An Analysis of the Dynamic Co-movements between External Shocks, International Oil Prices, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from the Wavelet Coherence Approach

Year 2023, , 335 - 353, 02.07.2023

Tuncay Çelik , Mustafa Koçoğlu , Mustafa Duhan Soysal

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1276314

Abstract

The expansionary monetary policies implemented by the central banks in order to get out of the economic stagnation that emerged as a result of economic policy uncertainties, sudden increases or decreases in demand, which emerged with the economic depressions experienced in specific periods, accelerated inflation on a global scale. Therefore, upward inflationary effects emerged in international commodity, food, and energy prices. As a result of this situation, many countries around the world have caused central banks to implement policies that will take measures to combat inflation, while global economic policy uncertainty has brought the question of how to keep the tight relationship between energy prices and money in compensate, in the fights against inflation. In this study, dynamic interactions between global economic policy uncertainty, money supply, international oil prices and inflation in the time and frequency domain are analyzed by Wavelet methods, using monthly data for Turkey between January 2006 and June 2022. It has been observed that global economic policy uncertainty drives international crude oil prices, thus proving the sensitivity of the momentum power on inflation in important historical intervals. In addition, the guiding effects of money supply on inflation in some important historical and event dynamics were determined. These findings provide important implications for policy makers and investors in the Turkiye context.

Keywords

Türkiye, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, International Oil Prices, M2 Money Supply, Inflation, Wavelet transform method.

Dışsal Şoklar, Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları, Para Arzı ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkilerin Analizi: Sürekli Dalgacık Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Abstract

Belirli dönemlerde yaşanan iktisadi buhranlarla birlikte ortaya çıkan ekonomi politika belirsizlikleri, ani talep artışları veya azalışları neticesinde ortaya çıkan ekonomik durgunluktan çıkmak için Merkez Bankalarının uyguladıkları genişleyici para politikaları küresel ölçekte enflasyonu hızlandırmıştır. Dolayısıyla uluslararası emtia, gıda ve enerji fiyatlarında yukarı yönlü enflasyonist etkiler ortaya çıkmıştır. Ortaya çıkan bu durum neticesinde, dünya genelinde birçok ülke merkez bankasının enflasyonla mücadelede önlem oluşturacak politikalar uygulanmasına neden olurken, küresel ekonomi politika belirsizliği, enerji fiyatları ve para miktarındaki sıkı ilişkinin enflasyonla mücadelede nasıl dengede tutulacağı sorusunu da gündeme getirmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için Ocak 2006 ve Haziran 2022 dönemleri arasındaki aylık veriler kullanılarak küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği, para arzı, uluslararası petrol fiyatları ve enflasyon arasındaki zaman ve frekans alanındaki dinamik etkileşimler Wavelet yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin uluslararası ham petrol fiyatlarına yön verdiği görülmüş ve böylece enflasyon üzerindeki momentum gücünün önemli tarih aralıklarındaki duyarlılığı kanıtlanmıştır. Ayrıca para arzının bazı önemli tarih ve olaylar dinamiklerinde enflasyon üzerindeki yönlendirici etkileri de saptanmıştır. Bu bulgular, Türkiye bağlamında politika yapıcılar ve yatırımcılar için önemli çıkarımlar sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

Küresel Ekonomi Politika Belirsizliği, Dalgacık Dönüşümü Yöntemi, M2 Para Arzı, Enflasyon, Uluslararası Petrol Fiyatları

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