Comparative assessment of AHP and FRM approaches for susceptibility mapping of pine processionary moth

Abstract

This study aims to develop susceptibility maps for the Pine Processionary Moth (PPM) via multi-criteria decision-making methodologies. This study utilized data on forest stands affected by PPM damage within the Nurdağı Forest Planning Unit in Gaziantep province from 2018 to 2024. Parameters including stand structure, crown closure, development stage, elevation, slope, aspect, annual mean temperature, solar radiation, and annual mean precipitation parameters were used to create the PPM susceptibility maps according to the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Frequency Ratio Method (FRM). Their precision was evaluated by Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The AHP model indicates that 73% of the forest stands with PPM damage fall into the high and extreme susceptibility groups, whereas the FRM model shows that 68% of such forest stands are similarly categorized. The AUC values for the FRM and AHP models were determined to be 0.830 and 0.835, respectively. The results reveal that the PPM susceptibility maps generated using the AHP and FRM models are reliable.

Keywords

• Annual mean precipitation
• Geographic Information Systems
• ROC
• Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni

Çam kese böceğinin duyarlılık haritalamasında AHP ve FRM yaklaşımlarının karşılaştırmalı değerlendirmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, çok kriterli karar verme metodolojileri kullanılarak Çam Kese Böceği (ÇKB) için duyarlılık haritalarının geliştirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada, Gaziantep ili Nurdağı Orman İşletme Şefliğinde 2018-2024 yıllarındaki ÇKB zararı olan meşcere verileri kullanılmıştır. Meşcere yapısı, kapalılık, gelişim çağı, yükselti, eğim, bakı, yıllık ortalama sıcaklık, güneş radyasyonu ve yıllık ortalama yağış parametreleri ÇKB duyarlılık haritalarının oluşturulmasında kullanılmıştır. ÇKB duyarlılık haritaları Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP) ve Frekans Oranı Yöntemi (FRM) kullanılarak geliştirilmiş ve doğrulukları Göreceli İşletme Karakteristiği (ROC) analizi ile değerlendirilmiştir. AHP modeli, ÇKB zararı olan ormanlık alanların %73'ünün yüksek ve aşırı duyarlılık gruplarına girdiğini gösterirken, FRM modeli bu ormanlık alanların %68'inin benzer şekilde kategorize edildiğini göstermektedir. FRM ve AHP modelleri için AUC değerleri sırasıyla 0,830 ve 0,835 olarak belirlenmiştir. Sonuçlar, AHP ve FRM modelleri kullanılarak oluşturulan ÇKB duyarlılık haritalarının güvenilir sonuçlar verdiğini göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yıllık ortalama yağış
• Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi
• ROC
• Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni

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