapısal dönüşümle ilişkili uyum maliyetleriyle tutarlıdır. Hata düzeltme terimi negatif ve anlamlıdır. Uzun dönem dengesinden sapmaların yaklaşık %20'si bir yıl içinde düzeltilmektedir. Bu bulgular, teknolojik yükselmeyi hedefleyen politikaların, yalnızca ihracat sepetini genişletmeyi hedefleyen politikalara kıyasla uzun dönemli büyüme için daha etkili olabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, İhracat Teknoloji Yoğunluğu, İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi, ARDL Sınır Testi, Türkiye

TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE

Abstract

The effect of exports on economic growth is not determined by export volume alone. Export structure, involving the technological composition and the diversification of exports, also affects growth. Therefore, this study examines these two dimensions of export structure, which are technology intensity and diversification, together with export intensity, and their effects on economic growth in Türkiye over the period 1995–2025. The ARDL bounds testing approach is employed for this purpose. The bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. A 1 percentage point increase in technology intensity raises GDP by approximately 1.85 percent in the long run, and a 1 percent increase in the labor force raises GDP by approximately 1.68 percent, while export diversification exerts no significant long-run effect. Both technology intensity and labor show negative short-run effects that turn positive in the long run, consistent with adjustment costs associated with structural change. The error correction term is negative and significant, with approximately 20 percent of any deviation from long-run equilibrium corrected within a single year. These findings suggest that policies aimed at technological upgrading are likely to be more effective for long-run growth than policies aimed solely at broadening the export basket.

Keywords

Economic Growth, Export Technology Intensity, Export Diversification, ARDL Bounds Testing, Türkiye

References

Acaravcı, A. & Kargı, G. (2015). "Türkiye’de İhracatın Çeşitlendirilmesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme". Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 1(1): 1–16.
Aditya, A. & Acharyya, R. (2013). "Export Diversification, Composition, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Cross-Country Analysis". The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7): 959–992.
Adu, D. T., Hartarska, V., Sawadgo, W. & Thompson, H. (2025). "Reassessing the Role of Export Diversification in Driving Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa". Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 12: 102091.
Agosin, M. R. (2007). Export Diversification and Growth in Emerging Economies. Universidad de Chile, Working Paper No. 233.
Ahrens, A., Hansen, C. B. & Schaffer, M. E. (2020). "lassopack: Model Selection and Prediction with Regularized Regression in Stata". The Stata Journal, 20(1): 176–235.
Akar, G. & Ay, A. (2018). "İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği". Journal of Social and Humanities Sciences Research, 5(21): 809–820.
Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). "Export Diversification and Growth: An Empirical Investigation". Applied Economics Letters, 7(9): 559–562.
Altun, M. & Benli, M. (2021). "İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ve Türkiye’nin Büyüme Performansı". Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 67: 138–158.
Azam, M. & Azam, S. (2023). "Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Bangladesh". Journal of Empirical Studies, 10(1): 1–18.
Balassa, B. (1978). "Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence". Journal of Development Economics, 5(2): 181–189.

