The Role of Economic Factors in Turkey's Carbon Neutrality Target

Abstract

Environmental degradation, which has increased in recent years, adversely affects the lives of many living beings in the world. While countries are increasing their level of prosperity, they often ignore the damage they cause to the world. However, climate change and extraordinary weather events that have left their mark on the last decade have once again revealed the seriousness of the problem. Undoubtedly, one of the most important reasons for this situation is the economic activities of the countries. In this context, the aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic growth and financial development on carbon neutrality in Turkey. In the analyses carried out with the data of the 1980-2020 period, the ARDL boundary testing was used to determine the cointegration relationship. FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR cointegration regressions were applied to check the robustness of long-term estimates of the ARDL test. According to the short- and long-term coefficient estimates, both financial development and economic growth positively affect carbon neutrality and prevent Turkey from achieving its carbon neutrality target for 2050. In addition, the validity of the EKC hypothesis for Turkey has been demonstrated. The results of the causality test show the presence of bidirectional causality between all variables in the short and long term. The study provides suggestions for policymakers by contributing to the carbon neutrality literature in Turkey.

Keywords

• Carbon Neutrality
• Financial Development
• Economic Growth
• ARDL

Türkiye’nin Karbon Nötrlüğü Hedefinde Ekonomik Faktörlerin Rolü

Abstract

Son yıllarda artış gösteren çevresel bozulmalar, dünyada pek çok canlının hayatını olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Ülkeler refah düzeylerini artırırken, dünyaya verdikleri zararı çoğu zaman göz ardı etmektedirler. Ancak son on yıla damgasını vuran iklim değişikliği ve sıra dışı hava olayları sorunun ciddiyetini bir kez daha gözler önüne sermiştir. Şüphesiz bu durumun en önemli sebeplerinden birisi ülkelerin ekonomik faaliyetleridir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişmenin karbon nötrlüğü üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. 1980-2020 dönemi verileri ile gerçekleştirilen analizlerde eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla ARDL sınır testi kullanılmıştır. ARDL testi uzun dönem tahminlerinin sağlamlık kontrolü için FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR eşbütünleşme regresyonları uygulanmıştır. Uzun ve kısa dönem katsayı tahminlerine göre hem finansal gelişme hem de ekonomik büyüme karbon nötrlüğünü pozitif yönde etkilemekte ve Türkiye’nin 2050 yılı karbon nötrlüğü hedefine ulaşmasını engellemektedir. Ayrıca Türkiye için EKC hipotezinin geçerliliği ortaya konulmuştur. Nedensellik testi sonuçları kısa ve uzun dönemde tüm değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedenselliğin varlığını göstermektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye’de karbon nötrlüğü literatürüne katkı sağlayarak politika yapıcılar için öneriler sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• ARDL
• Karbon Nötrlüğü
• Finansal Gelişme
• Ekonomik Büyüme

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