TÜRKİYE’NİN BAŞLICA TİCARET PARTNERLERİNE İHRACATINDA COVID-19 SALGINININ ETKİSİ: ÇEKİM MODELİ YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2024, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 37 - 53

Şükran Kahveci Asiye Tütüncü

https://doi.org/10.46737/emid.1408781

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan Covid-19 salgınının Türkiye’nin ihracatına etkilerinin çekim modeli ile incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye ile başlıca 10 ihracat partneri arasındaki ihracat düzeyi 2020:03-2021:12 dönemi için aylık veriler ile incelenmiştir. Çekim modeli analizinde, ihracatçı ve partner ülkelerin Covid-19 vaka sayıları ve vaka sayılarına bağlı ölen kişi sayıları analize dahil edilerek Covid-19’un ihracat düzeyine etkisi Yüksek Boyutlu Sabit Etkili PPML (PPMLHDFE) tahmincisi ile araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen ampirik bulgular, ihracatçı ülke Covid-19 vaka sayılarında meydana gelen artışların ihracatı negatif, partner ülke vaka sayılarında ve Covid-19’a bağlı ölen kişi sayılarında meydana gelen artışın ise pozitif yönde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Buna göre ihracat düzeyinde, ihracatçı ülke artan Covid-19 vakaları negatif etkiye, partner ülkede artan Covid-19 vakaları ise pozitif etkiye neden olmaktadır.

Keywords

Covid-19, İhracat, Çekim Modeli, PPMLHDFE, Panel Veri Analizi

IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON TURKEY'S EXPORTS TO MAJOR TRADE PARTNERS: GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effects of the Covid-19 epidemic, which has affected the whole world, on Turkey's exports with the gravity model. In this context, the export level between Turkey and its top 10 export partners was examined for the monthly period 2020:03-2021:12. In the gravity model analysis, the number of Covid-19 cases in the exporter and partner countries and the number of deaths due to the number of cases were included in the analysis, and the effect of Covid-19 on the export level was investigated with the High Dimensional Fixed Effect PPML (PPMLHDFE) estimator. Empirical findings obtained in the study show that the increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in the exporting country affects exports negatively, while the increase in the number of cases in the partner country and the number of deaths due to Covid-19 affects exports positively. Accordingly, at the export level, increasing Covid-19 cases in the exporting country causes a negative effect, while increasing Covid-19 cases in the partner country causes a positive effect.

Keywords

Covid-19, Export, Gravity Model, PPMLHDFE, Panel Data Analyze

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