Balassa, B. (1985). "Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries after the 1973 Oil Shock". Journal of Development Economics, 18(1): 23–35.
Breusch, T. S. (1978). "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models". Australian Economic Papers, 17(31): 334–355.
Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1979). "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation". Econometrica, 47(5): 1287–1294.
Cadot, O., Carrère, C. & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). "Export Diversification: What’s Behind the Hump?". The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2): 590–605.
Cai, C. & Li, N. (2023). "The Threshold Effect of Export Sophistication on Natural Resources-Trade Diversification Nexus". Resources Policy, 86(Part A): 104316.
Calzada Olvera, B. & Spinola, D. (2025). "Determinants of Export Diversification in Resource-Dependent Economies: The Role of Product Relatedness and Macroeconomic Conditions". Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 74: 578–590.
Christopoulos, D. K. & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). "Smooth Breaks and Non-linear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates". Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6): 1076–1093.
Cieślik, A. & Parteka, A. (2021). "Relative Productivity, Country Size and Export Diversification". Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 57: 28–44.
Cook, R. D. & Weisberg, S. (1983). "Diagnostics for Heteroscedasticity in Regression". Biometrika, 70(1): 1–10.
Çeviker, A. & Taş, İ. (2011). "Türkiye'de İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi ve Büyüme İlişkisi". Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 3(2): 1-10.
Değer, K. (2010). "İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Deneyimi (1980–2006)". Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2): 259–287.
Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root". Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427–431.
Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root". Econometrica, 49(4): 1057–1072.
Engle, R. F. (1982). "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation". Econometrica, 50(4): 987–1007.
Feder, G. (1983). "On Exports and Economic Growth". Journal of Development Economics, 12(1–2): 59–73.
Feenstra, R. C. & Kee, H. L. (2008). "Export Variety and Country Productivity: Estimating the Monopolistic Competition Model with Endogenous Productivity". Journal of International Economics, 74(2): 500–518.
Felipe, J., Kumar, U., Abdon, A. & Bacate, M. (2012). "Product Complexity and Economic Development". Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(1): 36–68.
Godfrey, L. G. (1978). "Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables". Econometrica, 46(6): 1293–1301.
Göçer, İ. (2013). "Ar-Ge Harcamalarının Yüksek Teknolojili Ürün İhracatı, Dış Ticaret Dengesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri". Maliye Dergisi, 165: 215–240.
Gözgör, G. & Can, M. (2016). "Effects of the Product Diversification of Exports on Income at Different Stages of Economic Development". Eurasian Business Review, 6(2): 215–235.
Haini, H., Wei Loon, P. & Li Li, P. (2023). "Can Export Diversification Promote Export Upgrading? Evidence from an Oil-Dependent Economy". Resources Policy, 80: 103292.
Hausmann, R., Hwang, J. & Rodrik, D. (2007). "What You Export Matters". Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1): 1–25.
Herfindahl, O. C. (1950). Concentration in the Steel Industry. Unpublished PhD Dissertation, Columbia University.
Herzer, D. & Nowak-Lehmann D., F. (2006). "What Does Export Diversification Do for Growth? An Econometric Analysis". Applied Economics, 38(15): 1825–1838.
Hesse, H. (2008). Export Diversification and Economic Growth. Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper No. 21. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Hidalgo, C. A., Klinger, B., Barabási, A.-L. & Hausmann, R. (2007). "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations". Science, 317(5837): 482–487.
Hidalgo, C. A. & Hausmann, R. (2009). "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26): 10570–10575.
Hirschman, A. O. (1945). National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Hoerl, A. E. & Kennard, R. W. (1970). "Ridge Regression: Biased Estimation for Nonorthogonal Problems". Technometrics, 12(1): 55–67.
Imbs, J. & Wacziarg, R. (2003). "Stages of Diversification". American Economic Review, 93(1): 63–86.
Jarque, C. M. & Bera, A. K. (1987). "A Test for Normality of Observations and Regression Residuals". International Statistical Review, 55(2): 163–172.
Jordan, S. & Philips, A. Q. (2018). "Cointegration Testing and Dynamic Simulations of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models". The Stata Journal, 18(4): 902–923.
Kalaitzi, A. S. (2024). "Skill Intensity in Manufacturing Exports: Do Basic, Technology-Intensive or Differentiated Exports Cause Growth in Kuwait?". Economic Change and Restructuring, 57: 156.
Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y. & Snell, A. (2003). "Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework". Journal of Econometrics, 112(2): 359–379.
Kripfganz, S. & Schneider, D. C. (2020). "Response Surface Regressions for Critical Value Bounds and Approximate p-values in Equilibrium Correction Models". Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(6): 1456–1481.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root". Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3): 159–178.
Lall, S. (2000a). "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985–98". Oxford Development Studies, 28(3): 337–369.
Lall, S. (2000b). Turkish Performance in Exporting Manufactures: A Comparative Structural Analysis. QEH Working Paper Series, No. 47. Oxford: Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
Manga, M. (2019). "Orta Gelir Tuzağı Bağlamında İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi". Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(1): 145–168.
Mora, J. & Olabisi, M. (2023). "Economic Development and Export Diversification: The Role of Trade Costs". International Economics, 173: 102–118.
Navarro Zapata, A., Arrazola, M. & de Hevia, J. (2023). "Determinants of High-tech Exports: New Evidence from OECD Countries". Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15: 1103–1117.
Ozmucur, S. (2007). "Liberalization and Concentration: Case of Turkey". The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(5): 762–777.
Parteka, A., Zarach, Z. H. & Kordalska, A. (2025). "Technological Content of Export Diversification—Evolution along the Economic Growth Process". Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 74: 14–27.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships". Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289–326.
Ramsey, J. B. (1969). "Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least-Squares Regression Analysis". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 31(2): 350–371.
Rodrik, D. (2006). "What’s So Special about China’s Exports?". China & World Economy, 14(5): 1–19.
Shakib, M., Sohag, K., Hassan, M. K. & Vasilyeva, R. (2023). "Finance and Export Diversification Nexus in Russian Regions: Role of Trade Globalization and Regional Potential". Emerging Markets Review, 57: 101059.
Şenses, F. (1990). "An Assessment of the Pattern of Turkish Manufactured Export Growth in the 1980s and its Prospects". İçinde: T. Arıcanlı & D. Rodrik (der.), The Political Economy of Turkey. London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 60–77.
T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı (2023). On İkinci Kalkınma Planı (2024–2028). Ankara: T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı.
T.C. Kalkınma Bakanlığı (2018). On Birinci Kalkınma Planı (2019–2023): Üretim ve Dış Ticaret İlişkisi Çalışma Grubu Raporu. Ankara: T.C. Kalkınma Bakanlığı.
Telatar, O. M., Değer, M. K. & Doğanay, M. A. (2016). "Teknoloji Yoğunluklu Ürün İhracatının Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1996:Q1–2015:Q3)". Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(4): 921–934.
Tibshirani, R. (1996). "Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 58(1): 267–288.
TİM (2026). İhracat 2026 Raporu. İstanbul: Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi.
TÜİK (2026). Dış Ticaret İstatistikleri, Şubat 2026. Haber Bülteni, Sayı: 58234. Ankara: Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu.
UNCTAD (2019). Concentration and Diversification Indices of Merchandise Exports and Imports. UNCTAD/STAT/IE/2019/1. Geneva: UNCTAD.
UNCTAD (2026). UNCTADstat. Geneva: UNCTAD. https://unctadstat.unctad.org
World Bank (2026). World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Zarach, Z. H. & Parteka, A. (2023). "Export Diversification and Dependence on Natural Resources". Economic Modelling, 126: 106436.
Zhang, S., Chen, C. & Li, H. (2024). "Can Outward FDI Promote Export Diversification for Emerging Economies? Firm-Level Evidence from China". Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 68: 269–280.

