FORECASTING MODELS FOR COVID-19 CASES OF TURKEY USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND DEEP LEARNING

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 3, 353 - 372, 31.12.2020

Yunus Eroğlu

https://doi.org/10.46465/endustrimuhendisligi.771646

Cited By: 5

Öz

Governments face a dilemma between public health and the economy while making strategic decisions on health during a pandemic outbreak. It is of great importance to forecast the number of cases in terms of strategic decisions to be taken by governments especially in outbreak periods and to manage the dilemma mentioned. One of the important issues today is the Covid-19 outbreak for almost all countries. Unfortunately, no effective vaccine or treatment has been found for Covid-19 yet. At the time of this study, however, it was reported that the total number of reported cases by the World Health Organization worldwide was more than thirteen million. Various quarantine measures have been necessary to deal with such a large epidemic. Quarantine measures taken by governments bring countries to face to face with the economic crisis. This creates economic uncertainties and puts governments under tremendous pressure to make accurate and least harmful strategic decisions. For these reasons, governments prefer to make strategic decisions for Covid-19 step by step observing the situation rather than making a sudden decision. If the number of pandemic cases could be predicted before a predetermined time, it would be used as an important guide for governments to manage public health and economic dilemma more accurately. Therefore, this study provides artificial neural network (ANN) and deep learning models (long-short term memory, LSTM networks) to forecast Covid-19 cases before 7-day. The proposed models were tested on real data for Turkey. The results showed that LSTM models performed better than ANN models in both cumulative cases and new cases on the training data set. Comparing the performance of the proposed models over the whole data set, it was observed that the ANN and LSTM algorithms gave competitive results. In addition, the cumulative case forecast performances of both ANN and LSTM models were observed to be better than the new case forecast.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Covid-19, Pandemics, Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Deep Learning, LSTM, Turkey

YAPAY SİNİR AĞLARI VE DERİN ÖĞRENME KULLANARAK TÜRKİYE''DEKİ COVID-19 VAKALARI İÇİN TAHMİN MODELLERİ

Öz

Hükumetler, bir pandemi salgını sırasında stratejik kararlar alırken, halk sağlığı ve ekonomi arasında bir ikilemle karşı karşıyadır. Özellikle salgın dönemlerinde hükumetler tarafından alınacak stratejik kararlar açısından vaka sayısını tahmin etmek ve belirtilen ikilemi yönetmek büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bugün neredeyse tüm ülkeler için önemli konulardan birisi de Covid-19 salgınıdır. Ne yazık ki, henüz Covid-19 için etkili bir aşı veya tedavi bulunamamıştır. Ayrıca, bu çalışmanın hazırlığı sırasında, Dünya Sağlık Örgütü tarafından dünya çapında toplam vaka sayısının on üç milyondan fazla olduğu bildirilmiştir. Böyle büyük bir salgınla başa çıkmak için çeşitli karantina önlemlerinin alınması gerekli olmuştur. Hükumetler tarafından alınan karantina önlemleri, ülkeleri ekonomik krizle karşı karşıya getirmiştir. Bu durum ekonomik belirsizlikler yaratmaktadır ve hükumetleri doğru ve en az zararlı stratejik kararlar almak için muazzam bir baskı altına sokmaktadır. Bu nedenlerle hükumetler, ani bir karar vermek yerine durumu adım adım gözlemleyerek Covid-19 için stratejik kararlar almayı tercih etmektedirler. Eğer pandemi vakalarının sayısı belirlenmiş bir zamandan önce tahmin edilebilirse, hükümetlerin halk sağlığı ve ekonomi ikilemini daha doğru bir şekilde yönetmeleri için önemli bir rehber olarak kullanılabilir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada 7 gün önceden Covid-19 vakalarını tahmin etmek için yapay sinir ağı (YSA) ve derin öğrenme (uzun-kısa süreli bellek, LSTM ağları) modelleri sunulmuştur. Önerilen modeller Türkiye'nin gerçek verileri üzerinde test edilmiştir. Sonuçlar LSTM modellerinin eğitim seti için hem kümülatif hem de yeni vaka tahminlerinde YSA modellerinden daha iyi performans gösterdiğini göstermiştir. Önerilen modellerin tüm veri seti üzerindeki performansları kıyaslandığında YSA ve LSTM algoritmalarının birbirleri ile rekabet edebilir sonuçlar verdiği gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca hem YSA hem de LSTM modellerinin kümülatif vaka tahmini performanslarının yeni vaka tahminlerinden daha iyi olduğu gözlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Covid-19, Pandemiler, Tahminleme, Yapay Sinir Ağları, Derin Öğrenme, LSTM, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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