TECHNOLOGY INTENSITY OR DIVERSIFICATION? EXPORT COMPOSITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TÜRKİYE
Öz
The effect of exports on economic growth is not determined by export volume alone. Export structure, involving the technological composition and the diversification of exports, also affects growth. Therefore, this study examines these two dimensions of export structure, which are technology intensity and diversification, together with export intensity, and their effects on economic growth in Türkiye over the period 1995–2025. The ARDL bounds testing approach is employed for this purpose. The bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. A 1 percentage point increase in technology intensity raises GDP by approximately 1.85 percent in the long run, and a 1 percent increase in the labor force raises GDP by approximately 1.68 percent, while export diversification exerts no significant long-run effect. Both technology intensity and labor show negative short-run effects that turn positive in the long run, consistent with adjustment costs associated with structural change. The error correction term is negative and significant, with approximately 20 percent of any deviation from long-run equilibrium corrected within a single year. These findings suggest that policies aimed at technological upgrading are likely to be more effective for long-run growth than policies aimed solely at broadening the export basket.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Economic Growth, Export Technology Intensity, Export Diversification, ARDL Bounds Testing, Türkiye
Kaynakça
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