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Financial Markets and Institutions

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

İrem Yalkı ^*
0000-0002-5226-8899
Türkiye

Publication Date

October 29, 2026

Submission Date

August 20, 2026

Acceptance Date

October 17, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 9 Number: Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı

DOI

https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.2022849

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA62GW52YN

APA

Yalkı, İ. (2026). TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, 9(Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı), 158-180. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.2022849

AMA

1.Yalkı İ. TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026;9(Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı):158-180. doi:10.46737/emid.2022849

Chicago

Yalkı, İrem. 2026. “TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9 (Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı): 158-80. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.2022849.

EndNote

Yalkı İ (October 1, 2026) TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9 Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı 158–180.

IEEE

[1]İ. Yalkı, “TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE”, Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, vol. 9, no. Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı, pp. 158–180, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.46737/emid.2022849.

ISNAD

Yalkı, İrem. “TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi 9/Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı (October 1, 2026): 158-180. https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.2022849.

JAMA

1.Yalkı İ. TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026;9:158–180.

MLA

Yalkı, İrem. “TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE”. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi, vol. 9, no. Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı, Oct. 2026, pp. 158-80, doi:10.46737/emid.2022849.

Vancouver

1.İrem Yalkı. TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE. Ekonomi Maliye İşletme Dergisi. 2026 Oct. 1;9(Prof. Dr. İlker Parasız Özel Sayısı):158-80. doi:10.46737/emid.2022849

TEKNOLOJİ YOĞUNLUĞU MU ÇEŞİTLENDİRME Mİ? TÜRKİYE'DE İHRACAT YAPISI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME

Abstract

Keywords

TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite