İhracat ve Turizm Talebi: Pandemi Döneminde Zayıflayan Güçlü Bir Bağ

Abstract

Bu çalışma geleneksel değişkenlerin yanında ihracat değişkeni içeren turizm talep fonksiyonunu panel veri analizi ile tahmin ederek, Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebi ve dış ticaret ilişkisini ampirik olarak incelemektedir. Sonuçlar; ihracattaki %10’luk artışın ülkeyi ziyaret eden turist sayısını %2.11 artırdığını göstermektedir. Bu pozitif ilişki ticaret bağları sonucunda gelişen; kişiler arası bağlara, ulaşım altyapısına ve destinasyon bilinirliğine bağlanmaktadır. Ancak bu bağlantı doğrusal bir patika izlememektedir. İhracat normal zamanlarda turizmi güçlü bir şekilde etkilese de bu etki hareketliliğin sınırlandığı kriz durumlarında ortadan kalkmaktadır. COVID-19 kısıtlamaları Türkiye’nin turizm ve ticaret bağlantısında yapısal bir kırılmaya neden olmuştur. Ekonometrik modelde yer alan istatistiksel olarak anlamsız ihracat ve pandemi etkileşim değişkeni ticaretin uluslararası hareketliliğin sınırlandığı krizlerde turizmi canlandıramadığını kanıtlamaktadır. Temel bulgular ayrıca kaynak ülke GSYİH’si ve nüfusunun Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebinin birincil belirleyicileri olduğunu ve ihracatın göreli fiyatlara göre talep üzerinde daha büyük etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar bu tip şok durumlarında politika yapıcıların turizm sektörünü desteklemek için uluslararası mobilite koşullarından bağımsız stratejiler geliştirmelerini ve ihracat teşviklerinin fiyat rekabetçiliğine yönelik stratejilere kıyasla talebi uyarmada daha etkili olduğunu ileri sürmektedir.

Keywords

• Turizm ve Ticaret İlişkisi
• İhracat ve Turizm Talebi
• Turizm Talep Fonksiyonu
• Panel Veri Analizi

Exports and Tourism Demand: Evidence of a Strong Link Disrupted by Pandemic Restrictions

Abstract

This study empirically examines the relationship between inbound tourism demand and foreign trade for Türkiye by employing panel data analysis to estimate a tourism demand function that incorporates an export variable alongside conventional determinants. The results reveal that a 10% increase in exports corresponds to a 2.11% rise in tourist arrivals. This positive linkage is attributed to strengthened interpersonal networks, enhanced transportation infrastructure, and greater destination visibility fostered by trade relations. However, this link does not follow a linear pathway. While exports robustly impact tourism under normal conditions, the influence vanishes during crises with mobility restrictions. COVID-19 restrictions caused a structural break for the tourism-trade nexus of Türkiye. The insignificant export-pandemic interaction term employed in the econometric model proves that trade loses its stimulating effect on tourism during international mobility crises. Key findings also highlight that GDP and population size of source countries are the primary determinants of Türkiye’s tourism demand, and exports exert a larger effect than relative prices. Results suggest that policymakers should adopt alternative strategies independent from international mobility conditions to sustain the tourism sector in such shocks, and export promotion may be more effective than price competitiveness strategies in stimulating demand.

Keywords

• Tourism-Trade Nexus
• Exports and Tourism Demand
• Tourism Demand Function
• Panel Data Analysis

Supporting Institution

Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

Ethical Statement

A study conducted for the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye titled “The Effects of Foreign Trade on Foreign Exchange Earnings: The Case of Tourism Sector” provided the empirical basis for this research. Original study have been intensively refined and elaborated with this manuscript.

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